Neural networks complemented with genetic algorithms and fuzzy systems for predicting nitrogenous effluent variables in wastewater treatment plants

This work focuses on the prediction of the two main nitrogenous variables that describe the water quality at the effluent of a Wastewater Treatment Plant. We have developed two kind of Neural Networks architectures based on considering only one output or, in the other hand, the usual five effluent variables that define the water quality: suspended solids, biochemical organic matter, chemical organic matter, total nitrogen and total Kjedhal nitrogen. Two learning techniques based on a classical adaptative gradient and a Kalman filter have been implemented. In order to try to improve generalization and performance we have selected variables by means genetic algorithms and fuzzy systems. The training, testing and validation sets show that the final networks are able to learn enough well the simulated available data specially for the total nitrogen

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Integrating defeasible argumentation with fuzzy ART neural networks for pattern classification

Many classification systems rely on clustering techniques in which a collection of training examples is provided as an input, and a number of clusters c1,...cm modelling some concept C results as an output, such that every cluster ci is labelled as positive or negative. Given a new, unlabelled instance enew, the above classification is used to determine to which particular cluster ci this new instance belongs. In such a setting clusters can overlap, and a new unlabelled instance can be assigned to more than one cluster with conflicting labels. In the literature, such a case is usually solved non-deterministically by making a random choice. This paper presents a novel, hybrid approach to solve this situation by combining a neural network for classification along with a defeasible argumentation framework which models preference criteria for performing clustering.

Modelling bird species richness with neural networks for forest landscape management in NE Spain

Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1 × 1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea.

Generalization transitions in Hidden-Layer neural networks for third-order feature discrimination

Stochastic learning processes for a specific feature detector are studied. This technique is applied to nonsmooth multilayer neural networks requested to perform a discrimination task of order 3 based on the ssT-block¿ssC-block problem. Our system proves to be capable of achieving perfect generalization, after presenting finite numbers of examples, by undergoing a phase transition. The corresponding annealed theory, which involves the Ising model under external field, shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.

Efficient learning of reactive robot behaviors with a Neural-Q_learning approach

The purpose of this paper is to propose a Neural-Q_learning approach designed for online learning of simple and reactive robot behaviors. In this approach, the Q_function is generalized by a multi-layer neural network allowing the use of continuous states and actions. The algorithm uses a database of the most recent learning samples to accelerate and guarantee the convergence. Each Neural-Q_learning function represents an independent, reactive and adaptive behavior which maps sensorial states to robot control actions. A group of these behaviors constitutes a reactive control scheme designed to fulfill simple missions. The paper centers on the description of the Neural-Q_learning based behaviors showing their performance with an underwater robot in a target following task. Real experiments demonstrate the convergence and stability of the learning system, pointing out its suitability for online robot learning. Advantages and limitations are discussed

Volatility smile extrapolation with an artificial neural network

I use a multi-layer feedforward perceptron, with backpropagation learning implemented via stochastic gradient descent, to extrapolate the volatility smile of Euribor derivatives over low-strikes by training the network on parametric prices.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.

Synchronization reveals topological scales in complex networks

We study the relationship between topological scales and dynamic time scales in complex networks. The analysis is based on the full dynamics towards synchronization of a system of coupled oscillators. In the synchronization process, modular structures corresponding to well-defined communities of nodes emerge in different time scales, ordered in a hierarchical way. The analysis also provides a useful connection between synchronization dynamics, complex networks topology, and spectral graph analysis.

Hierarchical neural network with high storage capacity

A recent method used to optimize biased neural networks with low levels of activity is applied to a hierarchical model. As a consequence, the performance of the system is strongly enhanced. The steps to achieve optimization are analyzed in detail.

Percolation of spatially constrained Erdos-R enyi networks with degree correlations

Motivated by experiments on activity in neuronal cultures [J. Soriano, M. Rodr ́ıguez Mart́ınez, T. Tlusty, and E. Moses, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105, 13758 (2008)], we investigate the percolation transition and critical exponents of spatially embedded Erd̋os-Ŕenyi networks with degree correlations. In our model networks, nodes are randomly distributed in a two-dimensional spatial domain, and the connection probability depends on Euclidian link length by a power law as well as on the degrees of linked nodes. Generally, spatial constraints lead to higher percolation thresholds in the sense that more links are needed to achieve global connectivity. However, degree correlations favor or do not favor percolation depending on the connectivity rules. We employ two construction methods to introduce degree correlations. In the first one, nodes stay homogeneously distributed and are connected via a distance- and degree-dependent probability. We observe that assortativity in the resulting network leads to a decrease of the percolation threshold. In the second construction methods, nodes are first spatially segregated depending on their degree and afterwards connected with a distance-dependent probability. In this segregated model, we find a threshold increase that accompanies the rising assortativity. Additionally, when the network is constructed in a disassortative way, we observe that this property has little effect on the percolation transition.

Nature of the Epidemic Threshold for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Dynamics in Networks

We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.