19 resultados para future energy scenario

em Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya (CSUC), Spain


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The link between energy consumption and economic growth has been widely studied in the economic literature. Understanding this relationship is important from both an environmental and a socio-economic point of view, as energy consumption is crucial to economic activity and human environmental impact. This relevance is even higher for developing countries, since energy consumption per unit of output varies through the phases of development, increasing from an agricultural stage to an industrial one and then decreasing for certain service based economies. In the Argentinean case, the relevance of energy consumption to economic development seems to be particularly important. While energy intensity seems to exhibit a U-Shaped curve from 1990 to 2003 decreasing slightly after that year, total energy consumption increases along the period of analysis. Why does this happen? How can we relate this result with the sustainability debate? All these questions are very important due to Argentinean hydrocarbons dependence and due to the recent reduction in oil and natural gas reserves, which can lead to a lack of security of supply. In this paper we study Argentinean energy consumption pattern for the period 1990-2007, to discuss current and future energy and economic sustainability. To this purpose, we developed a conventional analysis, studying energy intensity, and a non conventional analysis, using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) accounting methodology. Both methodologies show that the development process followed by Argentina has not been good enough to assure sustainability in the long term. Instead of improving energy use, energy intensity has increased. The current composition of its energy mix, and the recent economic crisis in Argentina, as well as its development path, are some of the possible explanations.

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L’estudi analitza detalladament les energies que s’utilitzen actualment a la població d’Alinyà (Lleida, Catalunya, Espanya). Les energies més utilitzades amb fins calorífics provenen d’energies fòssils (95,3%). Aquest tipus d’energia, des de un punt de vista econòmic, és inviable donat l’augment continuat dels preus d’aquest tipus de combustibles. A més a més el petroli ha arribat al peak oil. Tenint en compte la delicada situació que viuen actualment els combustibles fòssils, en particular el petroli, fa pensar que el futur està encaminat a produir energia a partir d’altres fonts. Una bona opció és començar a utilitzar biomassa com a font energètica. La zona d’estudi presenta un stock de biomassa 8,4 vegades superior a la que es necessitaria a Alinyà per produir calor i ACS a totes les llars. Per això, en aquest estudi, s’estimen possibles escenaris on es podria aplicar la biomassa que es produeix a la Vall d’Alinyà. S’estima que les calderes individuals serien l’escenari més viable, ja que tècnicament són eficients i s’adeqüen a les característiques de les llars d’aquesta població. Posteriorment, es realitza un estudi de les emissions de CO2 i s’observa que, si s’utilitzés biomassa com a font energètica a Alinyà ,es reduirien 11,3 vegades (91,11%) les emissions de CO2.

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Exploramos, en este artículo, el desarrollo y los resultados iniciales de una metodología innovadora que, usando la metáfora y el sentido del humor, crea un espacio narrativo en un contexto de formación universitaria en competencia social que favorece el proceso de aprendizaje. La experiencia consiste en vincular un escenario metafórico al escenario académico y al futuro escenario profesional. En el artículo se describen los ingredientes de la metáfora utilizada (la fiesta de cumpleaños) y sus vínculos con las competencias trabajadas en la asignatura de Habilidades sociales en la Facultad de Educación Social y Trabajo Social Pere Tarrés (URL). La valoración del profesorado y de los estudiantes la avala como una práctica educativa de éxito cuyos ingredientes pueden ser generalizados a otros contextos formativos.

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En aquest article es pretén explicar breument la viabilitat de la futura gestió i utilització de la biomassa forestal de Bellver de Cerdanya mitjançant un district heating al futur barri del Pla de Tomet. Les particularitats per les quals aquest poble és ideal per a aquest projecte són que l'ajuntament és propietari de gairebé un 90% dels boscos situats en aquest municipi; i que alhora ja ha realitzat diverses instal·lacions que utilitzen la biomassa forestal per a calefacció i ACS. La situació econòmica de la comarca és bastant complicada, ja que s'ha basat en el sector turístic i la construcció, però ambdós no passen pel millor moment. El projecte serviria per donar un valor a la biomassa forestal que fins ara no s'ha donat, i alhora s'intenta buscar nous inputs econòmics per a la Cerdanya. En aquest treball també s'analitza quins haurien de ser els futurs tractaments que s'haurien d'aplicar a la forest, tenint en compte les activitats que es realitzen actualment, i evitant en tot moment possibles efectes negatius, com podria ser la sobreexplotació. També es dedica una part del projecte a explicar els sistemes per obtenir i gestionar de forma correcta la biomassa. A continuació es tracta la part més tècnica, realitzant una estimació del possible futur consum energètic del barri del Pla de Tomet, encara no construït; i decidint quins sistema de calderes seria el més adequat, el tipus d’emmagatzematge més apropiat i els passos a seguir per millorar el rendiment del procés de la gestió i extracció de la biomassa. Seguint tots aquests passos s'arriba a la conclusió que aprofitar la biomassa forestal és millor solució que utilitzar combustibles fòssils. A part dels obvis beneficis medi ambientals, també és millor a nivell econòmic, tant pels futurs veïns com per l'ajuntament.

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Background:Average energies of nuclear collective modes may be efficiently and accurately computed using a nonrelativistic constrained approach without reliance on a random phase approximation (RPA). Purpose: To extend the constrained approach to the relativistic domain and to establish its impact on the calibration of energy density functionals. Methods: Relativistic RPA calculations of the giant monopole resonance (GMR) are compared against the predictions of the corresponding constrained approach using two accurately calibrated energy density functionals. Results: We find excellent agreement at the 2% level or better between the predictions of the relativistic RPA and the corresponding constrained approach for magic (or semimagic) nuclei ranging from 16 O to 208 Pb. Conclusions: An efficient and accurate method is proposed for incorporating nuclear collective excitations into the calibration of future energy density functionals.

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This paper applies the so-called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) to the economy of the Spanish region of Catalonia. By applying Georgescu-Roegen's fund-flow model, it arrives at the conclusion that within a context of the end of cheap oil, the current development model based on the growth of low productivity sectors such as services and construction must change. The change is needed not only because of the increasing scarcity of affordable energy carriers, or because of the increasing environmental impact that the present development represents, but also because of an ageing population that demands labour productivity gains. This will imply industry requiring more energy consumption per worker in order to increase its productivity, and therefore its competitiveness. Thus, we conclude that energy intensity, and exosomatic energy metabolism of Catalonia will increase dramatically in the near future unless major conservation efforts are implemented in both the household and transport sectors.

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The methodology of Multi-Scale Integrated The methodology of Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal Metabolism (MSIASM) is applied to analyze the Chinese economy. This paper presents four tasks: (i) identifying a set of benchmarks that makes it possible to compare various characteristics of the Chinese economy with those of other country groups and the world (level) average; (ii) explaining the differences over the selected set of benchmarks, by looking at the characteristics of the various sub-sectors of the Chinese economy; (iii) understanding existing trends and future feasible future development paths for China by studying the existence of reciprocal constraints between the whole economy and its sub-sectors; and (iv) examining plausible future scenarios of development.

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The 1st chapter of this work presents the different experiments and collaborations in which I am involved during my PhD studies of Physics. Following those descriptions, the 2nd chapter is dedicated to how the radiation affects the silicon sensors, as well as some experimental measurements carried out at CERN (Geneve, Schwitzerland) and IFIC (Valencia, Spain) laboratories. Besides the previous investigation results, this chapter includes the most recent scientific papers appeared in the latest RD50 (Research & Development #50) Status Report, published in January 2007, as well as some others published this year. The 3rd and 4th are dedicated to the simulation of the electrical behavior of solid state detectors. In chapter 3 are reported the results obtained for the illumination of edgeless detectors irradiated at different fluences, in the framework of the TOSTER Collaboration. The 4th chapter reports about simulation design, simulation and fabrication of a novel 3D detector developed at CNM for ions detection in the future ITER fusion reactor. This chapter will be extended with irradiation simulations and experimental measurements in my PhD Thesis.

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The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia

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The possible associations between the microquasars LS 5039 and LS I +61 303 and the EGRET sources 3EG J1824-1514 and 3EG J0241+6103 suggest that microquasars could also be sources of high-energy gamma-rays. In this work, we present a detailed numerical inverse Compton (IC) model, based on a microquasar scenario, that reproduces the high-energy gamma-ray spectra and variability observed by EGRET for the mentioned sources. Our model considers a population of relativistic electrons entrained in a cylindrical inhomogeneous jet that interact through IC scattering with both the radiation and the magnetic fields.

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[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

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[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

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Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.

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Networks are evolving toward a ubiquitous model in which heterogeneousdevices are interconnected. Cryptographic algorithms are required for developing securitysolutions that protect network activity. However, the computational and energy limitationsof network devices jeopardize the actual implementation of such mechanisms. In thispaper, we perform a wide analysis on the expenses of launching symmetric and asymmetriccryptographic algorithms, hash chain functions, elliptic curves cryptography and pairingbased cryptography on personal agendas, and compare them with the costs of basic operatingsystem functions. Results show that although cryptographic power costs are high and suchoperations shall be restricted in time, they are not the main limiting factor of the autonomyof a device.

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A common belief is that further quantum corrections near the singularity of a large black hole should not substantially modify the semiclassical picture of black hole evaporation; in particular, the outgoing spectrum of radiation should be very close to the thermal spectrum predicted by Hawking. In this paper we explore a possible counterexample: in the context of dilaton gravity, we find that nonperturbative quantum corrections which are important in strong-coupling regions may completely alter the semiclassical picture, to the extent that the presumptive spacelike boundary becomes timelike, changing in this way the causal structure of the semiclassical geometry. As a result, only a small fraction of the total energy is radiated outside the fake event horizon; most of the energy comes in fact at later retarded times and there is no problem of information loss. This may constitute a general characteristic of quantum black holes, that is, quantum gravity might be such as to prevent the formation of global event horizons.