Exit times in non-Markovian drifting continuous-time random-walk processes

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to the corrections ensuing from the non-Markovian nature of the process. We show that when drift and jumps have the same sign the relevant integral equations can be solved in closed form. The case when holding times have the classical Erlang distribution is considered in detail.

Desequilibri 234Th/238U per a l'estudi del cicle de partícules al Mediterrani nord-occidental

El desequilibri 238U/234Th s’utilitza per traçar el cicle de les partícules a la part més superficial dels oceans. Això és possible degut a les diferències entre els seus períodes de semidesintegració (T1/2 (234Th)=24,1 d; T1/2 (238U)=4,5 10 9 anys) i a les seves característiques biogeoquímiques: el Th presenta una gran afinitat per les partícules mentre que l’U és conservatiu en aigua de mar. En absència de partícules s’esperaria tenir equilibri secular entre ambdós radionúclids, però com que l’oceà no està lliure de partícules, el 234Th és exportat des de les capes més superficials produint-se un dèficit respecte el seu pare, l’238U. El període de semidesintegració del 234Th és molt adequat per traçar processos d’escales temporals de dies a setmanes, del mateix ordre que el desenvolupament de la floració del fitoplàncton i a la posterior exportació de partícules. En aquest treball es presenten dades obtingudes durant dues campanyes oceanogràfiques realitzades en el marc del Projecte FAMOSO (2009) en el Mediterrani nordoccidental, abans i després de la floració de fitoplàncton de primavera a la zona. Una de les peculiaritats d’aquesta regió és el procés de convecció profunda d’hivern, el qual suposa un important mecanisme de fertilització. A partir dels fluxos de 234Th obtinguts a la columna d’aigua es poden establir les pautes temporals que ha seguit el fitoplàncton en les setmanes prèvies al mostreig. Aquesta informació es compara amb els fluxos obtinguts utilitzant trampes de sediment a la deriva instal·lades durant ambdues campanyes.

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

Stable C and N isotope concentration in several tissues of the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta from the western Mediterranean and dietary implications

The isotopic concentrations of carapace scutes, skin, muscle and blood of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from the Balearic Archipelago were analysed to investigate the pattern of variation between tissues and to assess the position of this species in the trophic webs of the Algerian Basin. Skin showed higher δ13C values than muscle or carapace scutes and these showed higher values than blood. Conversely, muscle showed higher δ15N values than skin, skin showed higher values than blood and blood showed higher values than carapace scutes. Dead and live sea turtles from the same habitat did not differ in the concentration of stable isotopes. However, some of the tissues of the turtles caught in drifting longlines in the oceanic realm showed higher δ13C values than those from the turtles caught by hand or in trammel nets over the continental shelf, although they did not differ in the δ15N. Comparison of the concentration of stable isotopes in the turtles with that of other species from several areas of the Algerian Basin revealed that they consumed planktonic prey and that the trophic level of the sea turtles was higher than that of carnivorous cnidarians but lower than that of zooplanktophagous fish and crustaceans.

Drift and ownership toward a distant virtual body.

In body ownership illusions participants feel that a mannequin or virtual body (VB) is their own. Earlier results suggest that body ownership over a body seen from behind in extra personal space is possible when the surrogate body is visually stroked and tapped on its back, while spatially and temporal synchronous tactile stimulation is applied to the participant's back. This result has been disputed with the claim that the results can be explained by self-recognition rather than somatic body ownership. We carried out an experiment with 30 participants in a between-groups design. They all saw the back of a VB 1.2 m in front, that moved in real-time determined by upper body motion capture. All felt tactile stimulation on their back, and for 15 of them this was spatially and temporally synchronous with stimulation that they saw on the back of the VB, but asynchronous for the other 15. After 3 min a revolving fan above the VB descended and stopped at the position of the VB neck. A questionnaire assessed referral of touch to the VB, body ownership, the illusion of drifting forwards toward the VB, and the VB drifting backwards. Heart rate deceleration (HRD) and the amount of head movement during the threat period were used to assess the response to the threat from the fan. Results showed that although referral of touch was significantly greater in the synchronous condition than the asynchronous, there were no other differences between the conditions. However, a further multivariate analysis revealed that in the visuotactile synchronous condition HRD and head movement increased with the illusion of forward drift and decreased with backwards drift. Body ownership contributed positively to these drift sensations. Our conclusion is that the setup results in a contradiction-somatic feelings associated with a distant body-that the brain attempts to resolve by generating drift illusions that would make the two bodies coincide.

Drift and ownership toward a distant virtual body.

In body ownership illusions participants feel that a mannequin or virtual body (VB) is their own. Earlier results suggest that body ownership over a body seen from behind in extra personal space is possible when the surrogate body is visually stroked and tapped on its back, while spatially and temporal synchronous tactile stimulation is applied to the participant's back. This result has been disputed with the claim that the results can be explained by self-recognition rather than somatic body ownership. We carried out an experiment with 30 participants in a between-groups design. They all saw the back of a VB 1.2 m in front, that moved in real-time determined by upper body motion capture. All felt tactile stimulation on their back, and for 15 of them this was spatially and temporally synchronous with stimulation that they saw on the back of the VB, but asynchronous for the other 15. After 3 min a revolving fan above the VB descended and stopped at the position of the VB neck. A questionnaire assessed referral of touch to the VB, body ownership, the illusion of drifting forwards toward the VB, and the VB drifting backwards. Heart rate deceleration (HRD) and the amount of head movement during the threat period were used to assess the response to the threat from the fan. Results showed that although referral of touch was significantly greater in the synchronous condition than the asynchronous, there were no other differences between the conditions. However, a further multivariate analysis revealed that in the visuotactile synchronous condition HRD and head movement increased with the illusion of forward drift and decreased with backwards drift. Body ownership contributed positively to these drift sensations. Our conclusion is that the setup results in a contradiction-somatic feelings associated with a distant body-that the brain attempts to resolve by generating drift illusions that would make the two bodies coincide.