Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador)

This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1) community emergency plans, (2) regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces). Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method underestimated the results owing to short and discontinuous periods of rainfall data with the result that probabilistic equations cannot be applied. The Manning method yields a wide range of results because of its dependence on the roughness coefficient. The paleohydraulic method yielded higher values than the rational and Manning methods. However, it should be pointed out that it is possible that bigger boulders could have been moved had they existed. These discharge values are lower than those obtained by the geomorphological estimates, i.e. much closer to reality. The flood hazard maps were derived from the comprehensive geomorphological map. Three categories of hazard were established (very high, high and moderate) using flood energy, water height and velocity flow deduced from geomorphological and eyewitness reports.

GIS-based debris flow source and runout susceptibility assessment from DEM data - a case study in NW Nicaragua

In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered numerous landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. The potential application of relatively simple and affordable spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping in developing countries was studied. Our attention was focused on a region in NW Nicaragua, one of the most severely hit places during the Mitch event. A landslide map was obtained at 1:10 000 scale in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment from the interpretation of aerial photographs and detailed field work. In this map the terrain failure zones were distinguished from the areas within the reach of the mobilized materials. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 20 m×20 m of pixel size was also employed in the study area. A comparative analysis of the terrain failures caused by Hurricane Mitch and a selection of 4 terrain factors extracted from the DEM which, contributed to the terrain instability, was carried out. Land propensity to failure was determined with the aid of a bivariate analysis and GIS tools in a terrain failure susceptibility map. In order to estimate the areas that could be affected by the path or deposition of the mobilized materials, we considered the fact that under intense rainfall events debris flows tend to travel long distances following the maximum slope and merging with the drainage network. Using the TauDEM extension for ArcGIS software we generated automatically flow lines following the maximum slope in the DEM starting from the areas prone to failure in the terrain failure susceptibility map. The areas crossed by the flow lines from each terrain failure susceptibility class correspond to the runout susceptibility classes represented in a runout susceptibility map. The study of terrain failure and runout susceptibility enabled us to obtain a spatial prediction for landslides, which could contribute to landslide risk mitigation.

Indicators and evaluation tools for the assessment of urban sustainability

This paper attempts to provide an explanation of why reductionistic approaches are not adequate to tackle the urban sustainability issue in a consistent way. Concepts such as urban environmental carrying capacity and ecological footprint are discussed. Multicriteria evaluation is proposed as a general multidimensional framework for the assessment of urban sustainability. This paper deals with the following main topics: 1) definition of the concept of urban sustainability 2) discussion of relevant sustainability indicators 3) multicriteria evaluation as a framework for the assessment of urban sustainability 4) an illustrative example.

The effect of structural fund spending on the spanish regions: an assessment of the 1994-99 objective 1 CSF

This paper analyzes the growth and employment effects of the 1994-99 Community Support Framework (CSF) for the Objective 1 Spanish regions using a simple supply-side model estimated with a panel of regional data. The results suggest that the impact of the Structural Funds in Spain has been quite sizable, adding around a percentage point to annual output growth in the average Objective 1 region and 0.4 points to employment growth. Over the period 1994-2000, the Framework has resulted in the creation of over 300,000 new jobs and has eliminated 20% of the initial gap in income per capita between the assisted regions and the rest of the country.

Socio-economic impacts and assessment biological invasions

Biological invasions have been object of ecological research for years. As one objective, natural scientists investigate the effects of invasive species on ecosystems and their functioning (Levine et al. 2003). However, impacts on ecosystems are also of relevance for society. Changes in ecosystems affect humans in so far as ecosystems provide goods and services, such as fresh water, food and fibbers or recreation, which might be altered due to invasive species. Therefore impacts of biological invasions should be an object of socio-economic interest, which is also demanded by the Convention on Biological Diversity

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

The Ideas Debate in International and European Studies: Towards a Cartography and Critical Assessment

The appeal to ideas as causal variables and/or constitutive features of political processes increasingly characterises political analysis. Yet, perhaps because of the pace of this ideational intrusion, too often ideas have simply been grafted onto pre-existing explanatory theories at precisely the point at which they seem to get into difficulties, with little or no consideration either of the status of such ideational variables or of the character or consistency of the resulting theoretical hybrid. This is particularly problematic for ideas are far from innocent variables – and can rarely, if ever, be incorporated seamlessly within existing explanatory and/or constitutive theories without ontological and epistemological consequence. We contend that this tendency along with the limitations of the prevailing Humean conception of causality, and associated epistemological polemic between causal and constitutive logics, continue to plague almost all of the literature that strives to accord an explanatory role to ideas. In trying to move beyond the current vogue for epistemological polemic, we argue that the incommensurability thesis between causal and constitutive logics is only credible in the context of a narrow, Humean, conception of causation. If we reject this in favour of a more inclusive (and ontologically realist) understanding then it is perfectly possible to chart the causal significance of constitutive processes and reconstrue the explanatory role of ideas as causally constitutive.

Assessment of current anglo-saxon proposals about criminal justice and the justification of legal punishment: Moore, Duff and Finnis on retribution, and the challenging compatibility with the up-and-coming Restorative Justice

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Business-science research collaboration under moral hazard

I analyze, in the context of business and science research collaboration, how the characteristics of partnership agreements are the result of an optimal contract between partners. The final outcome depends on the structure governing the partnership, and on the informational problems towards the efforts involved. The positive effect that the effort of each party has on the success of the other party, makes collaboration a preferred solution. Divergence in research goals may, however, create conflicts between partners. This paper shows how two different structures of partnership governance (a centralized, and a decentralized ones) may optimally use the type of project to motivate the supply of non-contractible efforts. Decentralized structure, however, always choose a project closer to its own preferences. Incentives may also come from monetary transfers, either from partners sharing each other benefits, or from public funds. I derive conditions under which public interventio

Empirical studies in industrial location: an assessment of their methods and results

This paper surveys recent evidence on the determinants of (national and/or foreign) industrial location. We find that the basic analytical framework has remained essentially unaltered since the early contributions of the early 1980's while, in contrast, there have been significant advances in the quality of the data and, to a lesser extent, the econometric modelling. We also identify certain determinants (neoclassical and institutional factors) that tend to provide largely consistent results across the reviewed studies. In light of this evidence, we finally suggest future lines of research.

Fear assessment in pigs exposed to a novel object test

The experiment aimed to study approach and locomotive behaviour as indicators of fear in a novel object test carried out in pigs. Thirty post-weaning (30 kg) and 30 finishing (90 kg) pigs were exposed to visual, auditory and olfactory novel stimuli during 2 different experiments. The facilities consisted of a test pen in which a trough was located. The trough contained chopped apples. Once the animals were trained to enter the test pen individually they were subjected to 3 different fear stimuli. These stimuli were applied in the test pen and next to the trough. The variables studied were feeding behaviour, approach behaviour (the distance and position of the animal with respect to the trough) and locomotive behaviour (general activity, reluctance to move, turning back and retreat attempts). Two groups were studied: saline and midazolam treated group. Twenty minutes before the start of the sessions, 15 post-weaning and finishing pigs received an intramuscular injection of 0.20 and 0.15 mg/kg, respectively, midazolam (Dormicum1). The saline pigs (15 animals per group) were injected with saline. The administration of midazolam increased the feeding behaviour and approaching behaviour, and reduced the locomotive behaviour. In front of the visual and olfactory stimuli post-weaning pigs showed a higher general activity than finishing pigs, but the contrary was found when the auditory stimulus was applied. The olfactory stimulus was more related to the turning back behaviour, whereas the visual stimulus was more related to retreat attempts. Although it could be concluded that reluctant to move was the most common response to the different fear stimuli applied in our study regardless of the age of animals, the combination of reluctant to move and turning back would be a good criterion to assess fear in domestic pigs. The use of midazolam as anxiolytic for studies of fear in commercial conditions in pigs is recommended.