Generic super-exponential stability of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems

In this article, we consider solutions starting close to some linearly stable invariant tori in an analytic Hamiltonian system and we prove results of stability for a super-exponentially long interval of time, under generic conditions. The proof combines classical Birkhoff normal forms and a new method to obtain generic Nekhoroshev estimates developed by the author and L. Niederman in another paper. We will mainly focus on the neighbourhood of elliptic fixed points, the other cases being completely similar.

Magnetostratigraphy of the Miocene continental deposits of the Montes de Castejón (central Ebro basin, Spain): geochronological and paleoenvironmental implications

A detailed magnetostratigraphic study has been carried out in the early to middle Miocene distal alluvial and lacustrine sediments of the Montes de Castejón (central Ebro Basin). The study was based on the analysis of 196 magnetostratigraphic sites sampled along a stratigraphic interval of about 240 meters. Local magnetostratigraphy yielded a sequence of 12 magnetozones (6 normal and 6 reverse) which could be correlated with the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale (GPTS) interval C5Cr to C5AD (between 17 and 14.3 Ma.). The sampled sedimentary sequences include the boundary between two tectosedimentary units (TSU, T5 and T6) already defined in the Ebro Basin. The magnetostratigraphy of the Montes de Castejón allows to date the T5/T6 TSU boundary at 16.14 Ma, within chron C5Cn.1n. This magnetostratigraphy also allows us to analyse in detail as well as to discuss the variations in sedimentation rates through space and time between different lacustrine environments: Outer carbonate lacustrine fringes and distal alluvial plains (Montes de Castejón sections) show higher sedimentation rates than offshore lacustrine areas (San Caprasio section, 50 km east of Montes de Castejón).

Tagging reveals limited exchange of immature loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) between regions in the western Mediterranean.

Exchange of immature loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) between the northern and southern regions of the western Mediterranean was investigated using data obtained from several Spanish tagging programmes. Tagged turtles ranged in straight carapace length from 23.0 to 74.0 cm. Thirty-six turtles were recaptured after an average interval of 390.5±462.6 days (SD). As the mean dispersal distance (MDD) of a turtle population that spreads over the western Mediterranean would stabilize after 117 days (CI 95%: 98 to 149), two analyses were conducted that included data from turtles recaptured after 98 and 149 days respectively. In both analyses, turtles were recaptured more often than expected in the same region where they had been tagged. No difference was found in either of the two regions between the average distance between the capture and recapture locations and the expected MDD if the turtles were to remain in the region where they were first captured. Turtles recaptured after 15 and 25 days respectively were excluded from the analysis to ensure data independence. The overall evidence indicates that immature turtles exhibit strong site fidelity to certain areas and that there is a strong barrier to dispersal between the northern and southern parts of the western Mediterranean. Therefore, loggerhead turtles in the western Mediterranean should be split into at least two management units.

Safety of intramuscular influenza vaccine in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy: a single blinded multi-centre randomized controlled clinical trial

Influenza vaccines are recommended for administration by the intramuscular route. However, many physicians use the subcutaneous route for patients receiving an oral anticoagulant because this route is thought to induce fewer hemorrhagic side effects. Our aim is to assess the safety of intramuscular administration of influenza vaccine in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy. Methods: Design: Randomised, controlled, single blinded, multi-centre clinical trial. Setting: 4 primary care practices in Barcelona, Spain. Participants: 229 patients on oral anticoagulation therapy eligible for influenza vaccine during the 20032004 season. Interventions: intramuscular administration of influença vaccine in the experimental group (129 patients) compared to subcutaneous administration in the control group (100 patients). Primary outcome: change in the circumference of the arm at the site of injection at 24 hours. Secondary outcomes: appearance of local reactions and pain at 24 hours and at 10 days; change in INR (International Normalized Ratio) at 24 hours and at 10 days. Analysis was by intention to treat using the 95% confidence intervals of the proportions or mean differences. Results: Baseline variables in the two groups were similar. No major side effects or major haemorrhage during the follow-up period were reported. No significant differences were observed in the primary outcome between the two groups. The appearance of local adverse reactions was more frequent in the subcutaneous administration group (37,4% vs. 17,4%, 95% confidence interval of the difference 8,2% to 31,8%). Conclusion: This study shows that the intramuscular administration route of influenza vaccine in patients on anticoagulant therapy does not have more side effects than the subcutaneous administration route

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers) used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI) estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI) procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

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We study the relation between the number of firms and market power in experimental oligopolies. Price competition under decreasing returns involves a wide interval of pure strategy equilibrium prices. We present results of an experiment in which two, three and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. Less collusion with more firms leads to lower average prices. With more than two firms, the predominant market price is 24. A simple imitation model captures this phenomenon. For the long run, the model predicts that prices converge to the Walrasian outcome, but for the intermediate term the modal price is 24

The Division problem with voluntary participation

The division problem consists of allocating a given amount of an homogeneous and perfectly divisible good among a group of agents with single-peaked preferences on the set of their potential shares. A rule proposes a vector of shares for each division problem. The literature has implicitly assumed that agents will find acceptable any share they are assigned to. In this paper we consider the division problem when agents' participation is voluntary. Each agent has an idiosyncratic interval of acceptable shares where his preferences are single-peaked. A rule has to propose to each agent either to not participate or an acceptable share because otherwise he would opt out and this would require to reassign some of the remaining agents' shares. We study a subclass of efficient and consistent rules and characterize extensions of the uniform rule that deal explicitly with agents' voluntary participation.

Serie estratigráfica de Liásico de la provincia de Girona

From several small stratigraphic sections, we have reconstituted the Liassic interval of the Girona Province (NE Spain). We have been able to identify paleontologically the Carixian (Jamesoni, Ibex, and perhaps, Davoei zones), the Lower Domerian (Stockesi zone), and the Middle Toarcian (possibily Variabilis zone, as well as Thouarsense and Insigne zones). The Lower Toarcian (Serpentinus zone) is represented by fossil remains no ‘in situ’. The lowest Toarcián (Tenuicos-tatum zone) as well as the Middle and Upper Domerian (Margaritatus and Spinatum zones respectively, are probably represented by stratigraphic gaps

Anàlisi i quantificació de les accions i el temps de joc en l'hoquei sobre patins en equips de l'OK Lliga

Quantificar les variables temporal, les accions tècniques i els desplaçaments dels jugador al llarg de la competició proporciona una informació excel·lent per deduir les càrregues físiques i fisiològiques a les que estan sotmesos. Per aquest estudi es van visualitzar 4 partits de la Copa del Rei 2012. Es va enregistrà sistemàticament les dades en fulls de registre. Les principals dades analitzades van ser: temps total, temps real, temps de pausa, temps d’acció i relació entre el temps d’acció i el temps de pausa (densitat de treball). També es va analitzar: les incidències reglamentaries, les accions tècniques del jugador i els desplaçaments del jugador. El 45% de les accions es van produir entre 0 i 30s, i el promig d’interval de participació va ser 19:29s ±2:09. Més del 50% de les pauses es van produir entre 11s i 30s, i el promig d’interval de pausa va ser de 24:57s. Aquest va determinar que la densitat de treball era 1:1.3. Aproximadament el 70% de les incidències reglamentàries van ser faltes d’equip I tècniques. Van haver-hi 56 conduccions, 10 driblins, 12 remats, (3 xuts, 2 punxades/escopides, 5 remats de primeres i 2 arrossegades) i 80 passades. Finalment, en un partit el 42,23% dels desplaçaments van ser a baixa intensitat, el 27,02% van ser a intensitat mitjana i el 30,75% van ser a alta intensitat. A més a més, el 81,90% dels desplaçaments a alta intensitat van durar de 0s a 5s, el 54,56% a intensitat mitjana van durar de 6 a 10 s. I el 49,32% a intensitat baixa també van durar 6s a 10s. L’hoquei sobre patins és un esport en el que hi predominen els esforços intermitents a gran intensitat i de curta durada amb una important sol·licitació de la via anaeròbica alàctica. Analitzar la dimensió temporal, les accions tècniques i els desplaçaments dels jugador durant la competició permet estimar les exigències físiques i requeriments energètics, i aquest faciliten l’elaboració d’entrenaments més específics.

Nuevas técnicas de estadística espacial para la detección de clusters residenciales de población inmigrante

La estadística aplicada a la geografía ha experimentado un avance espectacular en las últimas dos décadas introduciéndose el espacio como eje fundamental del análisis. Este avance se ha visto acompañado por un rápido desarrollo de aplicaciones estadísticas integradas en los sistemas de información geográfica, constituyéndose de esta forma en un conjunto de herramientas imprescindibles en la planificación territorial. Por otro lado, en España, el incremento de población inmigrada en un corto intervalo de tiempo ha hecho necesario analizar su distribución espacial en las áreas urbanas. Los índices de autocorrelación espacial, tanto global como local, y su representación cartográfica constituyen una técnica adecuada para la detección de clusters y patrones espaciales y abre la posibilidad de plantear diferentes modelos econométricos. A partir del caso de la ciudad de Barcelona se aplican las técnicas descritas y se observan los diferentes comportamientos según el grupo de población estudiado.

Predicción de la resistencia al flujo en ríos de montaña

Se han calibrado, validado y comparado tres modelos de resistencia al flujo de contorno granular: un modelo potencial y otros dos modelos desarrollados para condiciones de alta rugosidad relativa (uno basado en una modificación de la ley logarítmica de Prandtl-von Karman y otro fundamentado en un perfil de velocidad configurado en dos zonas: una uniforme en las proximidades de los elementos de rugosidad y otra superior que sigue una distribución logarítmica). Se ha empleado para ello un numeroso conjunto de 1.533 datos tomados en ríos y en canales de laboratorio, representativo de un amplio intervalo hidráulico y geomorfológico en el ámbito de ríos de grava y de montaña. Han resultado preferibles las ecuaciones ajustadas con los percentiles granulométricos mayores (d90 o d84) que las ajustadas con el diámetro mediano (d50), debido a la mayor capacidad explicativa alcanzada dado un modelo, la menor diferencia en la bondad de ajuste entre los diferentes modelos y la menor influencia del origen de los datos (río o canal de laboratorio). Las ecuaciones ajustadas de acuerdo con los modelos en donde se contemplan condiciones de alta rugosidad relativa presentan predicciones similares, exceptuando el intervalo macrorrugoso (y/d90 < 1), en el que es preferible la correspondiente al modelo fundamentado en el perfil de velocidad configurado en dos zonas. Se recomienda restringir la aplicación de la ecuación ajustada con arreglo a la ley potencial al intervalo de y/d90 comprendido entre uno y veinte, puesto que fuera de dicho intervalo tiende a infraestimar notablemente la resistencia al flujo.