Growth variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a West-East gradient across northern Fennoscandia: a dendroclimatic approach

We performed a spatiotemporal analysis of a network of 21 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) ring-width chronologies in northern Fennoscandia by means of chronology statistics and multivariate analyses. Chronologies are located on both sides (western and eastern) of the Scandes Mountains (67°N-70°N, 15°E-29°E). Growth relationships with temperature, precipitation, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices were calculated for the period 1880-1991. We also assessed their temporal stability. Current July temperature and, to a lesser degree, May precipitation are the main growth limiting factors in the whole area of study. However, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and mean interseries correlation revealed differences in radial growth between both sides of the Scandes Mountains, attributed to the Oceanic-Continental climatic gradient in the area. The gradient signal is temporally variable and has strengthened during the second half of the 20th century. Northern Fennoscandia Scots pine growth is positively related to early winter NAO indices previous to the growth season and to late spring NAO. NAO/growth relationships are unstable and have dropped in the second half of the 20th century. Moreover, they are noncontinuous through the range of NAO values: for early winter, only positive NAO indices enhance tree growth in the next growing season, while negative NAO does not. For spring, only negative NAO is correlated with radial growth.

Daily precipitation concentration across Europe 1971-2010

Daily Precipitation Concentration Index (CI) was used in this paper to investigate the statistical structure of daily precipitation across Europe based on 530 daily rainfall series for the period 1971-2010. Annual CI shows a North- West to South-East gradient (excluding Turkey and Greece). The same gradient is also observed in winter, spring and autumn, while in summer the gradient is North-South. Highest annual and seasonal daily concentrations of rainfall were detected in the western Mediterranean basin, mainly along Spanish and French coastlands. Latitude and distance from the sea seems to play a major role on spatial CI distribution; at subregional scale also relief plays an important role. The Mann-Kendall test did not identify uniform significant pattern in temporal trend across Europe for 1971-2010 period. The only broad areas with increasing annual and seasonal CI values are located in northern and south-western France and northern coastlands of the Iberian Peninsula. This findings suggest that daily precipitation distribution has not significantly changed during the 1971-2010 over Europe.

Quantifying seasonality along a latitudinal gradient: from stream temperature to growth of invasive mosquitofish

Most ecosystems undergo substantial variation over the seasons, ranging from changes in abiotic features, such as temperature, light and precipitation, to changes in species abundance and composition. How seasonality varies along latitudinal gradients is not well known in freshwater ecosystems, despite being very important in predicting the effects of climate change and in helping to advance ecological understanding. Stream temperature is often well correlated with air temperature and influences many ecosystem features such as growth and metabolism of most aquatic organisms. We evaluated the degree of seasonality in ten river mouths along a latitudinal gradient for a set of variables, ranging from air and water temperatures, to physical and chemical properties of water and growth of an invasive fish species (eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki ). Our results show that although most of the variation in air temperature was explained by latitude and season, this was not the case for water features, including temperature, in lowland Mediterranean streams, which depended less on season and much more on local factors. Similarly, although there was evidence of latitude-dependent seasonality in fish growth, the relationship was nonlinear and weak and the significant latitudinal differences in growth rates observed during winter were compensated later in the year and did not result in overall differences in size and growth. Our results suggest that although latitudinal differences in air temperature cascade through properties of freshwater ecosystems, local factors and complex interactions often override the water temperature variation with latitude and might therefore hinder projections of species distribution models and effects of climate change

Extensional flow of nematic liquid crystal under electric field gradient

Systematic asymptotic methods are used to formulate a model for the extensional flow of a thin sheet of nematic liquid crystal. With no external body forces applied, the model is found to be equivalent to the so-called Trouton model for Newtonian sheets (and fi bers), albeit with a modi fied "Trouton ratio". However, with a symmetry-breaking electric field gradient applied, behavior deviates from the Newtonian case, and the sheet can undergo fi nite-time breakup if a suitable destabilizing field is applied. Some simple exact solutions are presented to illustrate the results in certain idealized limits, as well as sample numerical results to the full model equations.

Policy gradient based Reinforcement Learning for real autonomous underwater cable tracking

This paper proposes a field application of a high-level reinforcement learning (RL) control system for solving the action selection problem of an autonomous robot in cable tracking task. The learning system is characterized by using a direct policy search method for learning the internal state/action mapping. Policy only algorithms may suffer from long convergence times when dealing with real robotics. In order to speed up the process, the learning phase has been carried out in a simulated environment and, in a second step, the policy has been transferred and tested successfully on a real robot. Future steps plan to continue the learning process on-line while on the real robot while performing the mentioned task. We demonstrate its feasibility with real experiments on the underwater robot ICTINEU AUV

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Perturbing Hele-Shaw flow with a small gap gradient

A controlled perturbation is introduced into the Saffman-Taylor flow problem by adding a gradient to the gap of a Hele-Shaw cell. The stability of the single-finger steady state was found to be strongly affected by such a perturbation. Compared with patterns in a standard Hele-Shaw cell, the single Saffman-Taylor finger was stabilized or destabilized according to the sign of the gap gradient. While a linear stability analysis shows that this perturbation should have a negligible effect on the early-stage pattern formation, the experimental data indicate that the characteristic length for the initial breakup of a flat interface has been changed by the perturbation.

Assessment of therapeutic benefit of antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C: is hepatic venous pressure gradient a better end point?

Chronic hepatitis C is a major healthcare problem. The response to antiviral therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis C has previously been defined biochemically and by PCR. However, changes in the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) may be considered as an adjunctive end point for the therapeutic evaluation of antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C. It is a validated technique which is safe, well tolerated, well established, and reproducible. Serial HVPG measurements may be the best way to evaluate response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C.

A Fast Gradient Approximation for Nonlinear Blind Signal Processing

When dealing with nonlinear blind processing algorithms (deconvolution or post-nonlinear source separation), complex mathematical estimations must be done giving as a result very slow algorithms. This is the case, for example, in speech processing, spike signals deconvolution or microarray data analysis. In this paper, we propose a simple method to reduce computational time for the inversion of Wiener systems or the separation of post-nonlinear mixtures, by using a linear approximation in a minimum mutual information algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that linear spline interpolation is fast and accurate, obtaining very good results (similar to those obtained without approximation) while computational time is dramatically decreased. On the other hand, cubic spline interpolation also obtains similar good results, but due to its intrinsic complexity, the global algorithm is much more slow and hence not useful for our purpose.

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Thermodynamic stability of nanosized multicomponent bubbles/droplets: The square gradient theory and the capillary approach

Formation of nanosized droplets/bubbles from a metastable bulk phase is connected to many unresolved scientific questions. We analyze the properties and stability of multicomponent droplets and bubbles in the canonical ensemble, and compare with single-component systems. The bubbles/droplets are described on the mesoscopic level by square gradient theory. Furthermore, we compare the results to a capillary model which gives a macroscopic description. Remarkably, the solutions of the square gradient model, representing bubbles and droplets, are accurately reproduced by the capillary model except in the vicinity of the spinodals. The solutions of the square gradient model form closed loops, which shows the inherent symmetry and connected nature of bubbles and droplets. A thermodynamic stability analysis is carried out, where the second variation of the square gradient description is compared to the eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix in the capillary description. The analysis shows that it is impossible to stabilize arbitrarily small bubbles or droplets in closed systems and gives insight into metastable regions close to the minimum bubble/droplet radii. Despite the large difference in complexity, the square gradient and the capillary model predict the same finite threshold sizes and very similar stability limits for bubbles and droplets, both for single-component and two-component systems.

A Gradient based algorithm for blind inversion of Wiener System using multi-variate score functions

A Wiener system is a linear time-invariant filter, followed by an invertible nonlinear distortion. Assuming that the input signal is an independent and identically distributed (iid) sequence, we propose an algorithm for estimating the input signal only by observing the output of the Wiener system. The algorithm is based on minimizing the mutual information of the output samples, by means of a steepest descent gradient approach.