Memoria – beca BE2005

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Centre for Interdisciplinary studies in Environment and Development (CISED), located in Bangalore (Southern India), from September to December 2005. A field-work in the South Indian city of Chennai (former Madras) was developed to analyse the mounting urban (and peri-urban) water crisis. In view of tackling this matter, the state government has done a deal to construct a 100 million litres per day seawater desalination plant. Due to its relative energy-intensiveness (compared to conventional water supply means), the fact that such a large capacity plant will be located in poor country such as India, constitutes somewhat of a surprising novelty, as most desalination facilities in the world are to be found in the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries. This work faces the environmental impact, the energy-intensive technology required, the cost and the missed water management options

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

Historiografía occidental y mitología prehispánica en la novela histórica latinoamericana

Hacia fines del siglo XX, en Latinoamérica se publica una gran producción de novelas calificadas como históricas, notable cuantitativa y cualitativamente. Sus novedosas propuestas y las diferencias que guarda respecto a las características tradicionales del género, provocan un cuestionamiento crítico respecto a la categoría de novela histórica. En general, las producciones recientes problematizan las posibilidades del conocimiento histórico, como también las posibilidades del lenguaje para expresar ese conocimiento. Además, contienen una fuerte crítica hacia el discurso historiográfico oficial y recurren a la historia, no como producto acabado o dato, sino como procedimiento narrativo y cognoscitivo. Esto les permite trascender la referencia histórica local –sin excluirla – para remitir de manera más amplia a la historiografía y a la historia como portadores de la verdad sobre el pasado. La investigación analiza un corpus de novelas argentinas de finales del siglo pasado indagando los conceptos de historia y ficción propuestos por los textos.

Rethinking economy-wide rebound measures: an unbiased proposal

In spite of having been first introduced in the last half of the ninetieth century, the debate about the possible rebound effects from energy efficiency improvements is still an open question in the economic literature. This paper contributes to the existing research on this issue proposing an unbiased measure for economy-wide rebound effects. The novelty of this economy-wide rebound measure stems from the fact that not only actual energy savings but also potential energy savings are quantified under general equilibrium conditions. Our findings indicate that the use of engineering savings instead of general equilibrium potential savings downward biases economy-wide rebound effects and upward-biases backfire effects. The discrepancies between the traditional indicator and our proposed measure are analysed in the context of the Spanish economy.

An empirical analysis of a merger between a network and low-cost airlines

We use a difference-in-difference estimator to examine the effects of a merger involving three airlines. The novelty lies in the examination of this operation in two distinct scenarios: (1) on routes where two low-cost carriers and (2) on routes where a network and one of the low-cost airlines had previously been competing. We report a reduction in frequencies but no substantial effect on prices in the first scenario, while in the second we report an increase in prices but no substantial effect on frequencies. These results may be attributed to the differences in passenger types flying on these routes.

Mission control system for dam inspection with an AUV

This paper presents a complete control architecture that has been designed to fulfill predefined missions with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The control architecture has three levels of control: mission level, task level and vehicle level. The novelty of the work resides in the mission level, which is built with a Petri network that defines the sequence of tasks that are executed depending on the unpredictable situations that may occur. The task control system is composed of a set of active behaviours and a coordinator that selects the most appropriate vehicle action at each moment. The paper focuses on the design of the mission controller and its interaction with the task controller. Simulations, inspired on an industrial underwater inspection of a dam grate, show the effectiveness of the control architecture

Equidistribution estimates for Fekete points on complex manifolds

We study the equidistribution of Fekete points in a compact complex manifold. These are extremal point configurations defined through sections of powers of a positive line bundle. Their equidistribution is a known result. The novelty of our approach is that we relate them to the problem of sampling and interpolation on line bundles, which allows us to estimate the equidistribution of the Fekete points quantitatively. In particular we estimate the Kantorovich-Wasserstein distance of the Fekete points to its limiting measure. The sampling and interpolation arrays on line bundles are a subject of independent interest, and we provide necessary density conditions through the classical approach of Landau, that in this context measures the local dimension of the space of sections of the line bundle. We obtain a complete geometric characterization of sampling and interpolation arrays in the case of compact manifolds of dimension one, and we prove that there are no arrays of both sampling and interpolation in the more general setting of semipositive line bundles.

Domestic and International Research Joint Ventures: The Effect of Collusion

We analyze the effect of research joint ventures (RJVs) on consumer welfare in an international context when collusion can occur. The main novelty of our analysis is to study the differentiated effect of domestic and international RJVs. The recent literature shows that RJVs with collusion harm consumers. However, our results introduce a qualifi cation to this statement: international RJVs with collusion might be bene ficial for consumers when internationalization costs are high. The EU and US competition policy advises against RJVs that facilitate collusion on the grounds of their expected negative effects. Our results suggest that antitrust authorities should distinguish between domestic and international RJVs and, in certain cases, be more benevolent with international RJVs. Keywords: collusion; domestic research joint venture; international research joint venture JEL Classi fication Numbers: K21, L24, L44, O32

Multi-scale label interaction to improve object detection and segmentation

The project aims at advancing the state of the art in the use of context information for classification of image and video data. The use of context in the classification of images has been showed of great importance to improve the performance of actual object recognition systems. In our project we proposed the concept of Multi-scale Feature Labels as a general and compact method to exploit the local and global context. The feature extraction from the discriminative probability or classification confidence label field is of great novelty. Moreover the use of a multi-scale representation of the feature labels lead to a compact and efficient description of the context. The goal of the project has been also to provide a general-purpose method and prove its suitability in different image/video analysis problem. The two-year project generated 5 journal publications (plus 2 under submission), 10 conference publications (plus 2 under submission) and one patent (plus 1 pending). Of these publications, a relevant number make use of the main result of this project to improve the results in detection and/or segmentation of objects.

LdShake: learning design solutions sharing and co-edition

Two important challenges that teachers are currently facing are the sharing and the collaborative authoring of their learning design solutions, such as didactical units and learning materials. On the one hand, there are tools that can be used for the creation of design solutions and only some of them facilitate the co-edition. However, they do not incorporate mechanisms that support the sharing of the designs between teachers. On the other hand, there are tools that serve as repositories of educational resources but they do not enable the authoring of the designs. In this paper we present LdShake, a web tool whose novelty is focused on the combined support for the social sharing and co-edition of learning design solutions within communities of teachers. Teachers can create and share learning designs with other teachers using different access rights so that they can read, comment or co-edit the designs. Therefore, each design solution is associated to a group of teachers able to work on its definition, and another group that can only see the design. The tool is generic in that it allows the creation of designs based on any pedagogical approach. However, it can be particularized in instances providing pre-formatted designs structured according to a specific didactic method (such as Problem-Based Learning, PBL). A particularized LdShake instance has been used in the context of Human Biology studies where teams of teachers are required to work together in the design of PBL solutions. A controlled user study, that compares the use of a generic LdShake and a Moodle system, configured to enable the creation and sharing of designs, has been also carried out. The combined results of the real and controlled studies show that the social structure, and the commenting, co-edition and publishing features of LdShake provide a useful, effective and usable approach for facilitating teachers' teamwork.

The significance of distributive effects in social assessment of health care

In this paper we address the importance of distributive effects in the social valuation of QALY's. We propose a social welfarefunction that generalises the functions traditionally used in the health economic literature. The novelty is that, depending on the individual health gains, our function can representeither preferences for concentrating or preferences for spreading total gain or both together, an issue which has notbeen addressed until now. Based on an experiment, we observe that this generalisation provides a suitable approximation tothe sampled social preferences.

Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP

The well-known lack of power of unit root tests has often been attributed to the shortlength of macroeconomic variables and also to DGP s that depart from the I(1)-I(0)alternatives. This paper shows that by using long spans of annual real GNP and GNPper capita (133 years) high power can be achieved, leading to the rejection of both theunit root and the trend-stationary hypothesis. This suggests that possibly neither modelprovides a good characterization of these data. Next, more flexible representations areconsidered, namely, processes containing structural breaks (SB) and fractional ordersof integration (FI). Economic justification for the presence of these features in GNP isprovided. It is shown that the latter models (FI and SB) are in general preferred to theARIMA (I(1) or I(0)) ones. As a novelty in this literature, new techniques are appliedto discriminate between FI and SB models. It turns out that the FI specification ispreferred, implying that GNP and GNP per capita are non-stationary, highly persistentbut mean-reverting series. Finally, it is shown that the results are robust when breaksin the deterministic component are allowed for in the FI model. Some macroeconomicimplications of these findings are also discussed.

Effects of convection on the removal of the multiplicity of stable states in one-dimensional vertical models

Here I develop a model of a radiative-convective atmosphere with both radiative and convective schemes highly simplified. The atmospheric absorption of radiation at selective wavelengths makes use of constant mass absorption coefficients in finite width spectral bands. The convective regime is introduced by using a prescribed lapse rate in the troposphere. The main novelty of the radiative-convective model developed here is that it is solved without using any angular approximation for the radiation field. The solution obtained in the purely radiation mode (i. e. with convection ignored) leads to multiple equilibria of stable states, being very similar to some results recently found in simple models of planetary atmospheres. However, the introduction of convective processes removes the multiple equilibria of stable states. This shows the importance of taking convective processes into account even for qualitative analyses of planetary atmosphere

Estudi estratègic del coblisme com a bé cultural

Aquest treball de final de carrera tracta sobre l’aplicació de les modernes tècniques de reflexió estratègica aplicades al sector de la cultura popular catalana, concretament la cultura popular catalana que engloba les manifestacions on el vincle comú és la formació musical pròpia: la cobla. Aprofitar aquest sector, a priori tant complex i tant allunyat en principi del món d’estratègia d’empresa com aquest, és l’excusa per veure el comportament d’aquestes eines i teories, i comprovar-ne la seva eficàcia i adaptabilitat als diferents casos de la realitat, a més de poder treballar un tema tant nou com la valoració d’intangibles. A la vegada, es produeix una síntesi de treballs orientats a l’organització d’entitats sense ànim de lucre existents en la bibliografia especialitzada, i que han tingut un inexistent ressò pràctic. Això pot ser un contrasentit en un país on l’associacionisme és tan arrelat i un dels pilars socials que ens vertebren i diferencien. En el cas de la música per a cobla, especialment destacable en un moment molt important i crític per estar en un temps de transició social molt fort. També, cal destacar vivament que té una sèrie de valors afegits de qualitat i complexitat que la situen en un interessant camí entre la cultura popular i les propostes de caràcter més comercial, en unes condicions actuals de gran desconeixement social. Les vinculacions entre estratègia, innovació, responsabilitat social i cultura del coneixement, donen a aquest treball un fort caràcter actual i adaptat a la realitat en les consideracions sobre el management en general.

Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.