The behavior of money velocity in low and high inflation countries

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand where the velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant as in standard cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). The model provides an explanation of why, for a sample of 79 countries, the correlation between the velocity of money and the inflation rate appears to be low, unlike common wisdom would suggest. The reason is the diverse transaction technologies available in different economies.

A Data mining approach to indirect inference

Consider a model with parameter phi, and an auxiliary model with parameter theta. Let phi be a randomly sampled from a given density over the known parameter space. Monte Carlo methods can be used to draw simulated data and compute the corresponding estimate of theta, say theta_tilde. A large set of tuples (phi, theta_tilde) can be generated in this manner. Nonparametric methods may be use to fit the function E(phi|theta_tilde=a), using these tuples. It is proposed to estimate phi using the fitted E(phi|theta_tilde=theta_hat), where theta_hat is the auxiliary estimate, using the real sample data. This is a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimator, under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo results for dynamic panel data and vector autoregressions show that this estimator can have very attractive small sample properties. Confidence intervals can be constructed using the quantiles of the phi for which theta_tilde is close to theta_hat. Such confidence intervals are found to have very accurate coverage.

Extended truncated Tweedie-Poisson model

It has been argued that by truncating the sample space of the negative binomial and of the inverse Gaussian-Poisson mixture models at zero, one is allowed to extend the parameter space of the model. Here that is proved to be the case for the more general three parameter Tweedie-Poisson mixture model. It is also proved that the distributions in the extended part of the parameter space are not the zero truncation of mixed poisson distributions and that, other than for the negative binomial, they are not mixtures of zero truncated Poisson distributions either. By extending the parameter space one can improve the fit when the frequency of one is larger and the right tail is heavier than is allowed by the unextended model. Considering the extended model also allows one to use the basic maximum likelihood based inference tools when parameter estimates fall in the extended part of the parameter space, and hence when the m.l.e. does not exist under the unextended model. This extended truncated Tweedie-Poisson model is proved to be useful in the analysis of words and species frequency count data.

Weak and Strong Altruism in Trait Groups: Reproductive Suicide, Personal Fitness, and Expected Value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as the mechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductive suicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness while augmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingent suicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphic with a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition to contingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibit continuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usually thought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however, support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs before life history events associated with effective altruism; reproductive suicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu West Eberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuously expressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpreted as probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, without benefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive" suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter space relative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

Circulation of private notes during a currency shortage

This paper provides a search theoretical model that captures two phenomena that have characterized several episodes of monetary history: currency shortages and the circulation of privately issued notes. As usual in these models, the media of exchange are determined as part of the equilibrium. We characterize all the different equilibria and specify the conditions under which there is a currency shortage and/or privately issued notes are used as means of payment. There is multiplicity of equilibria for the entire parameter space, but there always exist an equilibrium in which notes circulate, either alone or together with coins. Hence, credit is a self-fulfilling phenomenon that depends on the beliefs of agents about the acceptability and future repayment of notes. The degree of circulation of coins depends on two crucial parameters, the intrinsic utility of holding coins and the extent with which it is possible to find exchange opportunities in the market.

The variability of money velocity in a generalized cash-in-advance model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand wherethe velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant and equal to one as in cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). Despite its simplicity, in terms of paramaters to calibrate, the model performs surprisingly well. In particular, it approximates the variability of money velocity observed in the U.S. for the post-war period. The model is then used to analyze the welfare costs of inflation under uncertainty. This application calculates the errors derived from computing the costs of inflation with deterministic models. It turns out that the size of this difference is small, at least for the levels of uncertainty estimated for the U.S. economy.

Quantum metric spaces as a model for pregeometry

A new arena for the dynamics of spacetime is proposed, in which the basic quantum variable is the two-point distance on a metric space. The scaling dimension (that is, the Kolmogorov capacity) in the neighborhood of each point then defines in a natural way a local concept of dimension. We study our model in the region of parameter space in which the resulting spacetime is not too different from a smooth manifold.

Black holes as fundamental strings: Comparing the absorption of scalars

The recently proposed correspondence principle of Horowitz and Polchinski provides a concrete means to relate (among others) black holes with electric Neveu-SchwarzNeveu-Schwarz charges to fundamental strings and correctly match their entropies. We further test this correspondence by examining the greybody factors in the absorption rates of neutral, minimally coupled scalars by a near extremal black hole. Perhaps surprisingly, the results disagree in general with the absorption by weakly coupled strings. Though this does not disprove the correspondence, it indicates that it might not be simple in this region of the black hole parameter space.

Quantum metric spaces as a model for pregeometry

A new arena for the dynamics of spacetime is proposed, in which the basic quantum variable is the two-point distance on a metric space. The scaling dimension (that is, the Kolmogorov capacity) in the neighborhood of each point then defines in a natural way a local concept of dimension. We study our model in the region of parameter space in which the resulting spacetime is not too different from a smooth manifold.

Metastable liquid-liquid phase transition in a single-component system with only one crystal phase and no density anomaly

We investigate the phase behavior of a single-component system in three dimensions with spherically-symmetric, pairwise-additive, soft-core interactions with an attractive well at a long distance, a repulsive soft-core shoulder at an intermediate distance, and a hard-core repulsion at a short distance, similar to potentials used to describe liquid systems such as colloids, protein solutions, or liquid metals. We showed [Nature (London) 409, 692 (2001)] that, even with no evidence of the density anomaly, the phase diagram has two first-order fluid-fluid phase transitions, one ending in a gas¿low-density-liquid (LDL) critical point, and the other in a gas¿high-density-liquid (HDL) critical point, with a LDL-HDL phase transition at low temperatures. Here we use integral equation calculations to explore the three-parameter space of the soft-core potential and perform molecular dynamics simulations in the interesting region of parameters. For the equilibrium phase diagram, we analyze the structure of the crystal phase and find that, within the considered range of densities, the structure is independent of the density. Then, we analyze in detail the fluid metastable phases and, by explicit thermodynamic calculation in the supercooled phase, we show the absence of the density anomaly. We suggest that this absence is related to the presence of only one stable crystal structure.

Criteria for hitting probabilities with applications to systems of stochastic wave equations

We develop several results on hitting probabilities of random fields which highlight the role of the dimension of the parameter space. This yields upper and lower bounds in terms of Hausdorff measure and Bessel-Riesz capacity, respectively. We apply these results to a system of stochastic wave equations in spatial dimension k >- 1 driven by a d-dimensional spatially homogeneous additive Gaussian noise that is white in time and colored in space.

Two component systems: physiological effect of a third component

Signal transduction systems mediate the response and adaptation of organisms to environmental changes. In prokaryotes, this signal transduction is often done through Two Component Systems (TCS). These TCS are phosphotransfer protein cascades, and in their prototypical form they are composed by a kinase that senses the environmental signals (SK) and by a response regulator (RR) that regulates the cellular response. This basic motif can be modified by the addition of a third protein that interacts either with the SK or the RR in a way that could change the dynamic response of the TCS module. In this work we aim at understanding the effect of such an additional protein (which we call ‘‘third component’’) on the functional properties of a prototypical TCS. To do so we build mathematical models of TCS with alternative designs for their interaction with that third component. These mathematical models are analyzed in order to identify the differences in dynamic behavior inherent to each design, with respect to functionally relevant properties such as sensitivity to changes in either the parameter values or the molecular concentrations, temporal responsiveness, possibility of multiple steady states, or stochastic fluctuations in the system. The differences are then correlated to the physiological requirements that impinge on the functioning of the TCS. This analysis sheds light on both, the dynamic behavior of synthetically designed TCS, and the conditions under which natural selection might favor each of the designs. We find that a third component that modulates SK activity increases the parameter space where a bistable response of the TCS module to signals is possible, if SK is monofunctional, but decreases it when the SK is bifunctional. The presence of a third component that modulates RR activity decreases the parameter space where a bistable response of the TCS module to signals is possible.

Supergravity models of (3+1)-dimensional QCD

The most general black M5-brane solution of eleven-dimensional supergravity (with a flat R4 spacetime in the brane and a regular horizon) is characterized by charge, mass and two angular momenta. We use this metric to construct general dual models of large-N QCD (at strong coupling) that depend on two free parameters. The mass spectrum of scalar particles is determined analytically (in the WKB approximation) and numerically in the whole two-dimensional parameter space. We compare the mass spectrum with analogous results from lattice calculations, and find that the supergravity predictions are close to the lattice results everywhere on the two dimensional parameter space except along a special line. We also examine the mass spectrum of the supergravity Kaluza-Klein (KK) modes and find that the KK modes along the compact D-brane coordinate decouple from the spectrum for large angular momenta. There are however KK modes charged under a U(1)×U(1) global symmetry which do not decouple anywhere on the parameter space. General formulas for the string tension and action are also given.

Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented