Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Strong minimax lower bounds for learning

Minimax lower bounds for concept learning state, for example, thatfor each sample size $n$ and learning rule $g_n$, there exists a distributionof the observation $X$ and a concept $C$ to be learnt such that the expectederror of $g_n$ is at least a constant times $V/n$, where $V$ is the VC dimensionof the concept class. However, these bounds do not tell anything about therate of decrease of the error for a {\sl fixed} distribution--concept pair.\\In this paper we investigate minimax lower bounds in such a--stronger--sense.We show that for several natural $k$--parameter concept classes, includingthe class of linear halfspaces, the class of balls, the class of polyhedrawith a certain number of faces, and a class of neural networks, for any{\sl sequence} of learning rules $\{g_n\}$, there exists a fixed distributionof $X$ and a fixed concept $C$ such that the expected error is larger thana constant times $k/n$ for {\sl infinitely many n}. We also obtain suchstrong minimax lower bounds for the tail distribution of the probabilityof error, which extend the corresponding minimax lower bounds.

Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

A Sparse Bayesian Approach for Joint Feature Selection and Classifier Learning

Peer-reviewed

Defining the criteria for the evaluation of self-study multimedia language learning materials: do they facilitate or inhibit learner autonomy?

Durant els darrers anys, s’han publicat un gran nombre de materials multimèdia destinats a l’aprenentatge de llengües, la major part dels quals son CD-ROM dissenyats com a cursos per l’autoaprenentatge. Amb aquests materials, els alumnes poden treballar independentment sense l’assessorament d’un professor, i per aquest motiu s’ha afirmat que promouen i faciliten l’aprenentatge autònom. Aquesta relació, però, no es certa, com Phil Benson i Peter Voller 1997:10) han manifestat encertadament:(…) Such claims are often dubious, however, because of the limited range of options and roles offered to the learner. Nevertheless, technologies of education in the broadest sense can be considered to be either more or less supportive of autonomy. The question is what kind of criteria do we apply in evaluating them? En aquest article presentem una investigació conjunta on es defineixen els criteris que poden ser utilitzats per avaluar materials multimèdia en relació a la seva facilitat per permetre l’aprenentatge autònom. Aquests criteris son la base d’un qüestionari que s’ha emprat per avaluar una selecció de CD-ROM destinats a l’autoaprenentatge de llengües. La estructura d’aquest article és la següent: - Una introducció de l’estudi - Els criteris que s’han utilitzar per la creació del qüestionari - Els resultats generals de l’avaluació - Les conclusions que s’han extret i la seva importància pel disseny instructiu multimèdia

Investigating independent language learning in classroom-based EFL Learners

La recerca efectuada sobre les estratègies d’aprenentatge de llengües ha demostrat que els aprenents que utilitzen estratègies metacognitives (planificació, revisió i avaluació) desenvolupen estratègies cognitives més eficaces (Anderson, 2002). Aquest article descriu les activitats que 43 estudiants de llengua estrangera de la Universitat de Vic van emprendre de forma independent i dedueix les estratègies metacognitives que van utilitzar sense cap formació prèvia en estratègies. Els estudiants van completar un dossier on expressaven les necessitats d’aprenentatge, la planificació i supervisió de les activitats i finalment l’avaluació de l’aprenentatge que havien portat a terme de manera independent fora de les hores lectives. La primera fase de l’anàlisi de les dades revela que, tot i que els estudiants foren capaços d’expressar les necessitats d’aprenentatge en general, la formulació d’objectius i la supervisió de les activitats fou escassa. La discussió gira entorn de la formació dels estudiants de llengües estrangeres en estratègies metacognitives i la integració de l’aprenentatge autònom dins el currículum docent.

Eliciting and fostering learners' metacognitive knowledge about language learning in self-directed learning programs: a review of data collection methods and procedures

Són molts els estudis que avui en dia incideixen en la necessitat d’oferir un suport metodològic i psicològic als aprenents que treballen de manera autònoma. L’objectiu d’aquest suport és ajudar-los a desenvolupar les destreses que necessiten per dirigir el seu aprenentatge així com una actitud positiva i una major conscienciació envers aquest aprenentatge. En definitiva, aquests dos tipus de preparació es consideren essencials per ajudar els aprenents a esdevenir més autònoms i més eficients en el seu propi aprenentatge. Malgrat això, si bé és freqüent trobar estudis que exemplifiquen aplicacions del suport metodològic dins els seus programes, principalment en la formació d’estratègies o ajudant els aprenents a desenvolupar un pla de treball, aquest no és el cas quan es tracta de la seva preparació psicològica. Amb rares excepcions, trobem estudis que documentin com s’incideix en les actituds i en les creences dels aprenents, també coneguts com a coneixement metacognitiu (CM), en programes que fomenten l’autonomia en l’aprenentatge. Els objectius d’aquest treball son dos: a) oferir una revisió d’estudis que han utilitzat diferents mitjans per incidir en el CM dels aprenents i b) descriure les febleses i avantatges dels procediments i instruments que utilitzen, tal com han estat valorats en estudis de recerca, ja que ens permetrà establir criteris objectius sobre com i quan utilitzar-los en programes que fomentin l’aprenentatge autodirigit.

Learning from errors

We present a model of learning in which agents learn from errors. If an action turns out to be an error, the agent rejects not only that action but also neighboring actions. We find that, keepng memory of his errors, under mild assumptions an acceptable solution is asymptotically reached. Moreover, one can take advantage of big errors for a faster learning.

Una Aproximació a la construcció significativa del coneixement matemàtic a l'ESO

This study displays and analyzes the contents of the Mathematics subject in ESO’s second cycle from a constructivist perspective. This analysis has been carried out by contrasting two groups of participants (control group and experimental group). These groups were formed by a sample of 240 students between the ages of 14 and 16 from four different educational centres of the Osona area. Research – Action methodology has been employed, combining quantitative techniques (statistical study with the SPSS package) with qualitative analysis (transcriptions of interviews and discussion group). This study has been carried out after years of classroom observation, reflection and action. The theoretical framework employed is a cognitive one, based on Ausubel’s Significative Learning Theory. Quantitative analysis shows how the researcher’s design improves, on the one hand, the students’ academic motivation and, on the other hand, their comprehensive memory, enabling them to achieve a more significant learning of the subjects’ contents. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the proposed method is more comprehensive than those employed by teachers collaborating with control groups. The main aim of the qualitative analysis is that of identifying the elements which configure the programme and contribute to an improvement of the aspects mentioned above. The key elements here are: co-operation as the basis of group dynamics; the employment, in some cases, of easily handled materials; the type of interaction between teacher and students, where, through open discussion, students are lead by teaching staff towards the course objectives; induction, that is, deducing formulae by initially using examples which are close to the students’ knowledge and experience or taken from everyday life (what we could call “down-top” mathematics). We should add here that the qualitative analysis does not only corroborate the results obtained by quantitative techniques, but also displays an increase of motivation in teaching staff. Teachers did show a positive attitude and welcomed the use and development of these materials in the next academic year. Finally, we discuss possible directions for further research.

Learning the ropes and embracing the rules: CFSP institutions as arenas for learning and strategic socialisation

The aim of this article is to analyse those situations in which learning and socialisation take place within the context of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), in particular, at the level of experts in the Council Working Groups. Learning can explain the institutional development of CFSP and changes in the foreign policies of the Member States. Some scope conditions for learning and channels of institutionalisation are identified. Socialisation, resulting from learning within a group, is perceived as a strategic action by reflective actors. National diplomats, once they arrive in Brussels, learn the new code of conduct of their Working Groups. They are embedded in two environments and faced with two logics: the European one in the Council and the national one in the Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFA). The empirical evidence supports the argument that neither rational nor sociological approaches alone can account for these processes.

Learning from Shocks and the Decision to Open

Two claims pervade the literature on the political economy of market reforms: that economic crises cause reforms; and that crises matter because they bring into question the validity of the economic model held to be responsible for them. Economic crises are said to spur a process of learning that is conducive to the abandonment of failing models and to the adoption of successful models. But although these claims have become the conventional wisdom, they have been hardly tested empirically due to the lack of agreement on what constitutes a crisis and to difficulties in measuring learning from them. I propose a model of rational learning from experience and apply it to the decision to open the economy. Using data from 1964 through 1990, I show that learning from the 1982 debt crisis was relevant to the first wave of adoption of an export promotion strategy, but learning was conditional on the high variability of economic outcomes in countries that opened up to trade. Learning was also symbolic in that the sheer number of other countries that liberalized was a more important driver of others’ decisions to follow suit.

Stock market volatility and learning

Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

Rendimiento neuropsicológico y anomalías del cuerpo callosoen adolescentes con antecedentes de prematuridad

Existe una clara relación entre prematuridad y un bajo rendimiento cognitivo y escolar. Sin embargo, los efectos concretos del nacimiento prematuro sobre el funcionamiento cognitivo así como sobre el desarrollo cerebral a largo plazo son poco conocidos. Objetivos: Identificar las disfunciones cognitivas concretas en adolescentes que nacieron prematuros mediante una evaluación neuropsicológica exhaustiva, y relacionar los datos cognitivos con la posible afectación del cuerpo calloso. Metodología y Resultados: se comparó dos muestras de sujetos prematuros y sujetos nacidos a término. Se evaluó el rendimiento cognitivo general y específico, y se cuantificó la estructura cerebral del cuerpo calloso. Se realizaron varios análisis estadísticos y se redactaron diversos artículos presentando los resultados obtenidos. Resultados: adolescentes con antecedentes de prematuridad: a) presentan dificultades cognitivas y anormalidades estructurales, más relacionadas con la edad gestacional que con el peso al nacer; b) tienen déficits cognitivos específicos que pueden explicarse parcialmente por sus disfunciones en el rendimiento cognitivo general; c) la media de sus puntuaciones en el CI se sitúa en el rango normal; d) los subtests de las escalas Wechsler no presentan el mismo grado de sensibilidad; e) presentan una reducción de tamaño del cuerpo calloso, f) más acusada en el genu, posterior midbody y splenium; g) existe una asociación específica entre el genu y el menor rendimiento en funciones del lóbulo prefrontal; h) la edad gestacional presenta una clara relación con las anormalidades del cuerpo calloso y con el bajo rendimiento cognitivo general.

The role of attention in multisensory integration processes

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of Queensland, Australia, between June to October 2007. The integration of sensory information coming from different modalities is a subjectively effortless and automatic process. However, recent findings converge on the idea that there might be some limitations on how much multisensory information can our brains integrate at a given moment. The overall objective of this research visit was to expand and reinforce our current line of research addressing the role that attention plays on the mechanisms responsible for multisensory integration. There is also a critical review of the literature as well as a list of research questions of potential interest in the area of the neuropsychology of multisensory attention.