Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Cost-effectiveness of early detection of breast cancer in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) causes more deaths than any other cancer among women in Catalonia. Early detection has contributed to the observed decline in BC mortality. However, there is debate on the optimal screening strategy. We performed an economic evaluation of 20 screening strategies taking into account the cost over time of screening and subsequent medical costs, including diagnostic confirmation, initial treatment, follow-up and advanced care. Methods: We used a probabilistic model to estimate the effect and costs over time of each scenario. The effect was measured as years of life (YL), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lives extended (LE). Costs of screening and treatment were obtained from the Early Detection Program and hospital databases of the IMAS-Hospital del Mar in Barcelona. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of different scenarios. Results: Strategies that start at ages 40 or 45 and end at 69 predominate when the effect is measured as YL or QALYs. Biennial strategies 50-69, 45-69 or annual 45-69, 40-69 and 40-74 were selected as cost-effective for both effect measures (YL or QALYs). The ICER increases considerably when moving from biennial to annual scenarios. Moving from no screening to biennial 50-69 years represented an ICER of 4,469€ per QALY. Conclusions: A reduced number of screening strategies have been selected for consideration by researchers, decision makers and policy planners. Mathematical models are useful to assess the impact and costs of BC screening in a specific geographical area.

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.

Detecció, identificació de Mycobacterium tuberculosis i caracterització molecular de la resistència als principals antituberculosos en mostra clínica directa mitjançant piroseqüenciació: aplicabilitat en l’estudi de la clonalitat de les soques.

L’augment de soques de Mycobacerium tuberculosis multiresistents i l’aparició de soques extremadament resistents, ha posat de manifest la necessitat de disposar de nous mètodes de detecció precoç de M.tuberculosis i les seves resistències als principals fàrmacs antituberculosos, així com l’estudi eficaç dels brots, per a poder dur a terme un control eficient de la malaltia. L’objectiu de l’estudi va ser determinar la capacitat de la piroseqüenciació per a detectar i identificar micobacteris a partir d’aïllats clínics i mostra directa, determinar el seu patró de resistència a Rifampicina, Isoniacida, Etambutol, Fluoroquinolones, Canamicina i Capreomicina i explorar la seva potencialitat per a ser emprada en el tipatge molecular de les soques. Mitjançant la optimització de la tecnologia de la piroseqüenciació pels gens analitzats, i el disseny de primers específics, hem verificat la utilitat de la piroseqüenciació per al maneig de la tuberculosi. S’ha pogut estudiar la presència de mutacions relacionades amb resistències a fàrmacs de primera línia en el 96.5% de les posicions analitzades en soca clínica i en el 70.4% en mostra directa. Van concordar amb el resultats obtinguts per altres mètodes fenotípics i/o fenotípics el 97.1% i el 98.2% del resultats obtinguts en soca clínica i mostra directa respectivament. La piroseqüenciació ens ha permet analitzar la presència de mutacions relacionades amb resistències a antituberculosos de segona línia, servint com a mètode de confirmació en l’anàlisi d’altres mètodes genotípics. La tècnica ens ha permès també identificar els principals micobacteris no tuberculosos implicats en la infecció humana, sòls o en coinfecció. Resultats preliminars mostren que l’anàlisi amb piroseqüenciació pot ser d’utilitat per l’estudi clonal de les soques de M.tuberculosis. Les nostres observacions mostren la piroseqüenciació com una eina valuosa en l’àmbit clínic, ja que permet una reducció de la demora del diagnòstic, estudi filogenètic i detecció de resistències M.tuberculosis, i per tant una millora de l’aplicació del tractament adequat, ajudant al control de la malaltia.

Prevención de la violencia

Descripció de la intervenció duta a terme a l'IES Breamo de la Corunya, l'objectiu general de la qual era la prevenció de la violència escolar. Aquest objectiu es concreta en l'elaboració d'un protocol d'actuació de cara a la seva consecució: protocol d'actuació preventiva (primària), de detecció primerenca (secundària) i d'actuació pal·liativa (terciària).

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis andovertreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were:age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population usedmammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools

Análisis multidisciplinar del fenómeno sismo-volcánico de El Hierro (julio 2011)

La erupción volcánica submarina de La Restinga (10 de octubre) ha permitido, por primera vez, poner en marcha el Plan Especial de Protección Civil y Atención de Emergencias por Riesgo Volcánico en la Comunidad Autónoma de Canarias. En este proyecto se ha realizado un análisis multidisciplinar de los principales elementos que han estado involucrados en la gestión de la crisis y sus repercusiones sociales, económicas y ambientales. Los resultados indican que, hoy en día, se cuenta con los medios necesarios para realizar la detección temprana y el seguimiento de procesos similares que tengan lugar en el Archipiélago pero, no obstante, sería necesario actualizar el presente Plan PEVOLCA, debido a las deficiencias detectadas. Estas deficiencias, además de afectar a la gestión del fenómeno sismo-volcánico, han provocado que se tomasen medidas de protección civil que han generado grandes repercusiones sociales y económicas en la Isla. Respecto a las consecuencias ambientales en la Reserva Marina de Punta La Restinga-Mar de Las Calmas se prevé una recuperación a corto plazo, siempre que se apliquen las medidas necesarias.

Guiding students through competence-based educational material

Student guidance is an always desired characteristic in any educational system, butit represents special difficulty if it has to be deployed in an automated way to fulfilsuch needs in a computer supported educational tool. In this paper we explorepossible avenues relying on machine learning techniques, to be included in a nearfuture -in the form of a tutoring navigational tool- in a teleeducation platform -InterMediActor- currently under development. Since no data from that platform isavailable yet, the preliminary experiments presented in this paper are builtinterpreting every subject in the Telecommunications Degree at Universidad CarlosIII de Madrid as an aggregated macro-competence (following the methodologicalconsiderations in InterMediActor), such that marks achieved by students can beused as data for the models, to be replaced in a near future by real data directlymeasured inside InterMediActor. We evaluate the predictability of students qualifications, and we deploy a preventive early detection system -failure alert-, toidentify those students more prone to fail a certain subject such that correctivemeans can be deployed with sufficient anticipation.

Compositional Data in Biomedical Research

Modern methods of compositional data analysis are not well known in biomedical research.Moreover, there appear to be few mathematical and statistical researchersworking on compositional biomedical problems. Like the earth and environmental sciences,biomedicine has many problems in which the relevant scienti c information isencoded in the relative abundance of key species or categories. I introduce three problemsin cancer research in which analysis of compositions plays an important role. Theproblems involve 1) the classi cation of serum proteomic pro les for early detection oflung cancer, 2) inference of the relative amounts of di erent tissue types in a diagnostictumor biopsy, and 3) the subcellular localization of the BRCA1 protein, and it'srole in breast cancer patient prognosis. For each of these problems I outline a partialsolution. However, none of these problems is \solved". I attempt to identify areas inwhich additional statistical development is needed with the hope of encouraging morecompositional data analysts to become involved in biomedical research

Intervenció educativa per a la millora de la detecció precoç de la depressió major en adolescents

La depressió major és una patologia mental que afecta a persones de qualsevol edat, condició econòmica, nivell educatiu, cultural i suposen un gran cost per l’individu, la família, el sistema sanitari i la comunitat en general. Es creu que una de cada cinc persones arribarà a desenvolupar un trastorn depressiu al llarg de la seva vida i que al 2020 serà la segona causa de discapacitat i de pèrdua d’anys de vida saludables a escala mundial i la primera en països desenvolupats. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi quasi experimental és millorar la detecció precoç de la simptomatologia depressiva en adolescents, descriure els factors de risc i atendre les necessitats d’aquests joves. Utilitzarem el Test de Beck Depression Inventory-2nd (BDI-II) i el Patient Health Questionnaire-Adolescent version (PHQ-9) per detectar l’estat de salut mental dels alumnes. No tenim la certesa de que la mostra sigui representativa, ja que escollim un grup intacte d’alumnes de 1r d’ ESO, del municipi de Cardedeu, amb una edat per norma general de 12 -13 anys i per tant, potser una amenaça per la nostra validació ja que el factor entorn influeix directament en la situació sociodemografica de la població escollida, la situació econòmica i familiar.

Coherency and sharpness measures by using ICA algorithms. An investigation for Alzheimer’s disease discrimination

In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different Independent Component Analysis (ICA) algorithms for the calculation of coherency and sharpness of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, in order to investigate the possibility of early detection of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). We found that ICA algorithms can help in the artifact rejection and noise reduction, improving the discriminative property of features in high frequency bands (specially in high alpha and beta ranges). In addition to different ICA algorithms, the optimum number of selected components is investigated, in order to help decision processes for future works.

Investigation of ICA algorithms for feature extraction of EEG signals in discrimination of Alzheimer disease

In this paper we present a quantitative comparisons of different independent component analysis (ICA) algorithms in order to investigate their potential use in preprocessing (such as noise reduction and feature extraction) the electroencephalogram (EEG) data for early detection of Alzhemier disease (AD) or discrimination between AD (or mild cognitive impairment, MCI) and age-match control subjects.

Orthopantomography contribution to prevent isquemic stroke

Objectives: The ortopantomography (OPG) can be a valuable way for an early detection of calcified atheroma plaques, thus contributing for a preliminary stroke risk evaluation. The study looks for the existence of calcified atheroma plates through the use of OPG, comparing the results with the stenosis percentage found through eco-doppler. It has been analyzed the correlation of the number of years as a smoker, arterial hypertension and body mass index, against the risk of having calcified atheroma plaques. Study Design: Observational, transversal and prospective study with 84 patients from the Dental Center of Hospital Particular de Lisboa. First the patients answered to an inquiry and them they were submitted to an OPG and an eco-doppler. Results and Conclusions: It is possible to detect calcified atheroma plaques in the carotid artery through an OPG and patients who have them have got a fifteen fold greater risk of suffering from carotid stenosis. In this study, it has been confirmed the increase in carotid stenosis for long term smokers (OR = 1,033, n=18, 42,9%). The study results show that hypertension patients have a probability 5,426 greater than normal of developing atheroma plaques (with sig=0,049). Amid analyzed patients, the correlation between obesity and the existence of carotid atheroma plaques was significant, although negative (sig=0,047). OPG can help find patients with higher risk of isquemic stroke

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

Dissemination of periodic mammography and patterns of use, by birth cohort, in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: In Catalonia (Spain) breast cancer mortality has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. The dissemination of early detection by mammography and the introduction of adjuvant treatments are among the possible causes of this decrease, and both were almost coincident in time. Thus, understanding how these procedures were incorporated into use in the general population and in women diagnosed with breast cancer is very important for assessing their contribution to the reduction in breast cancer mortality. In this work we have modeled the dissemination of periodic mammography and described repeat mammography behavior in Catalonia from 1975 to 2006. Methods: Cross-sectional data from three Catalan Health Surveys for the calendar years 1994, 2002 and 2006 was used. The dissemination of mammography by birth cohort was modeled using a mixed effects model and repeat mammography behavior was described by age and survey year. Results: For women born from 1938 to 1952, mammography clearly had a period effect, meaning that they started to have periodic mammograms at the same calendar years but at different ages. The age at which approximately 50% of the women were receiving periodic mammograms went from 57.8 years of age for women born in 1938–1942 to 37.3 years of age for women born in 1963–1967. Women in all age groups experienced an increase in periodic mammography use over time, although women in the 50–69 age group have experienced the highest increase. Currently, the target population of the Catalan Breast Cancer Screening Program, 50–69 years of age, is the group that self-reports the highest utilization of periodic mammograms, followed by the 40–49 age group. A higher proportion of women of all age groups have annual mammograms rather than biennial or irregular ones. Conclusion: Mammography in Catalonia became more widely implemented during the 1990s. We estimated when cohorts initiated periodic mammograms and how frequently women are receiving them. These two pieces of information will be entered into a cost-effectiveness model of early detection in Catalonia.