Elicitation of subjective crop yield PDF

En este trabajo se investiga la coherencia y confiabilidad de estimaciones de funciones de densidad de probabilidad (FDP) subjetivas de rendimientos de cultivos realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. Se utilizaron tres técnicas de elicitación diferentes: el método de estimación de FDP en dos pasos, la distribución Triangular y la distribución Beta. Los sujetos entrevistados ofrecieron estimaciones para los valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos (medio, máximo posible, más frecuente y mínimo posible) y para las FDP basadas en la estimación de intervalos. Para evaluar la persistencia, se utilizaron los conceptos de persistencia temporal y persistencia metodológica. Los resultados son interesantes para juzgar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas a los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Short communication. Persistence of point crop yield subjective estimates

En este trabajo se investiga la persistencia de las estimaciones puntuales subjetivas de rendimientos en cultivos anua- les realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. La persistencia en el tiempo es una condición necesaria para la co- herencia y la confiabilidad de las estimaciones subjetivas de variables aleatorias. Los sujetos entrevistados estimaron valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos anuales (rendimientos medio, mayor, mínimo y más frecuente). Se han encontrado diferencias relativas poco importantes en todas las variables, excepto en los rendimientos mínimos, donde existe una alta dispersión. Los resultados son interesantes para estimar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas para ser utilizadas en los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Clustering of grape yield maps to delineate site-specific management zones

Zonal management in vineyards requires the prior delineation of stable yield zones within the parcel. Among the different methodologies used for zone delineation, cluster analysis of yield data from several years is one of the possibilities cited in scientific literature. However, there exist reasonable doubts concerning the cluster algorithm to be used and the number of zones that have to be delineated within a field. In this paper two different cluster algorithms have been compared (k-means and fuzzy c-means) using the grape yield data corresponding to three successive years (2002, 2003 and 2004), for a ‘Pinot Noir’ vineyard parcel. Final choice of the most recommendable algorithm has been linked to obtaining a stable pattern of spatial yield distribution and to allowing for the delineation of compact and average sized areas. The general recommendation is to use reclassified maps of two clusters or yield classes (low yield zone and high yield zone) and, consequently, the site-specific vineyard management should be based on the prior delineation of just two different zones or sub-parcels. The two tested algorithms are good options for this purpose. However, the fuzzy c-means algorithm allows for a better zoning of the parcel, forming more compact areas and with more equilibrated zonal differences over time.

Effects of crop and weed densities on the interactions between barley and Lolium rigidum in several Mediterranean locations

The effects of both barley and Lolium rigidum densities on weed growth and spike production and on crop yield were examined in five field experiments carried out in the Mediterranean drylands of Spain and Western Australia. The aim was to check the consistency of the competitiveness of the crop in different environmental and management conditions. L. rigidum reduced barley yields in most of the experiments (between 0 and 85%), the number of ears per m2 being the most affected. It was found that increasing the barley seeding rate did not reduce the crop losses but did limit weed biomass (between 5 and 61%) and spike production (between 24 and 85%). The variability observed in crop yield losses between sites and seasons was related to rainfall at the beginning of the season. The most sensitive component of yield to weed competition was the number of ears per plant.

Comparison between land suitability and actual crop distribution in an irrigation district of the Ebro valley (Spain)

El objetivo de la presente investigación fue analizar la correspondencia entre los resultados de una evaluación de tierras con la distribución real de los cultivos. Para ello la aptitud biofísica de las tierras se comparó con diferentes tipologías de frecuencia de ocurrencia de los cultivos y rotaciones derivadas de mapas de cultivos multitemporales. La investigación fue llevada a cabo en el distrito de riego de Flumen (33.000 ha), localizado en el valle del Ebro (NE España). La evaluación de tierras se basó en una cartografía de suelos 1:100.000, según el esquema FAO, para los principales cultivos presentes en el área de estudio (alfalfa, cereales de invierno, maíz, arroz y girasol). Se utilizaron tres mapas de frecuencia de cultivos y un mapa de rotaciones, derivado de una serie temporal de imágenes Landsat TM y ETM+ del periodo 1993-2000, y se compararon con los mapas de aptitud de tierras para los diferentes cultivos. Se analizó estadísticamente (Pearson χ2, Cramer V, Gamma y Somers D) la relación entre los dos tipos de variables. Los resultados muestran la existencia de una relación significativa (P=0,001) entre la localización de los cultivos y la idoneidad de las tierras, excepto de cultivos oportunistas como el girasol, muy influenciado por las subvenciones en el periodo estudiado. Las rotaciones basadas en la alfalfa muestran los mayores porcentajes (52%) de ocupación en las tierras más aptas para la agricultura en el área de estudio. El presente enfoque multitemporal de análisis de la información ofrece una visión más real que la comparación entre un mapa de evaluación de tierras y un mapa de cultivos de una fecha determinada, cuando se valora el grado de acuerdo entre las recomendaciones sobre la aptitud de las tierras y los cultivos realmente cultivados por los agricultores.

Review. Precision viticulture. Research topics, challenges and opportunities in site-specific vineyard management

Precision Viticulture (PV) is a concept that is beginning to have an impact on the wine-growing sector. Its practical implementation is dependant on various technological developments: crop sensors and yield monitors, local and remote sensors, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), VRA (Variable-Rate Application) equipment and machinery, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and systems for data analysis and interpretation. This paper reviews a number of research lines related to PV. These areas of research have focused on four very specific fields: 1) quantification and evaluation of within-field variability, 2) delineation of zones of differential treatment at parcel level, based on the analysis and interpretation of this variability, 3) development of Variable-Rate Technologies (VRT) and, finally, 4) evaluation of the opportunities for site-specific vineyard management. Research in these fields should allow winegrowers and enologists to know and understand why yield variability exists within the same parcel, what the causes of this variability are, how the yield and its quality are interrelated and, if spatial variability exists, whether site-specific vineyard management is justifiable on a technical and economic basis.

Percepción por los expertos de la función de densidad de probabilidad de los rendimientos de cultivos

En la literatura sobre determinación subjetiva de funciones de densidad de probabilidad (f.d.p.) de rendimientos de cultivos, se ha señalado que los agricultores tienden a percibir f.d.p. muy «estrechas» (con varianza baja), un resultado que coincide con el señalado en otros contextos experimentales. En este trabajo se ha constatado que investigadores y expertos en producción vegetal tienen también una pobre percepción de la forma de la f.d.p. Este sesgo en la percepción de la f.d.p. sería compartido por agricultores y expertos, estos últimos con una buena formación estadística. Sin embargo ambos grupos realizan un trabajo diario exitoso que implica frecuentemente discriminar entre f.d.p. de rendimientos de cultivos.

Analysis of vineyard differential management zones and relation to vine development, grape maturity and quality

The objective of research was to analyse the potential of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps from satellite images, yield maps and grapevine fertility and load variables to delineate zones with different wine grape properties for selective harvesting. Two vineyard blocks located in NE Spain (Cabernet Sauvignon and Syrah) were analysed. The NDVI was computed from a Quickbird-2 multi-spectral image at veraison (July 2005). Yield data was acquired by means of a yield monitor during September 2005. Other variables, such as the number of buds, number of shoots, number of wine grape clusters and weight of 100 berries were sampled in a 10 rows × 5 vines pattern and used as input variables, in combination with the NDVI, to define the clusters as alternative to yield maps. Two days prior to the harvesting, grape samples were taken. The analysed variables were probable alcoholic degree, pH of the juice, total acidity, total phenolics, colour, anthocyanins and tannins. The input variables, alone or in combination, were clustered (2 and 3 Clusters) by using the ISODATA algorithm, and an analysis of variance and a multiple rang test were performed. The results show that the zones derived from the NDVI maps are more effective to differentiate grape maturity and quality variables than the zones derived from the yield maps. The inclusion of other grapevine fertility and load variables did not improve the results.

Tritordeum, wheat and triticale yield components under multi-local mediterranean drought conditions

The species x location interaction was of great importance in explaining the behaviour of genetic material. The study presented here shows, for the first time, the performance, under field conditions of the new tritordeum species, compared to wheat and triticale in a wide range of Mediterranean countries (Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia). The results obtained revealed that despite the diversity of environmental conditions, the main differences in yield were due to genotypes, especially to differences between species. The multi-local study with different growth conditions revealed important information about the water availability effect on yield. In the lowest yielding environments (Tunisia rainfed), Tritordeum and triticale yields were equivalent. However under better growth conditions (Spain), tritordeum yield was shown to be lower than wheat and triticale. Interestingly, when water limitation was extended during the pre-anthesis period, differences in tritordeum versus wheat-triticale yield rate were larger than when water stress occurred during anthesis. These variations were explained by the fact that kernel weight has been found as the limiting factor for yield determination in tritordeum, and a delay in the anthesis date may have been the cause for the low kernel weight and low yield under Mediterranean drought conditions. Such differences in yield between tritordeum and wheat or triticale could be explained by the fact that tritordeum is a relatively new species and far fewer resources have been devoted to its improvement when compared to wheat and triticale. Our results suggest that breeding efforts should be directed to an earlier anthesis date and a longer grain filling period. tritordeum proved to have possibilities to be grown under drought environments as a new crop, since its performance was quite close to wheat and triticale. Besides, it has qualitative added values that may improve farmers' income per unit land.

Regions of rationality: Maps for bounded agents

An important problem in descriptive and prescriptive research in decision making is to identify regions of rationality, i.e., the areas for which heuristics are and are not effective. To map the contours of such regions, we derive probabilities that heuristics identify the best of m alternatives (m > 2) characterized by k attributes or cues (k > 1). The heuristics include a single variable (lexicographic), variations of elimination-by-aspects, equal weighting, hybrids of the preceding, and models exploiting dominance. We use twenty simulated and four empirical datasets for illustration. We further provide an overview by regressing heuristic performance on factors characterizing environments. Overall, sensible heuristics generally yield similar choices in many environments. However, selection of the appropriate heuristic can be important in some regions (e.g., if there is low inter-correlation among attributes/cues). Since our work assumes a hit or miss decision criterion, we conclude by outlining extensions for exploring the effects of different loss functions.

Sink limitations to yield in wheat : how could it be reduced?

Further genetic gains in wheat yield are required to match expected increases in demand. This may require the identification of physiological attributes able to produce such improvement, as well as the genetic bases controlling those traits in order to facilitate their manipulation. In the present paper, a theoretical framework of source and sink limitation to wheat yield is presented and the fine-tuning of crop development as an alternative for increasing yield potential is discussed. Following a top-down approach, most crop physiologists have agreed that the main attribute explaining past genetic gains in yield was harvest index (HI). By virtue of previous success, no further gains may be expected in HI and an alternative must be found. Using a bottom-up approach, the present paper firstly provides evidence on the generalized sink-limited condition of grain growth, determining that for further increases in yield potential, sink strength during grain filling has to be increased. The focus should be on further increasing grain number per m2, through fine-tuning pre-anthesis developmental patterns. The phase of rapid spike growth period (RSGP) is critical for grain number determination and increasing spike growth during pre-anthesis would result in an increased number of grains. This might be achieved by lengthening the duration of the phase (though without altering flowering time), as there is genotypic variation in the proportion of pre-anthesis time elapsed either before or after the onset of the stem elongation phase. Photoperiod sensitivity during RSGP could be then used as a genetic tool to further increase grain number, since slower development results in smoother floret development and more floret primordia achieve the fertile floret stage, able to produce a grain. Far less progress has been achieved on the genetic control of this attribute. None of the well-known major Ppd alleles seems to be consistently responsible for RSGP sensitivity. Alternatives for identifying the genetic factors responsible for this sensitivity (e.g. quantitative trait locus (QTL) identification in mapping populations) are being considered.

Yield in double cropping system as affected by N fertilization rate with pig slurry in a Catalonia dryland region

Intensive swine production is an important agricultural and economical activity in Europe. The high availability of pig slurry (PS) lead to attractive fertilization strategy to reduce costs, therefore is mainly applied as fertilizer in agricultural systems. The optimization N fertilization in these areas should be taken in into to avoid nitrates losses by lixiviation and to achieve maximum efficiency in crop nutrition. Many studies have shown that PS applications can achieve satisfactory yields in different crops by partially or completely replacing synthetic fertilizers. In addition, for the last years, in Northeast Spain (Catalonia) has been widely extended the double-cropping forage system.

Not all university degrees yield the same return: private and social returns to higher education for males in Spain

In this paper we use micro data from the Spanish Family Expenditure Survey for 1990 to estimate, for the first time, the private and social rates of return of different university degrees in Spain. We compute internal rates of return and include investment on higher education financed by the public purse to estimate social rates of return. Our main finding is that, as presumed, there is large heterogeneity in rates of return amongst different university

Bifurcations of homoclinic tangency in two-dimensional area-preserving and reversible maps

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Research Institute for Applied Mathematics and Cybernetics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, from July to September 2006. Within the project, bifurcations of orbit behavior in area-preserving and reversible maps with a homoclinic tangency were studied. Finitely smooth normal forms for such maps near saddle fixed points were constructed and it was shown that they coincide in the main order with the analytical Birkhoff-Moser normal form. Bifurcations of single-round periodic orbits for two-dimensional symplectic maps close to a map with a quadratic homoclinic tangency were studied. The existence of one- and two-parameter cascades of elliptic periodic orbits was proved.

Renormalization and α-limit set for expanding Lorenz maps

We establish a one-to-one correspondence between the renormalizations and proper totally invariant closed sets (i.e., α-limit sets) of expanding Lorenz map, which enable us to distinguish periodic and non-periodic renormalizations. We describe the minimal renormalization by constructing the minimal totally invariant closed set, so that we can define the renormalization operator. Using consecutive renormalizations, we obtain complete topological characteriza- tion of α-limit sets and nonwandering set decomposition. For piecewise linear Lorenz map with slopes ≥ 1, we show that each renormalization is periodic and every proper α-limit set is countable.