A Data mining approach to indirect inference

Consider a model with parameter phi, and an auxiliary model with parameter theta. Let phi be a randomly sampled from a given density over the known parameter space. Monte Carlo methods can be used to draw simulated data and compute the corresponding estimate of theta, say theta_tilde. A large set of tuples (phi, theta_tilde) can be generated in this manner. Nonparametric methods may be use to fit the function E(phi|theta_tilde=a), using these tuples. It is proposed to estimate phi using the fitted E(phi|theta_tilde=theta_hat), where theta_hat is the auxiliary estimate, using the real sample data. This is a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimator, under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo results for dynamic panel data and vector autoregressions show that this estimator can have very attractive small sample properties. Confidence intervals can be constructed using the quantiles of the phi for which theta_tilde is close to theta_hat. Such confidence intervals are found to have very accurate coverage.

Using free data mining software and clustering algorithms to find predictors from student qualifications

In this project a research both in finding predictors via clustering techniques and in reviewing the Data Mining free software is achieved. The research is based in a case of study, from where additionally to the KDD free software used by the scientific community; a new free tool for pre-processing the data is presented. The predictors are intended for the e-learning domain as the data from where these predictors have to be inferred are student qualifications from different e-learning environments. Through our case of study not only clustering algorithms are tested but also additional goals are proposed.

From the “Mining Triangle” to the “Greater Region“ (“Großregion”/”Grande Région”). The Institutionalisation of the “SaarLorLux” Euroregion

Gairebé 182 milions d'ciutadans de la Unió Europea (= 37,5% de la població total) viuen en aproximadament 130 regions frontereres i transfrontereres. Aquestes regions contribueixen significativament al procés d'integració europea. Aquesta importància es documenta pel paquet dels Fons Estructurals 2007-2013, que ha estat presentat per la Comissió Europea i que va ser aprovat recentment pel Parlament Europeu. Considerant que la UE ha gastat uns 4875 € milions per a la cooperació transfronterera, transnacional i interregional en el marc de la iniciativa Interreg per al període 2000-2006, la cooperació territorial europea es convertirà en un dels tres objectius dels fons estructurals i rebrà € 7750000000 (5,57 milions d'euros per a la cooperació transfronterera només) per al període 2007-2013 (Comissió Europea, 2006a, 2006b). A part d'això, un nou conjunt de normes per a l'establiment d'una "agrupació europea de cooperació territorial" (AECT) ha estat adoptat i que facilitarà la cooperació transboundray, transnacional i interregional a la UE. Aquest treball s'ocuparà de les estructures de la institucionalització, la presa de decisions i l'execució i les polítiques de la "Gran Regió" / "Großregion" (d'ara endavant: GR o Gran Regió).

Las Finanzas autonómicas en boom y en crisis (2003-12)

En esta nota se introducen algunos ajustes a los datos presupuestarios disponibles sobre los ingresos y los gastos de las comunidades autónomas con el fin de corregir las distorsiones generadas por la forma en la que se han contabilizado algunas partidas. Las series ajustadas se utilizan para analizar la evolución de las finanzas regionales durante la crisis actual y la parte final de la expansión precedente. El ejercicio ayuda a poner en perspectiva la actual controversia sobre las finanzas autonómicas. En ella se suele poner el acento en la dureza de los recortes de los últimos ejercicios, olvidando la temeraria explosión del gasto durante los años anteriores al comienzo de la crisis. Cuando se toma el período en su conjunto, el proceso de consolidación presupuestaria que comienza en 2010 aparece como una corrección parcial y tardía de los excesos de años anteriores. De cara al futuro, convendría tomar medidas que ayuden a hacer menos procíclico el patrón de gasto autonómico. Aunque esto ya se hace en parte en la nueva Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria, se argumenta que sería conveniente crear un Fondo de Estabilización Presupuestaria para facilitar el alisamiento del gasto regional.

Mining and exploiting domain-specific corpora in the PANACEA platform

The objective of the PANACEA ICT-2007.2.2 EU project is to build a platform that automates the stages involved in the acquisition,production, updating and maintenance of the large language resources required by, among others, MT systems. The development of a Corpus Acquisition Component (CAC) for extracting monolingual and bilingual data from the web is one of the most innovative building blocks of PANACEA. The CAC, which is the first stage in the PANACEA pipeline for building Language Resources, adopts an efficient and distributed methodology to crawl for web documents with rich textual content in specific languages and predefined domains. The CAC includes modules that can acquire parallel data from sites with in-domain content available in more than one language. In order to extrinsically evaluate the CAC methodology, we have conducted several experiments that used crawled parallel corpora for the identification and extraction of parallel sentences using sentence alignment. The corpora were then successfully used for domain adaptation of Machine Translation Systems.

The housing boom and forest fires

This paper provides evidence that the combination of land-use restrictions and anincreasing demand for housing can create incentives to induce forest fires as a means tocircumvent regulation and increase the supply of land available for residential construction.I estimate the effect of the price of housing on the incidence of forest fires using Spanishdata by region for 1991-2005. The results suggest that higher house prices led to asignificant increase in the incidence of forest fires in a region. I also find that the increasedincidence of forest fires led to a subsequent reduction in forest area and an increase in urbanland area. This evidence supports the claims often found in the media that propertyspeculators trying to build in forest land may be behind the recent increases in the incidenceof forest fires in Mediterranean countries.

El boom de la calidad en las empresas españolas

In this article we analyze the impact of the implementation on Quality Management Systems (QMS) in the Spanish industry. In order to do it, we study the implementation of the famous standard ISO 9000 and the EFQM model in Spain compared with its impact in the rest of the UE-25. In spite of analyzing the motivations and the results obtained after the implementation of these Quality Management Systems, we present the results of a Delphi?s national study

Iron mining in Goa (India) : an interdisciplinary study

En aquest article es presenten breument els diferents capítols d’un treball interdisciplinari per tal d’entendre el context de prohibició de la mineria de ferro a Goa a finals del 2012 i proporcionar la informació necessària per tal d’orientar i gestionar la presa de decisions sobre l’activitat minera en un futur. Els sis primers capítols consisteixen en l’estudi del medi abiòtic, medi biòtic, fluxos de materials, aspectes socials, aspectes econòmics i finalment aspectes polítics. En canvi, en els dos últims capítols s'avaluen i es gestionen els impactes ambientals de la mineria mitjançant, per una banda, una anàlisi DPSIR i, d'altra banda, es proposen tres escenaris per integrar les diferents variables i fomentar la participació en la presa de decisions. S’ha dut a terme una extensa recerca mitjançant la recopilació de dades, entrevistes i visites a les zones d’estudi d’interès per tal d’entendre el conflicte de la mineria a Goa.

Destination image of Girona: an online text-mining approach

The main objective of this Master Thesis is to discover more about Girona’s image as a tourism destination from different agents’ perspective and to study its differences on promotion or opinions. In order to meet this objective, three components of Girona’s destination image will be studied: attribute-based component, the holistic component, and the affective component. It is true that a lot of research has been done about tourism destination image, but it is less when we are talking about the destination of Girona. Some studies have already focused on Girona as a tourist destination, but they used a different type of sample and different methodological steps. This study is new among destination studies in the sense that it is based only on textual online data and it follows a methodology based on text-miming. Text-mining is a kind of methodology that allows people extract relevant information from texts. Also, after this information is extracted by this methodology, some statistical multivariate analyses are done with the aim of discovering more about Girona’s tourism image

Educational data mining and learning analytics : Clasificación de las matriculaciones de A.D.E. en la UOC

Trabajo de investigación que realiza un estudio clasificatorio de las asignaturas matriculadas en la carrera de Administración y Dirección de Empresas de la UOC en relación a su resultado. Se proponen diferentes métodos y modelos de comprensión del entorno en el que se realiza el estudio.

Las consecuencias del Boom inmobiliario. Cambios en la densidad de las metrópolis españolas, 2001-2007

Después de un período de crecimiento urbanístico desorbitado es oportuno hacer un primer balance de las consecuencias que este hecho ha tenido sobre la estructura espacial de las principales urbes españolas. Un elemento básico de análisis es las variaciones que se han operado sobre la densidad de población. En el presente artículo se estudian estas transformaciones mediante modelos econométricos de densidad urbana. Las metrópolis investigadas son Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Bilbao y Zaragoza y el periodo temporal abarca desde 2001 a 2007. Los resultados indican, para las metrópolis más pobladas, cambios significativos en los parámetros, y en dos casos en la propia forma funcional de la densidad.

Banks, Lies and Bricks: The Determinants of Home Value Inflation in Spain during the Housing Boom

During the first decade of this century, Spain experienced the most important economic and housing boom in its recent history. This situation led the lending industry to dramatically expand through the mortgage market. The high competition among lenders caused a dramatic lowering of credit standards. During this period, lenders operating in the Spanish mortgage market artificially inflated appraised home values in order to draw larger mortgages. By doing this, lenders gave financially constrained households access to mortgage credit. In this paper, we analyze this phenomenon for this first time. To do so, we resort to a unique dataset of matched mortgage-dwelling-borrower characteristics covering the period 2004–2010. Our data allow us to construct an unbiased measure of property’s over-appraisal, since transaction prices in our data also includes any potential side payment in the transactions. Our findings indicate that i) in Spain, appraised home values were inflated on average by around 30% with respect to transaction prices; ii) creditconstrained households were more likely to be involved in mortgages with inflated house values; and iii) a regional indicator of competition in the lending market suggests that inflated appraisal values were also more likely to appear in more competitive regional mortgage markets. Keywords: Housing demand, appraisal values, house prices, housing bubble, credit constraints, mortgage market. JEL Classification: R21, R31

Educational Data Mining: cerrando el círculo del proceso de aprendizaje en entornos virtuales

Development of methods to explore data from educational settings, to understand better the learning process.

Data mining and mall users profile

Marketing scholars have suggested a need for more empirical research on consumer response to malls, in order to have a better understanding of the variables that explain the behavior of the consumers. The segmentation methodology CHAID (Chi-square automatic interaction detection) was used in order to identify the profiles of consumers with regard to their activities at malls, on the basis of socio-demographic variables and behavioral variables (how and with whom they go to the malls). A sample of 790 subjects answered an online questionnaire. The CHAID analysis of the results was used to identify the profiles of consumers with regard to their activities at malls. In the set of variables analyzed the transport used in order to go shopping and the frequency of visits to centers are the main predictors of behavior in malls. The results provide guidelines for the development of effective strategies to attract consumers to malls and retain them there.