Stock market integration between new EU member states and the Euro-zone

This paper measures the degree in stock market integration between five Eastern European countries and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated by smooth transition conditional correlation models. We find that the correlation between stock markets has increased from 2001 to 2007. In particular, the Czech and Polish markets show a higher correlation to the Euro-zone. However, this is not a broad-based phenomenon across Eastern Europe. We also find that the increase in correlations is not a reflection of a world-wide phenomenon of financial integration but appears to be specific to the European market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; New EU Members.

The Monetary policy rules in EU-15: before and after the euro

The objective of this paper is to identify empirically the logic behind short-term interest rates setting

More than cheap talk? Euro-Mediterranean cooperation on human rights and democracy

Malgrat els esforços de la UE en la promoció de la democràcia i un compromís comú per la democràcia i els drets humans al EMP, no hi ha signes de convergència cap al model liberal democràtic propugnat per la UE. No obstant això, l'abast i la intensitat de la cooperació multilateral, transnacional i bilateral han augmentat constantment en tota la regió des de mitjans de 1990. La cooperació en el camp de la promoció de la democràcia es caracteritza per la forta dinàmica de normativa sectorial, i la diferenciació geogràfica, però està clarament situada en un marc regional i altament estandarditzat. Si bé la convergència política o la política sembla poc probable en el curt o mitjà termini, democràcia i drets humans estan fermament establerts en una agenda regional comú

Évaluation des Conférences ministérielles euro-méditerranéennes de Valence, Crète, Naples et Dublin

La Conférence inaugurale de Barcelone a marqué, en novembre 1995, le début d'un long processus de rapprochement et de solidarité entre 27 partenaires (35 pays depuis le 1er mai 2004 et 37 à moyen terme). Cette initiative est censée revêtir un caractère permanent et évolutif sous l'angle institutionnel. De par sa dimension stratégique, le Processus de Barcelone, ci-après Processus, constitue l'instrument le plus important et le plus concret pour le dialogue et la coopération entre l'Union européenne (UE), ses Etats membres et les partenaires méditerranéens2. Pour être efficace, et pas uniquement rhétorique ou virtuel, le Partenariat euro-méditerranéen, ci-après Partenariat, doit se bâtir sur des valeurs universelles, capables de garantir un minimum de cohérence et de crédibilité à un projet extrêmement complexe, fragile et, par sa propre nature, constamment menacé de paralysie. En effet, il n'est pas toujours aisé de faire prévaloir des actions à caractère centripète aux tentations et tendances centrifuges qui caractérisent la région. Les changements et les événements exceptionnels survenus récemment, tant dans le domaine international qu'au sein de l'Union, ont rendu nécessaires l'approfondissement et le renforcement institutionnel des relations euro-méditerranéennes. Le Processus est appelé à se consolider d'urgence, pour être compris et accepté par une opinion publique de plus en plus sceptique et déconcertée par l'actualité internationale. La récente création de l'Assemblée parlementaire euro-méditerranéenne (APEM) - qui sera dotée de trois commissions permanentes3 - et la constitution prochaine à Alexandrie de la Fondation Euromed pour le dialogue entre les cultures et les civilisations, représentent des réponses logiques et encourageantes à cet état d'esprit plus ou moins généralisé

The Distant neighbors — EU, Middle East, North Africa and the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership

The Barcelona Euro-Mediterranean Conference (1995) was intended to be a launching pad" for creating a new, innovative relationship between the EU-Fifteen and a selected set of non-member Middle Eastern and North African countries. The Barcelona Process was to become the European Union´s first attempt, of several, to create postmodern inclusive policy spheres as a way to deal with the post-enlargement problems of ´ins´ and outs´ in its immediate periphery. Nevertheless, in spite of geographical proximity, common problems and stated interest in creating amorphous EU borders in different sectors, the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership is today all but abandoned. This paper will examine some of the factors behind the current degeneration of the EU´s post-bipolar foreign policy strategy in the Mediterranean, by exploring the dialectic between the Union´s desire to expand its geopolitical, economic and cultural boundaries and the need to secure its territorial area (from migration, proliferation, social instability etc.). In the final part of the paper some suggestions for how to revive the relationship across the Mare Nostrum will be forwarded.

Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries andanalyze their structure and interdependences. Fluctuations are volatile and not highlycorrelated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous making average outputlosses in the area limited. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial.Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked withthe Euro-Mediterranean partnership process. The concordance of cyclical fluctuationsis poorly related to trade and financial linkages and to their evolution over time.

Designing institutions for financial stability: Regulation and supervision by objective for the Euro area

In this paper, we discuss pros and cons ofdifferent models for financial market regulationand supervision and we present a proposal forthe re-organisation of regulatory and supervisoryagencies in the Euro Area. Our arguments areconsistent with both new theories and effectivebehaviour of financial intermediaries inindustrialized countries. Our proposed architecturefor financial market regulation is based on theassignment of different objectives or "finalities"to different authorities, both at the domesticand the European level. According to thisperspective, the three objectives of supervision- microeconomic stability, investor protectionand proper behaviour, efficiency and competition- should be assigned to three distinct Europeanauthorities, each one at the centre of a Europeansystem of financial regulators and supervisorsspecialized in overseeing the entire financialmarket with respect to a single regulatoryobjective and regardless of the subjective natureof the intermediaries. Each system should bestructured and organized similarly to the EuropeanSystem of Central Banks and work in connectionwith the central bank which would remain theinstitution responsible for price and macroeconomicstability. We suggest a plausible path to buildour 4-peak regulatory architecture in the Euro area.

Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from 5 years of ECB and implications for Turkey

We examine monetary policy in the Euro area from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We discuss what theory tells us the strategy of Central banks should be and contrasts it with the one employed by the ECB. We review accomplishments (and failures) of monetary policy in the Euro area and suggest changes that would increase the correlation between words and actions; streamline the understanding that markets have of the policy process; and anchor expectation formation more strongly. We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the Euro area and in some potential member countries and try to infer the likely effects occurring when Turkey joins the EU first and the Euro area later. Much of the analysis here warns against having too high expectations of the economic gains that membership to the EU and Euro club will produce.

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Separated by a common currency? Evidence from the Euro changeover

We study the price convergence of goods and services in the euro area in 2001-2002. To measure the degree of convergence, we compare the prices of around 220 items in 32 European cities. The width of the border is the price di¤erence attributed to the fact that the two cities are in different countries. We find that the 2001 European borders are negative, which suggests that the markets were very integrated before the euro changeover. Moreover, we do not identify an integration effect attributable to the introduction of the euro. We then explore the determinants of the European borders. We find that different languages, wealth and population differences tend to split the markets. Historical inflation, though, tends to lead to price convergence.

Crisi de l'euro, identitat europea i la sostenibilitat de la UE com a projecte transnacional. Narratives mediàtiques de la crisi de deute europeu (anys 2010-2011) a la premsa de referència de diferents països de la UE.

El present treball, Crisi de l’euro, identitat europea i la sostenibilitat de laUE com a projecte transnacional. Narratives mediàtiques de la crisi dedeute europeu (anys 2010-2011) a la premsa de referència de diferentspaïsos de la UE, és una proposta de recerca doctoral. La recerca que esproposa pretèn reflexionar sobre fins a quin punt es dónen les condicionsper a l’existència d’una esfera pública europea en la premsa de referènciageneralista, a partir de l’estudi de les cobertures informatives sobre la criside deute sobirà a la zona Euro efectuades per diaris del Regne Unit,França, Espanya, Alemanya i Itàlia. Amb aquest objectiu, es dissenya una recerca empírica centrada en determinar el grau de convergència discursiva i la visibilitat i els valors atorgats a institucions europees i estatals, i a col·lectius identitaris mitjançant l’estudi d’agendes mediàtiques, frames, idees polítiques i fonts informatives.

Patterns of convergence and divergence in the euro area

We study the extent of macroeconomic convergence/divergence among euro area countries. Our analysis focuses on four variables (unemployment, inflation, relative prices and the current account), and seeks to uncover the role played by monetary union as a convergence factor by using non-euro developed economies and the pre-EMU period as control samples.

Reprisals remembered: German-Greek conflict and car sales during the Euro crisis

During the Greek debt crisis after 2010, the German government insisted on harshausterity measures. This led to a rapid cooling of relations between the Greekand German governments. We compile a new index of public acrimony betweenGermany and Greece based on newspaper reports and internet search terms. Thisinformation is combined with historical maps on German war crimes during theoccupation between 1941 and 1944. During months of open conflict between Germanand Greek politicians, German car sales fell markedly more than those of cars fromother countries. This was especially true in areas affected by German reprisals duringWorldWar II: areas where German troops committed massacres and destroyed entirevillages curtailed their purchases of German cars to a greater extent during conflictmonths than other parts of Greece. We conclude that cultural aversion was a keydeterminant of purchasing behavior, and that memories of past conflict can affecteconomic choices in a time-varying fashion. These findings are compatible withbehavioral models emphasizing the importance of salience for individual decision-making.

Efectos regionales de la política monetaria : implicaciones para los países de la zona euro

De acuerdo con la teoría de las áreas monetàrias óptimas,los shocks asimétricos tienen un papel fundamental en la determinación de los beneficios y los costes derivados del establecimiento de una área monetaria. En este sentido, diferentes estudios recientes señalan una importante reducción del grado de asimetría de los shocks en términos reales a lo largo de los últimos años entre los países europeos como consecuencia de la mayor coordinación de las políticas económicas y de la aproximación de las estructuras productivas. De todas maneras, una de las cuestiones clave en el nuevo entorno económico, y que no ha sido demasiado considerada a la literatura reciente, es el posible papel desestabilitzador de la política monetaria común como consecuencia de las diferencias en los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en los distintos países y regiones de la Zona Euro. En este trabajo se considera la mencionada cuestión desde un punto de vista teórico y se analiza empíricamente la existencia de diferencias regionales en los efectos de la política monetaria llevada a término en España a lo largo de los últimos años con la finalidad d identificar los principales determinantes de esta asimetría en el ámbito europeo

Efectos regionales de la política monetaria : implicaciones para los países de la zona euro

De acuerdo con la teoría de las áreas monetàrias óptimas,los shocks asimétricos tienen un papel fundamental en la determinación de los beneficios y los costes derivados del establecimiento de una área monetaria. En este sentido, diferentes estudios recientes señalan una importante reducción del grado de asimetría de los shocks en términos reales a lo largo de los últimos años entre los países europeos como consecuencia de la mayor coordinación de las políticas económicas y de la aproximación de las estructuras productivas. De todas maneras, una de las cuestiones clave en el nuevo entorno económico, y que no ha sido demasiado considerada a la literatura reciente, es el posible papel desestabilitzador de la política monetaria común como consecuencia de las diferencias en los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en los distintos países y regiones de la Zona Euro. En este trabajo se considera la mencionada cuestión desde un punto de vista teórico y se analiza empíricamente la existencia de diferencias regionales en los efectos de la política monetaria llevada a término en España a lo largo de los últimos años con la finalidad d identificar los principales determinantes de esta asimetría en el ámbito europeo