Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Voting by committees with exit

We study the problem of a society choosing a subset of new members from a finite set of candidates (as in Barberà, Sonnenschein, and Zhou, 1991). However, we explicitly consider the possibility that initial members of the society (founders) may want to leave it if they do not like the resulting new society. We show that, if founders have separable (or additive) preferences, the unique strategy-proof and stable social choice function satisfying voters' sovereignty (on the set of candidates) is the one where candidates are chosen unanimously and no founder leaves the society.

Investment, duration, and exit strategies for corporate and independent venture capital-backed start-ups

We propose a model of investment, duration, and exit strategies for start-ups backed by venture capital (VC) funds that accounts for the high level of uncertainty, the asymmetry of information between insiders and outsiders, and the discount rate. Our analysis predicts that start-ups backed by corporate VC funds remain for a longer period of time before exiting and receive larger investment amounts than those financed by independent VC funds. Although a longer duration leads to a higher likelihood of an exit through an acquisition, a larger investment increases the probability of an IPO exit. These predictions find strong empirical support.

Do women in female-dominated occupations exit the labour market more? Evidence from Italy, Spain, Denmark and the UK

Literature on sex occupational segregation has typically focused on the micro and macro determinants of it, on mobility patterns over the life course, on implications of segregation and mobility for gender inequalities. Rarely the link between sex-type occupations and women’s risk of labour market interruptions over family formation has been explored. In this piece of work we shall analyse whether women who are working in the female-dominated, male-dominated or integrated occupations have more or less chances to remain attached to the labour market, controlling for qualifications, class, sector and contract positions. By drawing from ECHP, and comparing Italy, Spain, Denmark and the UK, we shall in particular see whether such connection varies across countries with different institutional and cultural configurations.We find that, ceteris paribus, only in the UK the sex-composition of an occupation matters: women in female occupations are more likely to move to inactivity than women in mixed or male occupations. In the other countries considered the main cleavages lie elsewhere. In Italy what matters most is the sector of employment (public vs. private). In Spain the sector is relevant too, but also social class and the type of contract held (permanent vs. temporary). In Denmark women’s transitions to inactivity are largely independent of human capital and job characteristics.

Estimating parliamentary composition through electoral polls

Any electoral system has an electoral formula that converts voteproportions into parliamentary seats. Pre-electoral polls usually focuson estimating vote proportions and then applying the electoral formulato give a forecast of the parliament's composition. We here describe theproblems arising from this approach: there is always a bias in theforecast. We study the origin of the bias and some methods to evaluateand to reduce it. We propose some rules to compute the sample sizerequired for a given forecast accuracy. We show by Monte Carlo simulationthe performance of the proposed methods using data from Spanish electionsin last years. We also propose graphical methods to visualize how electoralformulae and parliamentary forecasts work (or fail).

Directorio de expertos en el tratamiento de la información (EXIT). Análisis de uso

Descripción y características del Directorio EXIT (Expertos en el tratamiento de la información), puesto en marcha oficialmente en junio de 2005. A los dos años (julio de 2007) se ha evaluado y analizado su funcionamiento, implantación, visibilidad y aceptación por parte de la comunidad profesional de bibliotecarios, documentalistas, archiveros y especialistas en información a la que sirve, y en especial su uso. Técnicamente, EXIT está considerado un directorio estado-del-arte a nivel mundial, siendo además un genuino producto de la web 2.0 ya que son los propios interesados los que rellenan y mantienen al día sus fichas, bajo la supervisión de sus creadores-gestores y de un Comité Evaluador internacional.

Exact solution to the mean exit time problem for free inertial processes driven by Gaussian white noise

We obtain the exact analytical expression, up to a quadrature, for the mean exit time, T(x,v), of a free inertial process driven by Gaussian white noise from a region (0,L) in space. We obtain a completely explicit expression for T(x,0) and discuss the dependence of T(x,v) as a function of the size L of the region. We develop a new method that may be used to solve other exit time problems.

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

Exact solution to the exit-time problem for an undamped free particle driven by Gaussian white noise

In a recent paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 189 (1995)] we have presented the exact analytical expression for the mean exit time, T(x,v), of a free inertial process driven by Gaussian white noise out of a region (0,L) in space. In this paper we give a detailed account of the method employed and present results on asymptotic properties and averages of T(x,v).

The Determinants of Exit in Argentina: Core and Peripheral Regions

This paper analyses the regional determinants of exit in Argentina. We find evidence of a dynamic revolving door by which past entrants increase current exits, particularly in the peripheral regions. In the central regions, current and past incumbents cause an analogous displacement effect. Also, exit shows a U-shaped relationship with respect to the informal economy, although the positive effect is weaker in the central regions. These findings point to the existence of a core-periphery structure in the spatial distribution of exits. Key words: firm exit, count data models, Argentina JEL: R12; R30; C33

The Significance of Business Exit for Future Entrepreneurial Activity

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of business exits on future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity at the macroeconomic level. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data for 41 countries and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to carry out the analysis. The paper differentiates the effect of the two components of total entrepreneurial activity, and the two motivations for it – opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. Findings: The results presented here show a positive and significant effect of the coefficient associated with exits in all models. This means that the levels of entrepreneurial activity exceed business exits. The robustness of the models are tested, including other variables such as the fear of failure, the Gross Domestic Product, role models, entrepreneurial skills and the unemployment variables. The main hypothesis which stated that at national level business exits imply greater rates of opportunity-driven entrepreneurship is corroborated. Originality/value: One would expect that unemployment rates would imply higher levels of necessity entrepreneurship. However, results show that unemployment rates do in fact favour opportunity entrepreneurship levels. This could be due to those government policies that are aimed at promoting entrepreneurship through the capitalization of unemployment to be totally invested in a new start-up. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first panel data study to link previous exit rates to future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, business exits, social values, industrial organization Paper type: Research paper

Exit times in non-Markovian drifting continuous-time random-walk processes

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to the corrections ensuing from the non-Markovian nature of the process. We show that when drift and jumps have the same sign the relevant integral equations can be solved in closed form. The case when holding times have the classical Erlang distribution is considered in detail.

Unidirectional quantum walks: Evolution and exit times

In this paper we focus our attention on a particle that follows a unidirectional quantum walk, an alternative version of the currently widespread discrete-time quantum walk on a line. Here the walker at each time step can either remain in place or move in a fixed direction, e.g., rightward or upward. While both formulations are essentially equivalent, the present approach leads us to consider discrete Fourier transforms, which eventually results in obtaining explicit expressions for the wave functions in terms of finite sums and allows the use of efficient algorithms based on the fast Fourier transform. The wave functions here obtained govern the probability of finding the particle at any given location but determine as well the exit-time probability of the walker from a fixed interval, which is also analyzed.