Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Multilocus sequence analysis reveals the genetic diversity of European fruit tree phytoplasmas and supports the existence of inter-species recombination

The genetic diversity of three temperate fruit tree phytoplasmas ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma prunorum’, ‘Ca. P. mali’ and ‘Ca. P. pyri’ has been established by multilocus sequence analysis. Among the four genetic loci used, the genes imp and aceF distinguished 30 and 24 genotypes, respectively, and showed the highest variability. Percentage of substitution for imp ranged from 50 to 68% according to species. Percentage of substitution varied between 9 and 12% for aceF, whereas it was between 5 and 6% for pnp and secY. In the case of ‘Ca P. prunorum’ the three most prevalent aceF genotypes were detected in both plants and insect vectors, confirming that the prevalent isolates are propagated by insects. The four isolates known to be hypo-virulent had the same aceF sequence, indicating a possible monophyletic origin. Haplotype network reconstructed by eBURST revealed that among the 34 haplotypes of ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, the four hypo-virulent isolates also grouped together in the same clade. Genotyping of some Spanish and Azerbaijanese ‘Ca. P. pyri’ isolates showed that they shared some alleles with ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, supporting for the first time to our knowledge, the existence of inter-species recombination between these two species.

A Comparative study of germination strategies of two species of genus Allium sect. Allium

Germination experiments were performed with seeds of two species of genus Allium section Allium, a rare and endangered species A. pyrenaicum and a common A. sphaerocephalon. Different pre-treatments and a photoperiod of 24 h darkness were applied in order to simulate different germination conditions. Both species showed a high percentage of viable seeds a part of which were dormant. An elevate percentage of dormant seeds could be caused by a later collection time. Low altitude populations had more mortality than the others, possibly caused by the hard summer conditions during flowering and fruiting time. Comparisons between dates of species coexistence localities only show inter-population variability and it could be caused by the detected dormancy. Darkness accelerates germination, possibly for elongation radicle stimulation. Heat-shock pre-treatments decreased germination time in seeds from localities where fire is a probable event. The rarity of A. Pyrenaicum not seems to be caused by restricted germination requirements but is attributable to distinct habitat preferences, related to his altitudinal range of distribution

Seed morphology of Iberian Species of the genus Aconitum L.

Es presenta un estudi morfològic-biomètric de les granes deis taxons del genere Aconitum L. presents a la Península Ibérica. Es tracten aspectes que fan referencia a: 1) disposició de les granes al fol-licle, 2) definido de paramètres (forma general i ornamentado de l'episperma), 3) biometria i 4) descripció de les granes deis représentants ibérics. Els microcaràcters relacionats fonamentalment amb el relleu epispérmic, forma i ornamentado de la base d'inserció (hílum i cél-lules umbil-licals), son els que es mostren mes utils per discriminar els taxons i els que proporcionen mes informado filogenética. Els résultats que s'exposen coincideixen, en línies generals, amb els d'altres autors (SEITZ, 1969; CAPPELETTI & POLDINI, 1984). Es presenten, tanmateix, discrepancies importants pel que fa a la morfología seminal, en especial de l'ornamentació de l'episperma, en les especies A. anthora, A. napellus s.l., A. burnatii i A. vulparia subsp. ranunculifoiium. Es presenta, sovint, polimorfisme seminal en les diferentes poblacions, aïllades geogràficament, d'una mateixa especie o subspècie, tant en el context ibèric com d'Europa central i meridional. Es conclou que aquest polimorfisme és una manifestado mes de la plasticitat fenotípica del genere, particularment intensa en les especies colonitzadores d'àmplia valencia ecológica (A. napellus, s.l.; A. vulparia, s.l.), possiblement conseqiiència de la deriva genética de les poblacions.

A fully validated method for the determination of arsenic species in rice and infant cereal products

A full validation of inorganic arsenic (iAs), methylarsonic acid (MA), and dimethyl arsinic acid (DMA) in several types of rice and rice-based infant cereals is reported. The analytical method was developed and validated in two laboratories. The extraction of the As species was performed using nitric acid 0.2 % and hydrogen peroxide 1 %, and the coupled system liquid chromatography-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LCICP-MS) was used for speciation measurements. Detection limit (DL), quantification limit, linearity, precision, trueness, accuracy, selectivity, as well as expanded uncertainty for iAs, MA, and DMA were established. The certified reference materials (CRMs) (NMIJ 7503a, NCS ZC73008, NIST SRM 1568a) were used to check the accuracy. The method was shown to be satisfactory in two proficiency tests (PTs). The broad applicability of the method is shown from the results of analysis of 29 samples including several types of rice, rice products, and infant cereal products. Total As ranged from 40.1 to 323.7 μg As kg1. From the speciation results, iAs was predominant, and DMA was detected in some samples while MA was not detected in any sample.

A need for determination of arsenic species at low levels in cereal-based food and infant cereals. Validation of a method by LC-ICPMS.

The present study arose from the need to determine inorganic arsenic (iAs) at low levels in cereal-based food. Validated methods with a low limit of detection (LOD) are required to analyse these kinds of food. An analytical method for the determination of iAs, methylarsonic acid (MA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) in cereal-based food and infant cereals is reported. The method was optimised and validated to achieve low LODs. Ion chromatography-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LC-ICPMS) was used for arsenic speciation. The main quality parameters were established. To expand the applicability of the method, different cereal products were analysed: bread, biscuits, breakfast cereals, wheat flour, corn snacks, pasta and infant cereals. The total and inorganic arsenic content of 29 cereal-based food samples ranged between 3.7-35.6 and 3.1-26.0 microg As kg-1, respectively. The present method could be considered a valuable tool for assessing inorganic arsenic contents in cereal-based foods.

Ecology of Armillaria species on silver fir (Abies alba) in the Spanish Pyrenees

We describe the distribution and the ecology of three Armillaria species observed in silver fir (Abies alba) forests of the Pyrenees. We surveyed the presence and abundance of Armillaria above and belowground in 29 stands. Isolates were identified by the PCR-RFLP pattern of the IGS-1 region of their ribosomal DNA. We measured several ecological and management parameters of each stand in order to describe Armillaria infected sites. Armillaria cepistipes was the most abundant of three species observed. Armillaria gallica was dominant in soils with a higher pH and at lower elevations. Armillaria ostoyae seemed to be more frequent in stands where A. alba recently increased its dominance relative to other forest tree species. Thinning activities correlated with an increased abundance of Armillaria belowground. In 83% of the stands the same Armillaria species was observed above and belowground. It seems that in a conifer forest, A. cepistipes can be more frequent than A. ostoyae, a virulent conifer pathogen. Since logging is related to a higher abundance of Armillaria in the soil, the particular Armillaria species present in a given stand could be considered an additional site factor when making management decisions.

Comparative genomics of yeast species: new insights into their biology

The genomes of two hemiascomycetous yeasts (Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Candida albicans) and one archiascomycete (Schizosaccharomyces pombe) have been completely sequenced and the genes have been annotated. In addition, the genomes of 13 more Hemiascomycetes have been partially sequenced. The amount of data thus obtained provides information on the evolutionary relationships between yeast species. In addition, the differential genetic characteristics of the microorganisms explain a number of distinctive biological traits. Gene order conservation is observed between phylogenetically close species and is lost in distantly related species, probably due to rearrangements of short regions of DNA. However, gene function is much more conserved along evolution. Compared to S. cerevisiae and S. pombe, C. albicans has a larger number of specific genes, i.e., genes not found in other organisms, a fact that can account for the biological characteristics of this pathogenic dimorphic yeast which is able to colonize a large variety of environments.

A need for determination of arsenic species at low levels in cereal-based food and infant cereals. Validation of a method by LC-ICPMS.

The present study arose from the need to determine inorganic arsenic (iAs) at low levels in cereal-based food. Validated methods with a low limit of detection (LOD) are required to analyse these kinds of food. An analytical method for the determination of iAs, methylarsonic acid (MA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) in cereal-based food and infant cereals is reported. The method was optimised and validated to achieve low LODs. Ion chromatography-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LC-ICPMS) was used for arsenic speciation. The main quality parameters were established. To expand the applicability of the method, different cereal products were analysed: bread, biscuits, breakfast cereals, wheat flour, corn snacks, pasta and infant cereals. The total and inorganic arsenic content of 29 cereal-based food samples ranged between 3.7-35.6 and 3.1-26.0 microg As kg-1, respectively. The present method could be considered a valuable tool for assessing inorganic arsenic contents in cereal-based foods.

The morphology and reproductive structures of Mediterranean species of the genus Nemastoma J. Agardh, nom. cons. (Nemastomataceae, Nemastomatales): Nemastoma dichotomum and N. dumontioides

The morphology and reproductive structures of Mediterranean species of the genus Nemastoma J. Agardh, nom. cons. (Nemastomataceae, Nemastomatales): Nemastoma dichotomum and N. dumontioides

The Problem of Invasive Species in River Ecosystems

Invasive nonnative species are a major problem in river ecosystems, and have large ecological and economic costs. Few ecosystems can resist invasions. The species that tend to invade most readily are those that humans. Introduce the most, and the ecosystems they invade are those with the most human activity. Most invasions are irreversible, and control is expensive, so efforts should be focused on prevention of future invasions