Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

R&D poverty traps

In this paper we show that the R&D effort of a country and its economic growth are highly correlated. In order to analyze this relationship, we study the nature of the researching activity. In particular, we focus on the following characteristics of research: the inherent uncertainty of researching, the existence of a wage premium associated to innovative activities, and moral hazard. Assuming that a higher R&D effort translates into a higher R&D success probability, we show that when the R&D success probability is low, the economy is not willing to bear the risk associated to R&D activities. As a consequence, few researchers are hired and the economy stays in an R&D poverty trap, a situation where the economy is stacked in a low growth environment due to the uncertainty associated with the researching activity.

R&D poverty traps

In this paper we show that the R&D effort of a country and its economic growth are highly correlated. In order to analyze this relationship, we study the nature of the researching activity. In particular, we focus on the following characteristics of research: the inherent uncertainty of researching, the existence of a wage premium associated to innovative activities, and moral hazard. Assuming that a higher R&D effort translates into a higher R&D success probability, we show that when the R&D success probability is low, the economy is not willing to bear the risk associated to R&D activities. As a consequence, few researchers are hired and the economy stays in an R&D poverty trap, a situation where the economy is stacked in a low growth environment due to the uncertainty associated with the researching activity.

On the relation between tax rates and evasion in a multi-period economy

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static setups. Moreover, high tax rates on income are typically associated with low growth rates as occurs in standard growth models that disregard the tax evasion phenomenon.

The biophysical perspective of a middle income economy: material flows in Mexico

We analyse natural resource use dynamics in the Mexican economy during the last three decades. Despite low and uneven economic growth, the extraction and use of materials in the Mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years. In this period, population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth. In addition, fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors, in manufacturing, and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials. Mexico’s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets. In the 1970s, Mexico mainly exported primary resources. This pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries. In contrast with other Latin American countries, Mexico has achieved a diversification of production, moving towards technology-intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio. However, crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good. Mexico’s material consumption is still well below the OECD average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of Mexico’s economy and community. Information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in Mexico.

Environmental Tax on Products and Services Based on Their Carbon Footprint: A Case Study of the Pulp and Paper Sector

The main aim of this work is to define an environmental tax on products and services based on their carbon footprint. We examine the relevance of conventional life cycle analysis (LCA) and environmentally extended input-output analysis (EIO) as methodological tools to identify emission intensities of products and services on which the tax is based. The short-term price effects of the tax and the policy implications of considering non-GHG are also analyzed. The results from the specific case study on pulp production show that the environmental tax rate based on the LCA approach (1,8%) is higher than both EIO approaches (0,8% for product and 1,4% for industry approach), but they are comparable. Even though LCA is more product specific and provides detailed analysis, EIO would be the more relevant approach to apply economy wide environmental tax. When the environmental tax considers non-GHG emissions instead of only CO2, sectors such as agriculture, mining of coal and extraction of peat, and food exhibit higher environmental tax and price effects. Therefore, it is worthwhile for policy makers to pay attention on the implication of considering only CO2 tax or GHG emissions tax in order for such a policy measure to be effective and meaningful. Keywords: Environmental tax; Life cycle analysis; Environmental input-output analysis.

Carbon and nitrogen partitioning during post-anthesis is conditioned by N fertilization and sink strength in three cereals

Further knowledge of the processes conditioning nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is of great relevance to crop productivity. The aim of this paper was characterise C and N partitioning during grain filling and their implications for NUE. Cereals such as bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv Califa sur), triticale (× Triticosecale Wittmack cv. Imperioso) and tritordeum (× Tritordeum Asch. & Graebn line HT 621) were grown under low (LN, 5 mm NH4NO3) and high (HN, 15 mm NH4NO3) N conditions. We conducted simultaneous double labelling (12CO2 and 15NH415NO3) in order to characterise C and N partitioning during grain filling. Although triticale plants showed the largest total and ear dry matter values in HN conditions, the large investment in shoot and root biomass negatively affected ear NUE. Tritordeum was the only genotype that increased NUE in both N treatments (NUEtotal), whereas in wheat, no significant effect was detected. N labelling revealed that N fertilisation during post-anthesis was more relevant for wheat and tritordeum grain filling than for triticale. The study also revealed that the investments of C and N in flag leaves and shoots, together with the"waste" of photoassimilates in respiration, conditioned the NUE of plants, and especially under LN. These results suggest that C and N use by these plants needs to be improved in order to increase ear C and N sinks, especially under LN. It is also remarkable that even though tritordeum shows the largest increase in NUE, the low yield of this cereal limits its agronomic value.

Seasonal dynamics and net production of disolved organic carbon in an oligotrophic coastal environment

To understand dissolved organic carbon (DOC) seasonal dynamics in a coastal oligotrophic site in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, we monitored DOC concentrations monthly over 3 yr, together with the meteorological data and the food-web-related biological processes involved in DOC dynamics. Additional DOC samples were taken in several inshore−offshore transects along the Catalan coast. We found DOC concentrations of ~60 µmol C l−1 in winter, with increasing values through the summer and autumn and reaching 100 to 120 µmol C l−1 in November. There was high inter-annual variability in this summer DOC accumulation, with values of 36, 69 and 13 µmol C l−1 for 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively. The analysis of the microbial food-web processes involved in the DOC balance did not reveal the causes of this accumulation, since the only occasion on which we observed net DOC production (0.3 ± 1 µmol C l−1 d−1 on average) was in 2007, and the negative DOC balance of 2006 and 2008 did not prevent DOC accumulating. The DOC accumulation episodes coincided with low rates of water renewal (average 0.037 ± 0.021 d−1 from May to October) compared with those of winter to early spring (average 0.11 ± 0.048 d−1 from November to April). Indeed, the amount of DOC accumulated each year was inversely correlated with the average summer rainfall. We hypothesize that decreased DOC turn-over due to photochemical or biological processes mostly active during the summer and low water renewal rate combine to determine seasonal DOC accumulation and influence its inter-annual variability.

Genetic variation for carbon isotope composition in Juglans regia L.: relationships with growth, phenology and climate of origin

Among the traits of breeding interest for the common walnut tree Juglans regia L., characteristics such as timing of budbreak and leaf fall, water-use efficiency and growth performance are regarded as being of utmost relevance in Mediterranean conditions. The authors evaluated intraspecific variation in $\delta$13C (carbon isotope composition, surrogate of intrinsic water-use efficiency, WUE$_{\rm i}$) for 22 J. regia families grown in a progeny test under supplementary irrigation, and investigated whether such variation correlated with climatic indicators of native habitats. The genetic relationships between $\delta$13C, growth and phenology were also assessed during two consecutive years. Overall, the most water-use-efficient families (i.e. with higher $\delta$13C), which originated mainly from drought-prone provenance regions which have a high vapour pressure deficit and low rainfall, exhibited less height growth and smaller DBH. Using a stepwise regression procedure, $\delta$13C was included as the main explanatory variable of genotypic variation in growth traits, together with growing season duration (for DBH in both years) and flushing (for height in 2007). It was concluded that WUE$_{\rm i}$ is largely unconnected to phenology effects in the explanation of growth performance for J. regia, therefore suggesting the opportunity of simultaneously selecting for low WUE$_{\rm i}$ and extended growing period to maximise productivity in non-water-limited environments.

Reexposure and advection of C-14-depleted organic carbon from old deposits at the upper continental slope

Outcrops of old strata at the shelf edge resulting from erosive gravity-driven flows have been globally described on continental margins. The reexposure of old strata allows for the reintroduction of aged organic carbon (OC), sequestered in marine sediments for thousands of years, into the modern carbon cycle. This pool of reworked material represents an additional source of C-14-depleted organic carbon supplied to the ocean, in parallel with the weathering of fossil organic carbon delivered by rivers from land. To understand the dynamics and implications of this reexposure at the shelf edge, a biogeochemical study was carried out in the Gulf of Lions (Mediterranean Sea) where erosive processes, driven by shelf dense water cascading, are currently shaping the seafloor at the canyon heads. Mooring lines equipped with sediment traps and current meters were deployed during the cascading season in the southwestern canyon heads, whereas sediment cores were collected along the sediment dispersal system from the prodelta regions down to the canyon heads. Evidence from grain-size, X-radiographs and Pb-210 activity indicate the presence in the upper slope of a shelly-coarse surface stratum overlying a consolidated deposit. This erosive discontinuity was interpreted as being a result of dense water cascading that is able to generate sufficient shear stress at the canyon heads to mobilize the coarse surface layer, eroding the basal strata. As a result, a pool of aged organic carbon (Delta C-14 = -944.5 +/- 24.7%; mean age 23,650 +/- 3,321 ybp) outcrops at the modern seafloor and is reexposed to the contemporary carbon cycle. This basal deposit was found to have relatively high terrigenous organic carbon (lignin = 1.48 +/- 0.14 mg/100 mg OC), suggesting that this material was deposited during the last low sea-level stand. A few sediment trap samples showed anomalously depleted radiocarbon concentrations (Delta C-14 = -704.4 +/- 62.5%) relative to inner shelf (Delta C-14 = -293.4 +/- 134.0%), mid-shelf (Delta C-14 = -366.6 +/- 51.1%), and outer shelf (Delta C-14 = -384 +/- 47.8%) surface sediments. Therefore, although the major source of particulate material during the cascading season is resuspended shelf deposits, there is evidence that this aged pool of organic carbon can be eroded and laterally advected downslope.

Biogeochemical processes controlling oxygen and carbon isotopes of diatom silica in Late Glacial to Holocene lacustrine rhythmites

Biogeochemical cycles and sedimentary records in lakes are related to climate controls on hydrology and catchment processes. Changes in the isotopic imposition of the diatom frustules (δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom ) in lacustrine sediments can be used to reconstruct palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes. The Lago Chungará (Andean Altiplano, 18°15 ′ S, 69°10 ′ W, 4520 masl) diatomaceous laminated sediments are made up of white and green multiannual rhythmites. White laminae were formed during short-term diatom super-blooms, and are composed almost exclusively of large-sized Cyclostephanos andinus.These diatoms bloom during mixing events when recycled nutrients from the bottom waters are brought to the surface and/or when nutrients are introduced from the catchment during periods of strong runoff. Conversely, the green laminae are thought to have been deposited over several years and are composed of a mixture of diatoms (mainly smaller valves of C. andinus and Discostella stelligera ) and organic matter. These green laminae reflect the lake's hydrological recovery from a status favouring the diatom super-blooms (white laminae) towards baseline conditions. δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom from 11,990 to 11,530 cal years BP allow us to reconstruct shifts in the precipitation/evaporation ratio and changes in the lake water dissolved carbon concentration, respectively. δ 18 O diatom values indicate that white laminae formation occurred mainly during low lake level stages, whereas green laminae formation generally occurred during high lake level stages. The isotope and chronostratigraphical data together suggest that white laminae deposition is caused by extraordinary environmental events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and changes in solar activity are the most likely climate forcing mechanisms that could trigger such events, favouring hydrological changes at interannual-to-decadal scale. This study demonstrates the potential for laminated lake sediments to document extreme pluriannual events.

The materiality of the immaterial. Services sectors and CO2 emissions in Uruguay

This paper analyzes the carbon dioxide emissions of the services sectors subsystem of Uruguay in 2004. Services, with the exception of transport, are often considered intangible because of their low level of direct emissions. However, the provision of services requires inputs produced by other sectors, including several highly materialintensive sectors. Through input–output analysis we investigate the relationship between the services subsystem and the rest of the economy as regards carbon dioxide emissions. This approach allows us to study the importance of the set of services branches as a unit in the economic structure as well as to analyze in detail the relationship between the branches. The results depict that services’ direct emissions are the main component, as a consequence of transport-related sectors. However, the pollution that the services subsystem makes the rest of the economy produce is very significant, and it is almost all explained by non-transport-related sectors. This analysis is useful for determining the sectors in which mitigation policies are more effective, and whether they would be better tackled through technical improvements and better practices or through demand policies.