Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.

Characterization of nontypable haemophilus influenzae isolates recovered from adult patients with underlying chronic lung disease reveals genotypic and phenotypic traits associated with persistent infection

Nontypable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) has emerged as an important opportunistic pathogen causing infection in adults suffering obstructive lung diseases. Existing evidence associates chronic infection by NTHi to the progression of the chronic respiratory disease, but specific features of NTHi associated with persistence have not been comprehensively addressed. To provide clues about adaptive strategies adopted by NTHi during persistent infection, we compared sequential persistent isolates with newly acquired isolates in sputa from six patients with chronic obstructive lung disease. Pulse field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) identified three patients with consecutive persistent strains and three with new strains. Phenotypic characterisation included infection of respiratory epithelial cells, bacterial self-aggregation, biofilm formation and resistance to antimicrobial peptides (AMP). Persistent isolates differed from new strains in showing low epithelial adhesion and inability to form biofilms when grown under continuous-flow culture conditions in microfermenters. Self-aggregation clustered the strains by patient, not by persistence. Increasing resistance to AMPs was observed for each series of persistent isolates; this was not associated with lipooligosaccharide decoration with phosphorylcholine or with lipid A acylation. Variation was further analyzed for the series of three persistent isolates recovered from patient 1. These isolates displayed comparable growth rate, natural transformation frequency and murine pulmonary infection. Genome sequencing of these three isolates revealed sequential acquisition of single-nucleotide variants in the AMP permease sapC, the heme acquisition systems hgpB, hgpC, hup and hxuC, the 3-deoxy-D-manno-octulosonic acid kinase kdkA, the long-chain fatty acid transporter ompP1, and the phosphoribosylamine glycine ligase purD. Collectively, we frame a range of pathogenic traits and a repertoire of genetic variants in the context of persistent infection by NTHi.

Brain size and evolutionary diversification in birds

The role of behavior in evolution remains controversial, despite that some ideas are over 100 years old. Changes in behavior are generally believed to enhance evolution by exposing individuals to new selective pressures and by facilitating range expansions. However, this hypothesis lacks firm empirical evidence. Moreover, behavioral changes can also inhibit evolution by hiding heritable variation from natural selection. Taking advantage of the complete phylogeny of extant birds, a new species-level measure of past diversification rate and the best existing measures of brain size (n = 1326 species), I show here that relative brain size is associated (albeit weakly) with diversification rates. Assuming that brain relative size reflects behavioral flexibility, an assumption well-supported by evidence, this finding supports the idea that behavior can enhance evolutionary diversification. This view is further supported by the discovery that the most important factor influencing diversification rates is ecological generalism, which is believed to require behavioral flexibility. Thus, behavioral changes that expose animals to a variety of environments can have played an important role in the evolution of birds.

Firm Size and Geographical Aggregation: An Empirical Appraisal in Industrial Location

This paper assesses empirically the importance of size discrimination and disaggregate data for deciding where to locate a start-up concern. We compare three econometric specifications using Catalan data: a multinomial logit with 4 and 41 alternatives (provinces and comarques, respectively) in which firm size is the main covariate; a conditional logit with 4 and 41 alternatives including attributes of the sites as well as size-site interactions; and a Poisson model on the comarques and the full spatial choice set (942 municipalities) with site-specific variables. Our results suggest that if these two issues are ignored, conclusions may be misleading. We provide evidence that large and small firms behave differently and conclude that Catalan firms tend to choose between comarques rather than between municipalities. Moreover, labour-intensive firms seem more likely to be located in the city of Barcelona. Keywords: Catalonia, industrial location, multinomial response model. JEL: C250, E30, R00, R12

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Study of the influence of grain size and precipitates on the electromagnetic losses in different grades of non-oriented fully processed electrical steel

The study was performed in the installations of OCAS, a Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal. Taking M32 steel (3.25%Si+0.9%Al) as the basis chemical composition and three different thicknesses (0.35, 0.5 and 0.65mm), different annealing conditions (temperature and time) have been applied in the laboratory simulator at St. Chély, France. The aim was to link annealing parameters, grain size and energy loss. It was determined the optimum annealing parameters to reach the lowest power losses for three different grades of non-oriented fully processed electrical steel. In addition, M250-50 samples having different magnetic behaviour (high and low losses) but the same grain size and texture, have been analyzed in terms of TEM observations of their precipitates, in the University of Marseille. The results reveal that a high amount of medium and big precipitates (&10 nm) worsen the magnetic properties of the material. The small precipitates (&10nm) do not have a strong influence on the magnetic properties. The presence of precipitates can have a great influence on the power losses and further work is clearly necessary.

Interactions between grain size and composition of sediments: two examples

Two contrasting case studies of sediment and detrital mineral composition are investigated in order to outline interactions between chemical composition and grain size. Modern glacial sediments exhibit a strong dependence of the two parameters due to the preferential enrichment of mafic minerals, especially biotite, in the fine-grained fractions. On the other hand, the composition of detrital heavy minerals (here: rutile) appears to be not systematically related to grain-size, but is strongly controlled by location, i.e. the petrology of the source rocks of detrital grains. This supports the use of rutile as a well-suited tracer mineral for provenance studies. The results further suggest that (i) interpretations derived from whole-rock sediment geochemistry should be flanked by grain-size observations, and (ii) a more sound statistical evaluation of these interactions require the development of new tailor-made statistical tools to deal with such so-called two-way compositions

Openness, government size and the terms of trade

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

The size and distribution of donations: Effects of numbers of potential recipients

Whereas much literature exists on choice overload, little is known about effects of numbers of alternatives in donation decisions. How do these affect both the size and distribution of donations? We hypothesize that donations are affected by the reputation of recipients and increase with their number, albeit at a decreasing rate. Allocations to recipients reflect different concepts of fairness equity and equality. Both may be employed but, since they differ in cognitive and emotional costs, numbers of recipients are important. Using a cognitive (emotional) argument, distributions become more uniform (skewed) as numbers increase. In a survey, respondents indicated how they would donate lottery winnings of 50 Euros. Results indicated that more was donated to NGO s that respondents knew better. Second, total donations increased with the number of recipients albeit at a decreasing rate. Third, distributions of donations became more skewed as numbers increased. We comment on theoretical and practical implications.

Systematic study of the static electrical properties of the CO molecule: influence of the basis set size and correlation energy

The influence of the basis set size and the correlation energy in the static electrical properties of the CO molecule is assessed. In particular, we have studied both the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the static molecular electrical properties, the vibrational Stark effect (VSE) and the vibrational intensity effect (VIE). From a mathematical point of view, when a static and uniform electric field is applied to a molecule, the energy of this system can be expressed in terms of a double power series with respect to the bond length and to the field strength. From the power series expansion of the potential energy, field-dependent expressions for the equilibrium geometry, for the potential energy and for the force constant are obtained. The nuclear relaxation and vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties are analyzed in terms of the derivatives of the electronic molecular properties. In general, the results presented show that accurate inclusion of the correlation energy and large basis sets are needed to calculate the molecular electrical properties and their derivatives with respect to either nuclear displacements or/and field strength. With respect to experimental data, the calculated power series coefficients are overestimated by the SCF, CISD, and QCISD methods. On the contrary, perturbation methods (MP2 and MP4) tend to underestimate them. In average and using the 6-311 + G(3df) basis set and for the CO molecule, the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties amount to 11.7%, 3.3%, and 69.7% of the purely electronic μ, α, and β values, respectively

Spatial and temporal variation of natural toxicity in cnidarians, bryozoans and tunicates in Mediterranean caves

The natural toxicity of cnidarians, bryozoans and tunicates in two caves was assessed using the Microtox® technique in spring and autumn. One cave was located in the Cabrera Archipelago (Balearic Islands) and the other in the Medes Islands (Catalan littoral). The organisms analysed were good representatives of the coverage of each Phylum in the communities; however, these Phyla are less abundant than sponges which are the dominant group in these caves. Seventy-one percent of the species of cnidarians and bryozoans analysed were toxic in one of the caves, communities or seasons, which indicates the relevance of bioactive species in these groups. The tunicate Lissoclinum perforatum was the most toxic species. Although all three Phyla had some highly toxic species, a common pattern that related the caves, communities and seasons was not found. Seasonal variation of toxicity in cnidarians and bryozoans was higher in the Cabrera than in the Medes cave. Moreover, variation in toxicity either between communities or between seasons was a common trait for most cnidarians and bryozoans, whereas tunicates remained toxic throughout communities and seasons.

Influence of average size and interface passivation on the spectral emission of Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2

The correlation between the structural (average size and density) and optoelectronic properties [band gap and photoluminescence (PL)] of Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2 is among the essential factors in understanding their emission mechanism. This correlation has been difficult to establish in the past due to the lack of reliable methods for measuring the size distribution of nanocrystals from electron microscopy, mainly because of the insufficient contrast between Si and SiO2. With this aim, we have recently developed a successful method for imaging Si nanocrystals in SiO2 matrices. This is done by using high-resolution electron microscopy in conjunction with conventional electron microscopy in dark field conditions. Then, by varying the time of annealing in a large time scale we have been able to track the nucleation, pure growth, and ripening stages of the nanocrystal population. The nucleation and pure growth stages are almost completed after a few minutes of annealing time at 1100°C in N2 and afterward the ensemble undergoes an asymptotic ripening process. In contrast, the PL intensity steadily increases and reaches saturation after 3-4 h of annealing at 1100°C. Forming gas postannealing considerably enhances the PL intensity but only for samples annealed previously in less time than that needed for PL saturation. The effects of forming gas are reversible and do not modify the spectral shape of the PL emission. The PL intensity shows at all times an inverse correlation with the amount of Pb paramagnetic centers at the Si-SiO2 nanocrystal-matrix interfaces, which have been measured by electron spin resonance. Consequently, the Pb centers or other centers associated with them are interfacial nonradiative channels for recombination and the emission yield largely depends on the interface passivation. We have correlated as well the average size of the nanocrystals with their optical band gap and PL emission energy. The band gap and emission energy shift to the blue as the nanocrystal size shrinks, in agreement with models based on quantum confinement. As a main result, we have found that the Stokes shift is independent of the average size of nanocrystals and has a constant value of 0.26±0.03 eV, which is almost twice the energy of the Si¿O vibration. This finding suggests that among the possible channels for radiative recombination, the dominant one for Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2 is a fundamental transition spatially located at the Si¿SiO2 interface with the assistance of a local Si-O vibration.

Semiquantitative RT-PCR measurement of gene expression in rat tissues including a correction for varying cell size and number

Background: Current methodology of gene expression analysis limits the possibilities of comparison between cells/tissues of organs in which cell size and/or number changes as a consequence of the study (e.g. starvation). A method relating the abundance of specific mRNA copies per cell may allow direct comparison or different organs and/or changing physiological conditions. Methods: With a number of selected genes, we analysed the relationship of the number of bases and the fluorescence recorded at a present level using cDNA standards. A lineal relationship was found between the final number of bases and the length of the transcript. The constants of this equation and those of the relationship between fluorescence and number of bases in cDNA were determined and a general equation linking the length of the transcript and the initial number of copies of mRNA was deduced for a given pre-established fluorescence setting. This allowed the calculation of the concentration of the corresponding mRNAs per g of tissue. The inclusion of tissue RNA and the DNA content per cell, allowed the calculation of the mRNA copies per cell. Results: The application of this procedure to six genes: Arbp, cyclophilin, ChREBP, T4 deiodinase 2, acetyl-CoA carboxylase 1 and IRS-1, in liver and retroperitoneal adipose tissue of food-restricted rats allowed precise measures of their changes irrespective of the shrinking of the tissue, the loss of cells or changes in cell size, factors that deeply complicate the comparison between changing tissue conditions. The percentage results obtained with the present methods were essentially the same obtained with the delta-delta procedure and with individual cDNA standard curve quantitative RT-PCR estimation. Conclusion: The method presented allows the comparison (i.e. as copies of mRNA per cell) between different genes and tissues, establishing the degree of abundance of the different molecular species tested.