Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets upa model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market togetherwith standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of theeconomy more efficiently, while taking into account that its own actions influencewhat it observes. The timeliness of bond market data allows for quicker responsesof monetary policy to disturbances compared to the case when the central bankhas to rely solely on collected aggregate data. The information content of theterm structure creates a link between the bond market and the macroeconomythat is novel to the literature. To quantify the importance of the bond market asa source of information, the model is estimated on data for the United Statesand Australia using Bayesian methods. The empirical exercise suggests that thereis some information in the US term structure that helps the Federal Reserve toidentify shocks to the economy on a timely basis. Australian bond prices seemto be less informative than their US counterparts, perhaps because Australia is arelatively small and open economy.

Uranium reserve, nuclear fuel cycle delusion, CO2 emission from the sea, and electricity supply: reflections after the fuel meltdown of Fukushima nuclear power units

The Great Tohoku-Kanto earthquake and resulting tsunami has brought considerable attention to the issue of the construction of new power plants. We argue in this paper, nuclear power is not a sustainable solution to energy problems. First, we explore the stock of uranium-235 and the different schemes developed by the nuclear power industry to exploit this resource. Second, we show that these methods, fast breeder and MOX fuel reactors, are not feasible. Third, we show that the argument that nuclear energy can be used to reduce CO2 emissions is false: the emissions from the increased water evaporation from nuclear power generation must be accounted for. In the case of Japan, water from nuclear power plants is drained into the surrounding sea, raising the water temperature which has an adverse affect on the immediate ecosystem, as well as increasing CO2 emissions from increased water evaporation from the sea. Next, a short exercise is used to show that nuclear power is not even needed to meet consumer demand in Japan. Such an exercise should be performed for any country considering the construction of additional nuclear power plants. Lastly, the paper is concluded with a discussion of the implications of our findings.

When federalism is not enough? Paths to cooperation in Federal democracies

This paper explores an overlooked issue in the literature on federations and federalism: the relationship between federalism and democracy. Starting from the assumption that federalism per se is not enough to guarantee cooperative intergovernmental dynamics between different levels of governments, this article analyzes how democracy reinforces cooperative intergovernmental relations under a federal design. Drawing from empirical evidence of federations in the making – Brazil, India, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa and Spain – this article shows that in countries where the federal design was built under democratization, namely Brazil, Spain and South Africa, intergovernmental dynamics evolved under an increasingly cooperative mode of interaction.

Educational policy in Spain - a federal illusion?

Education and health policy are two of the public policies, which in Spain have been assigned to the Autonomous Communities (AC). This transfer of powers could be considered a proof for the strong “self-rule” of the AC, which in turn shows that Spain could be classified as a federal state. In the following analysis the authors in some parts disagree with that conclusion, showing that considering the education area Spain is “heavy at the top”. Due to the state’s exclusive power to regulate the basic conditions guaranteeing the equality of all Spanish citizens, the important and final decisions are taken at the center through the framework legislation. The AC play a minor role in the legislation process, they have to adopt the center decisions. De-centralization and extension of the framework legislation are highly connected: The central state reacted with strong framework legislation to the stages of the educational decentralization process. In addition, the concentration of important framing powers within the central state does not make educational reforms more infrequent. However, such reforms are the results of a competition between the parties, and not between the AC or between the AC and the central state

Traducción de la Ley federal alemana relativa a prestaciones y permisos parentales (Bundeselterngeld- und Elternzeitgesetz) y análisis comparativo de la legislación española

En la UE existen diversas propuestas de nuevas políticas familiares para alcanzar la conciliación de la vida laboral con la familiar.La comparación de las principales novedades de la BEEG con la respectiva legislación española manifiesta las diferencias entre ambos países europeos en su reto de enfrentarse al problema común del envejecimiento poblacional.

Tobin meets Oates: Solidarity and the optimal fiscal federal structure

We explore the implications for the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization when people spreferences for goods and services, which classic treatments of fiscal federalism (Oates, 1972)place in the purview of local governments, exhibit specific egalitarianism (Tobin, 1970), orsolidarity. We find that a system in which the central government provides a common minimumlevel of the publicly provided good, and local governments are allowed to use their ownresources to provide an even higher local level, performs better from an efficiency perspectiverelative to all other systems analyzed for a relevant range of preferences over solidarity.

Sea Urchins Predation Facilitates Coral Invasion in a Marine Reserve

Macroalgae is the dominant trophic group on Mediterranean infralittoral rocky bottoms, whereas zooxanthellate corals are extremely rare. However, in recent years, the invasive coral Oculina patagonica appears to be increasing its abundance through unknown means. Here we examine the pattern of variation of this species at a marine reserve between 2002 and 2010 and contribute to the understanding of the mechanisms that allow its current increase. Because indirect interactions between species can play a relevant role in the establishment of species, a parallel assessment of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, the main herbivorous invertebrate in this habitat and thus a key species, was conducted. O. patagonica has shown a 3-fold increase in abundance over the last 8 years and has become the most abundant invertebrate in the shallow waters of the marine reserve, matching some dominant erect macroalgae in abundance. High recruitment played an important role in this increasing coral abundance. The results from this study provide compelling evidence that the increase in sea urchin abundance may be one of the main drivers of the observed increase in coral abundance. Sea urchins overgraze macroalgae and create barren patches in the space-limited macroalgal community that subsequently facilitate coral recruitment. This study indicates that trophic interactions contributed to the success of an invasive coral in the Mediterranean because sea urchins grazing activity indirectly facilitated expansion of the coral. Current coral abundance at the marine reserve has ended the monopolization of algae in rocky infralittoral assemblages, an event that could greatly modify both the underwater seascape and the sources of primary production in the ecosystem.

Effects of total fishing prohibition on the rocky fish assemblages of Medes Islands marine reserve (NW Mediterranean)

Visual scuba diving censuses were used to assess the effects of fishing prohibition on abundance and size structure of littoral fish populations by comparing the same benthic communities inside and outside the protected area of Medes Islands (NE Catalonia, Spain). The total number of species found was 43 in the reserve and 44 outside, but the mean value of species richness per sampling station was significantly higher in the protected area. However, diversity, heavily affected by the presence or absence of large schools of pelagic species, showed no significant differences between sites. The prohibition of fishing for 6 years is the first factor affecting the qualitative and quantitative structure of fish populations ('reserve effect'), and depth is the second factor. Thus, except in the cases of Serranus cabrilla and Mullus surmuletus, all other vulnerable species are highly sensitive to the protection measures. The size structure of all vulnerable species was found to be absolutely different at the reserve sites than in the unprotected zones, and the modal size classes of size frequency distributions were always higher in the reserve than outside. The reserve effect was significantly responsible of the differences observed in this change on size structure. Some highly vulnerable species, such as Epinephelus guaza and Sciaena umbra, have only been found in the protected area. Others, such as Sparus aurata, Diplodus cervinus and Dicentrarchus labrax, were much more frequent inside the reserve.

Supremacía del derecho federal sobre el Common Law en materia de requisitos de seguridad y eficacia terapéutica de productos sanitarios. Comentario a Riegel v. Medtronic, Inc. [552 U.S.__ (2008); February 20, 2008]

En Riegel v. Medtronic Inc. (552 U.S.__2008; February 20, 2008), el Sr. Riegel tuvo que ser sometido a un by-pass como consecuencia de la rotura del catéter, fabricado por Medtronic, con el que su médico le practicaba una angioplastia. A pesar de que el catéter había obtenido la autorización de comercialización de la FDA y cumplía los requisitos de seguridad previstos por el sistema regulatorio federal, el Sr. Riegel y su mujer interpusieron una acción de daños contra Medtronic –y no contra el médico- conforme a las reglas de responsabilidad civil objetiva y por negligencia del Common Law neoyorquino. Sin embargo, el Tribunal Supremo federal de los EE.UU., en ponencia del Magistrado Antonin Gregory Scalia, votó, por mayoría de ocho magistrados, rechazar el recurso de la Sra. Riegel y confirmar la sentencia de segunda instancia, desestimatoria de la demanda, porque consideró que la regla de primacía del derecho regulatorio federal sobre seguridad de productos sanitarios [Medical Device Amendments de 1976, 21 U.S.C. Artículo 360k(a)] excluye la aplicabilidad no sólo del derecho regulatorio estatal sobre seguridad de productos sanitarios, sino también del Common Law sobre responsabilidad civil del fabricante.

Bat assemblages in the Nietoperek bat reserve (Western Poland) and their conservation strategies

Międzyrzecz Fortified Front, were Natura 2000 site PLH080003 Nietoperek is situated, was built by the Germans in the 1930s and during the World War II. It is composed of above ground bunkers connected by underground tunnels of ca. 32 km total length. Nietoperek is the eighth largest bats hibernation site in EU. Monthly censuses were carried out from October to April during three consecutive winter seasons (2011/12 – 2013/14) in area covering ca. 30% of the undergrounds. The aims of the study were: (1) to describe changes in numbers of each species in the course of hibernation season, (2) to suggest deadlines for counting particular bat species to obtain maximal numbers and (3) to describe negative impact of tourism on hibernating bats. The results will be useful for restriction of winter tourism in Nietoperek. The total number of bats observed during the study was 37869 individuals of 9 species. Because of difficulties in distinguishing without handling M. mystacinus and M. brandtii were treated as one group. M. myotis constituted from 53% (first season) to 64% (last season) of all hibernating bats. The maximal numbers of individuals were observed in November (first two seasons) and in December (third season). M. daubentonii constituted from 27% (first season) to 21% (last season) and M. nattereri from 10% (first season) to 11% (second season) of all bats. During the three seasons the maximal numbers of M. daubentonii and M. nattereri were observed in November and December respectively. B. barbastellus and P. auritus constituted from 4% (first season) to 2% (last season) of the multi species colony. The maximal numbers of B. barbastellus were observed in January and P. auritus in January (first and second seasons) and in December (third season). Results indicated that the best period for counting maximal numbers of M. myotis and M. daubentonii is November, for M. nattereri is December and for B. barbastellus and P. auritus is January. The study undertaken in the part visited by tourists in winter (total length of 900 m) proved negative effect caused by human disturbance with 23% decline of total bat numbers.

Compositional data analysis of vote shares in the 2001 Australian Federal election

First application of compositional data analysis techniques to Australian election data