The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Period-Luminosity-Colour distribution and classification of Galactic oxygen-rich LPVs I. Luminosity calibrations

The absolute K magnitudes and kinematic parameters of about 350 oxygen-rich Long-Period Variable stars are calibrated, by means of an up-to-date maximum-likelihood method, using HIPPARCOS parallaxes and proper motions together with radial velocities and, as additional data, periods and V-K colour indices. Four groups, differing by their kinematics and mean magnitudes, are found. For each of them, we also obtain the distributions of magnitude, period and de-reddened colour of the base population, as well as de-biased period-luminosity-colour relations and their two-dimensional projections. The SRa semiregulars do not seem to constitute a separate class of LPVs. The SRb appear to belong to two populations of different ages. In a PL diagram, they constitute two evolutionary sequences towards the Mira stage. The Miras of the disk appear to pulsate on a lower-order mode. The slopes of their de-biased PL and PC relations are found to be very different from the ones of the Oxygen Miras of the LMC. This suggests that a significant number of so-called Miras of the LMC are misclassified. This also suggests that the Miras of the LMC do not constitute a homogeneous group, but include a significant proportion of metal-deficient stars, suggesting a relatively smooth star formation history. As a consequence, one may not trivially transpose the LMC period-luminosity relation from one galaxy to the other.

Els primers llums del Delta

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. El treball és un estudi de l’evolució, tan tècnica com estètica dels fars paral•lela als avenços tecnològics i prenent com a protagonistes els singulars fars de ferro que es varen construir durant la segona meitat del segle XIX i varen funcionar durant un llarguíssim període en el delta de l’Ebre. L’estructura de ferro, ancorada directament sobre les sorres del delta va donar un caràcter especial a aquestes construccions que, d’altra banda, constituïen una tipologia única a Catalunya i a Espanya. Aquests fars van rebre el nom del lloc on foren ubicats estratègicament. De sud a nord: far de la Banya, far de Buda i far del Fangar. Els van projectar conjuntament, es van encendre per primera vegada el mateix dia, van ser l’habitatge dels seus faroners, van anar evolucionant tècnicament tots tres però el final de cadascun d’ells va ser molt diferent. La història dels fars de ferro ha anat lligada al paisatge i la vida d’aquestes singulars terres del Delta i després de més d’un segle de servei foren substituïts per altres que estèticament i tècnicament res tenen a veure amb els seus antecessors.

El temps del mal: l’experiència i la gestió de la cronicitat en adults

El temps del mal. L’experiència i la gestió de la cronicitat en adults. El principal objectiu d’aquesta recerca és l’estudi de l’experiència i la gestió diària de la cronicitat, entenent-la com a categoria analítica que engloba els processos de malalties i/o malestars crònics, biomèdicament diagnosticats o no, que perduren en el temps. La recerca es centra en adults entre 30 i 50 anys amb problemes crònics de salut que impliquin algun tipus de discapacitat i/o dependència (a nivell moderat), i s’ubica en l’àmbit urbà i en la comunitat autònoma de Catalunya (dins del context de l’estat Espanyol). L’estudi analitzarà la gestió individual i social de la cronicitat a través dels itineraris terapèutics i pràctiques assistencials dels processos de salut/malaltia/atenció prenent l’autoatenció com a principal categoria analítica. Per altra banda, es descriurà el rol dels serveis assistencials de la sanitat pública i dels serveis socials, per veure com es duu a terme la gestió – polítiques públiques - de la cronicitat en un país amb estat del benestar com Espanya. L’experiència de la cronicitat s’explorarà a través de les narratives de la vivència de la malaltia/malestar tan com a representació cultural – que dóna compte de les relacions, interaccions i respostes socials – i des d’una perspectiva fenomenològica que ens permet comprendre la naturalesa del patiment en l’experiència viscuda del cos malalt. Aquesta recerca espera poder fer aportacions pertinents que contribueixin des de l’antropologia però amb la intenció d’obrir un diàleg públic i interdisciplinar – professionals de la salut, experts en polítiques públiques i públic en general - a la resolució de l’actual problema de salut pública d’increment de cronicitat. El model públic d’atenció a la salut espanyol es va dissenyar per resoldre problemes de salut aguts, malgrat la major part dels usuaris actuals presentes problemes de salut crònics. L’actual crisi econòmica que amenaça aquest pilar de l’estat del benestar és, alhora, una oportunitat per replantejar-ho.

Spermiogenesis particularities of a sperm storage species: Helicolenus dactylopterus (Teleostei: Scorpaenidae)

A study of the spermiogenesis and spermatozoa of Helicolenus dactylopterus was conducted. Females of this species have the capacity to store sperm within their ovaries, and male gametes have a considerable cytoplasmic mass surrounding their heads to survive the long period of intraovarian sperm storage. Our observations show that early spermatids are round-shaped cells and have a spherical nucleus with diffuse chromatin. The nuclear volume decreases as a result of progressive chromatin condensation during spermiogenesis, causing the nucleus to take on a U-shape. Flagellar insertion is not central to the nucleus but consistently occurs at an oblique angle towards one side of it. The flagellum is inserted into the nuclear fossa, without subsequent nuclear rotation. In mature spermatozoa, the flagellum is adjacent to the nucleus. A comparison of the spermatozoa in the testicular lobules and those in the intraovarian storage structures suggests that the increase in volume of the cytoplasmic mass may occur in the posterior region of the testis, in the testicular duct. Spermatozoa enter the ovary in groups that reach the ovarian lumen and are surrounded by the ovarian epithelium for storage in sperm storage crypts

Proving the performance of a new revenue management system

Revenue management (RM) is a complicated business process that can best be described ascontrol of sales (using prices, restrictions, or capacity), usually using software as a tool to aiddecisions. RM software can play a mere informative role, supplying analysts with formatted andsummarized data who use it to make control decisions (setting a price or allocating capacity fora price point), or, play a deeper role, automating the decisions process completely, at the otherextreme. The RM models and algorithms in the academic literature by and large concentrateon the latter, completely automated, level of functionality.A firm considering using a new RM model or RM system needs to evaluate its performance.Academic papers justify the performance of their models using simulations, where customerbooking requests are simulated according to some process and model, and the revenue perfor-mance of the algorithm compared to an alternate set of algorithms. Such simulations, whilean accepted part of the academic literature, and indeed providing research insight, often lackcredibility with management. Even methodologically, they are usually awed, as the simula-tions only test \within-model" performance, and say nothing as to the appropriateness of themodel in the first place. Even simulations that test against alternate models or competition arelimited by their inherent necessity on fixing some model as the universe for their testing. Theseproblems are exacerbated with RM models that attempt to model customer purchase behav-ior or competition, as the right models for competitive actions or customer purchases remainsomewhat of a mystery, or at least with no consensus on their validity.How then to validate a model? Putting it another way, we want to show that a particularmodel or algorithm is the cause of a certain improvement to the RM process compared to theexisting process. We take care to emphasize that we want to prove the said model as the causeof performance, and to compare against a (incumbent) process rather than against an alternatemodel.In this paper we describe a \live" testing experiment that we conducted at Iberia Airlineson a set of flights. A set of competing algorithms control a set of flights during adjacentweeks, and their behavior and results are observed over a relatively long period of time (9months). In parallel, a group of control flights were managed using the traditional mix of manualand algorithmic control (incumbent system). Such \sandbox" testing, while common at manylarge internet search and e-commerce companies is relatively rare in the revenue managementarea. Sandbox testing has an undisputable model of customer behavior but the experimentaldesign and analysis of results is less clear. In this paper we describe the philosophy behind theexperiment, the organizational challenges, the design and setup of the experiment, and outlinethe analysis of the results. This paper is a complement to a (more technical) related paper thatdescribes the econometrics and statistical analysis of the results.

Evolución del crecimiento radial en un rodal adulto de Pinus nigra Arn. de la provincia de Lleida

Se ha estudiado un rodal adulto (edad media = 139 años) de Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii var. pyrenaica en el W de la comarca del Solsonès (Lérida). Se han medido y extraído testigos de madera de 97 árboles adultos, a partir de los cuales se han medido e interdatado 13.340 anillos anuales, construyendo una cronología de crecimientos que abarca desde 1818 a 1996. Se han analizado las relaciones entre diversos parámetros dendrométricos medidos y los crecimientos observados, encontrándose en general muy bajas correlaciones. Se han construido tres series medias de crecimiento (cronología media, estandarizada, y en función de la edad) a partir de las cuales se ha analizado la evolución del rodal. Se ha observado un prolongado período de ralentización y estancamiento del crecimiento que se mantiene cerca de ochenta años, seguido de una fuerte corta a la que la masa reacciona con un notable incremento del crecimiento radial en un momento en que la edad media era ya de 101 años.

Singling out individual inventors from patent data

An increasing number of studies in recent years have sought to identify individual inventors from patent data. A variety of heuristics have been proposed for using the names and other information disclosed in patent documents to establish who is who in patents. This paper contributes to this literature by describing a methodology for identifying inventors using patents applied to the European Patent Office, EPO hereafter. As in much of this literature, we basically follow a threestep procedure : 1- the parsing stage, aimed at reducing the noise in the inventor’s name and other fields of the patent; 2- the matching stage, where name matching algorithms are used to group similar names; and 3- the filtering stage, where additional information and various scoring schemes are used to filter out these similarlynamed inventors. The paper presents the results obtained by using the algorithms with the set of European inventors applying to the EPO over a long period of time.

20 Myr of eccentricity paced lacustrine cycles in the Cenozoic Ebro Basin

Long-period orbital forcing is a crucial component of the major global climate shifts during the Cenozoic as revealed in marine pelagic records. A complementary regional perspective of climate change can be assessed from internally drained lake basins, which are directly affected by insolation and precipitation balance. The Ebro Basin in northeastern Iberia embraces a 20 Myr long continuous sedimentary record where recurrent expansions and retractions of the central lacustrine system suggest periodic shifts of water balance due to orbital oscillations. In order to test climatic (orbital) forcing a key-piece of the basin, the Los Monegros lacustrine system, has been analyzed in detail. The cyclostratigraphic analysis points to orbital eccentricity as pacemaker of short to long-term lacustrine sequences, and reveals a correlation of maxima of the 100-kyr, 400-kyr and 2.4-Myr eccentricity cycles with periods of lake expansion. A magnetostratigraphy-based chronostratigraphy of the complete continental record allows further assessing long-period orbital forcing at basin scale, a view that challenges alternate scenarios where the stratigraphic architecture in foreland systems is preferably associated to tectonic processes. We conclude that while the location of lacustrine depocenters reacted to the long-term tectonic-driven accommodation changes, shorter wavelenght oscillations of lake environments, still million-year scale, claims for a dominance of orbital forcing. We suggest a decoupling between (tectonic) supply-driven clastic sequences fed from basin margins and (climatic) base level-driven lacustrine sequences in active settings with medium to large sediment transfer systems.

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.

The long-run and intergenerational education impacts of intergovernmental transfers

This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on long-run and intergenerational education impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to local governments in Brazil. Revenues and expenditures of the communities benefiting from extra transfers temporarily increased by about 20% during the 4 year period from 1982 to the end of 1985. Schooling and literacy gains for directly exposed cohorts established in previous work that used the 1991 census are attenuated but persist in the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Children and adolescents of the next generation --born after the extra funding had disappeared-- show gains of about 0.08 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams at the end of the 2000s. While we find no evidence of persistent improvements in school resources, we document discontinuities in education levels, literacy rates and incomes of test takers' parents that are consistent with intergenerational human capital spillovers.

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.