The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

Regular wave propagation out of noise in chemical active media

A pacemaker, regularly emitting chemical waves, is created out of noise when an excitable photosensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky medium, strictly unable to autonomously initiate autowaves, is forced with a spatiotemporal patterned random illumination. These experimental observations are also reproduced numerically by using a set of reaction-diffusion equations for an activator-inhibitor model, and further analytically interpreted in terms of genuine coupling effects arising from parametric fluctuations. Within the same framework we also address situations of noise-sustained propagation in subexcitable media.

Spatiotemporal order out of noise

Experimental observations of self-organized behavior arising out of noise are also described, and details on the numerical algorithms needed in the computer simulation of these problems are given.

Regular wave propagation out of noise in chemical active media

A pacemaker, regularly emitting chemical waves, is created out of noise when an excitable photosensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky medium, strictly unable to autonomously initiate autowaves, is forced with a spatiotemporal patterned random illumination. These experimental observations are also reproduced numerically by using a set of reaction-diffusion equations for an activator-inhibitor model, and further analytically interpreted in terms of genuine coupling effects arising from parametric fluctuations. Within the same framework we also address situations of noise-sustained propagation in subexcitable media.

Spatiotemporal order out of noise

Experimental observations of self-organized behavior arising out of noise are also described, and details on the numerical algorithms needed in the computer simulation of these problems are given.

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Most of the Abundant Protein Fractions of Embryonic Cerebrospinal Fluid are Produced Out of the Brain Anlagen

The microenvironment of the central nervous system is important for neuronal function and development. During the early stages of embryo development the cephalic vesicles are filled by embryonic cerebrospinal fluid, a complex fluid containing different protein fractions, which contributes to the regulation of the survival, proliferation and neurogenesis of neuroectodermal stem cells. The protein content of embryonic cerebrospinal fluid from chick and rat embryos at the start of neurogenesis has already been determined. Most of the identified gene products are thought to be involved in the regulation of developmental processes during embryogenesis. However, due to the crucial roles played by embryonic cerebrospinal fluid during brain development, the embryological origin of the gene products it contains remains an intriguing question. According to the literature most of these products are synthesised in embryonic tissues other than the neuroepithelium. In this study we examined the embryological origin of the most abundant embryonic cerebrospinal fluid protein fractions by means of slot-blot analysis and by using several different embryonic and extraembryonic protein extracts, immunodetected with polyclonal antibodies. This first attempt to elucidate their origin is not based on the proteins identified by proteomic methods, but rather on crude protein fractions detected by SDS-PAGE analysis and to which polyclonal antibodies were specifically generated. Despite some of the limitations of this study, i.e. that one protein fraction may contain more than one gene product, and that a specific gene product may be contained in different protein fractions depending on post-translational modifications, our results show that most of the analysed protein fractions are not produced by the cephalic neuroectoderm but are rather stored in the egg reservoir; furthermore, few are produced by embryo tissues, thus indicating that they must be transported from their production or storage sites to the cephalic cavities, most probably via embryonic serum. These results raise the question as to whether the transfer of proteins from these two embryo compartments is regulated at this early developmental stage.

SGCE: Sistema de Gestió i Control d'Equips

Aquest projecte es presenta com una solució al problema aparegut per la implantació de l'estació clínica de treball, e-CAP, en els centres d'atenció primària del servei d'atenció primària de la població de l’Hospitalet del Llobregat. La solució desenvolupada és una aplicació Web que proporciona la funcionalitat requerida per a dur a terme el control de l'equip informàtic, així com la gestió de les incidències. Aquesta aplicació Web està enfocada al personal d'atenció a l'usuari dels centres anomenats anteriorment amb la supervisió del departament de Sistemes d'Informació de cada servei d'atenció primària.

Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Can You Home Again? Desertion and Control of Hometowns in Civil Wars

What allows an armed group in a civil war to prevent desertion? This paper addresses this question with a focus on control in the rearguard. Most past studies focus on motivations for desertion. They explain desertion in terms of where soldiers stand in relation to the macro themes of the war, or in terms of an inability to provide positive incentives to overcome the collective action problem. However, since individuals decide whether and how to participate in civil wars for multiple reasons, responding to a variety of local conditions in an environment of threat and violence, a focus only on macro-level motivations is incomplete. The opportunities side of the ledger deserves more attention. I therefore turn my attention to how control by an armed group eliminates soldiers’ opportunities to desert. In particular, I consider the control that an armed group maintains over soldiers’ hometowns, treating geographic terrain as an important exogenous indicator of the ease of control. Rough terrain at home affords soldiers and their families and friends advantages in ease of hiding, the difficulty of using force, and local knowledge. Based on an original dataset of soldiers from Santander Province in the Spanish Civil War, gathered from archival sources, I find statistical evidence that the rougher the terrain in a soldier’s home municipality, the more likely he is to desert. I find complementary qualitative evidence indicating that soldiers from rough-terrain communities took active advantage of their greater opportunities for evasion. This finding has important implications for the way observers interpret different soldiers’ decisions to desert or remain fighting, for the prospect that structural factors may shape the cohesion of armed groups, and for the possibility that local knowledge may be a double-edged sword, making soldiers simultaneously good at fighting and good at deserting.

Predictive motion control of a mirosot mobile robot

This paper discusses predictive motion control of a MiRoSoT robot. The dynamic model of the robot is deduced by taking into account the whole process - robot, vision, control and transmission systems. Based on the obtained dynamic model, an integrated predictive control algorithm is proposed to position precisely with either stationary or moving obstacle avoidance. This objective is achieved automatically by introducing distant constraints into the open-loop optimization of control inputs. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of such control strategy for the deduced dynamic model

The impact of firing costs on turnover and unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian labour market reform

Reductions in firing costs are often advocated as a way of increasingthe dynamism of labour markets in both developed and less developed countries. Evidence from Europe and the U.S. on the impact of firing costs has, however, been mixed. Moreover, legislative changes both in Europe and the U.S. have been limited. This paper, instead, examines the impact of the Colombian Labour Market Reform of 1990, which substantially reduced dismissal costs. I estimate the incidence of a reduction in firing costs on worker turnover by exploiting the temporal change in the Colombian labour legislation as well as the variability in coverage between formal and informal sector workers. Using a grouping estimator to control for common aggregate shocks and selection, I find that the exit hazard rates into and out of unemployment increased after the reform by over 1% for formal workers (covered by the legislation) relative to informal workers (uncovered). The increase of the hazards implies a net decrease in unemployment of a third of a percentage point, which accounts for about one quarter of the fall in unemployment during the period of study.

Reconfigurable Architecture To Estimate The Motion Of An Underwater Vehicle

This work proposes a parallel architecture for a motion estimation algorithm. It is well known that image processing requires a huge amount of computation, mainly at low level processing where the algorithms are dealing with a great numbers of data-pixel. One of the solutions to estimate motions involves detection of the correspondences between two images. Due to its regular processing scheme, parallel implementation of correspondence problem can be an adequate approach to reduce the computation time. This work introduces parallel and real-time implementation of such low-level tasks to be carried out from the moment that the current image is acquired by the camera until the pairs of point-matchings are detected

Adverse side effects of statins in the oral cavity

Increased plasma levels of cholesterol are high risk factors of cardiovascular disease. Statins are drugs that inhibit cholesterol synthesis at both pancreatic and extrahepathic levels, being the treatment of choice for hypercholesterolemia. Objective: To analyze the side effects of statins in the mouth cavity, and to analyze the symptoms after interruption of the treatment. Design: Observational study, preliminary. Material and methods: Patients aged 50-70, diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia and undergoing treatment with statins, referred from their primary care physician to the dentist"s office. Anamnesis over oral symptoms was performed in the first visit. Statin treatment was discontinued, followed by lab tests and control visits seven and fifteen days later. We monitored the improvement and/or remission of oral symptoms. Statin treatment was resumed, sending out a report of the patient evolution to the PCP. Symptoms were registered in sheet specially designed for the study. Exclusion criteria: patient refusal, use of drugs for dry mouth treatment, Sjögren"s syndrome. Results: n=26 patients. Dry mouth patients: improvement in 17 out of 23 patients (88.5%). Itchiness: 6 out of 15 cases improved (57.7%). Bitterness: improvement in 13 out of 14 patients (53.8%). Cough: improvement in 11 out of 12 patients (46.1%). Discussion: A high percentage of oral symptoms are associated to treatment with statins. There is a marked improvement after temporary interruption of the treatment. Little is known regarding the side effects of oral treatment with statins. This preliminary study includes a relatively small number of patients. The design of experimental treatments will be required to establish a true correlation between statin treatment and oral symptoms

Diseño e implementación de una Web dinámica como herramienta para el control de obras en base al coste del proceso de construcción

En la actualidad estamos sufriendo una situación de crisis económica de dimensiones desproporcionadas e inusuales, la cual está obligando a todas las empresas a globalizar en mayor medida el ámbito de actuación de sus negocios, por lo que muchas empresas que trabajaban exclusivamente en el ámbito local o nacional han tenido que expandirse hacia el exterior. Este hecho, añadido a la fortísima competencia existente en el mercado, obligará a todas estas empresas a tener que controlar en mayor medida la actividad productiva, y a hacerlo utilizando tecnologías que faciliten el flujo de la información dentro de la empresa, hagan que la distancia no sea un problema para la transmisión de esa información, y con las que todos los usuarios manejen los mismos datos. El sector de la construcción es uno de los más castigados por la citada crisis, y probablemente uno de los más retrasados en lo que respecta a utilización de Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es el diseño e implementación de una web dinámica como herramienta para medir la eficiencia en el control de la actividad productiva de una empresa constructora. La manera de medir esta eficiencia será mediante la comparación mensual de los costes previstos para las diferentes obras que deba ejecutar la empresa (los cuales podemos llamar estándar) y los que se vayan produciendo realmente. La herramienta diseñada podría ir aumentando su utilidad si, añadiendo módulos mediante la ampliación de la base de datos y diseñando las pertinentes nuevas páginas web para el sitio, se usa también para otros menesteres además del control de la actividad productiva por comparación entre costes previstos y reales. Es decir, que se podría llegar a gestionar la información de todas las actividades de la empresa (compras, recursos humanos, contabilidad, gestión de calidad, etc.). Por lo tanto, una web dinámica como la expuesta en el trabajo podría servir como semilla para el desarrollo de un ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning).