Risk sharing with the monarch: Excusable defaults and contingent debt in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598

Contingent sovereign debt can create important welfare gains. Nonetheless,there is almost no issuance today. Using hand-collected archival data, we examine thefirst known case of large-scale use of state-contingent sovereign debt in history. Philip IIof Spain entered into hundreds of contracts whose value and due date depended onverifiable, exogenous events such as the arrival of silver fleets. We show that this allowedfor effective risk-sharing between the king and his bankers. The data also stronglysuggest that the defaults that occurred were excusable they were simply contingenciesover which Crown and bankers had not contracted previously.

Treball de camp a una colònia de xatrac comú (sterna hirundo) en Alemanya

Estudio elaborado a partir de una estancia en el Institut fur Vogelforschung. El objeto de la estancia fue participar en la campaña de campo en la colonia de Charrán común (Sterna hirundo) situada en Wilhelmshaven (Alemania), entre los meses de mayo y agosto de 2005. Esta participación se llevó a cabo bajo la dirección del Prof. Dr. Peter H. Becker y junto a su equipo. Se participó en la recogida rutinaria de datos de la colonia así como en distintas técnicas relacionadas con el presente proyecto, como el marcaje de pollos, su observación directa desde escondites y la recogida de distintas muestras biológicas. El objetivo principal era continuar con la obtención de datos para el trabajo de investigación sobre la influencia de la calidad y la condición parental en la manipulación adaptativa de la razón de sexos y la asignación por sexos. La obtención de datos se basa en la implantación de transponders en pollos, que permiten la identificación de cada charrán de por vida. La combinación de esta información con la observación directa de cebas hace de la colonia un lugar excepcional, lo que permite conocer los factores que influyen en las tendencias que existan. Sin embargo, el objetivo específico de la campaña se centraba en investigar la variabilidad individual de la respuesta inmune en los pollos de charrán en relación a un número de atributos de los propios pollos (sexo, tamaño, tasa de crecimiento, proteínas en plasma, hematocrito, carga parasitaria, carotenos en plasma, isótopos de las plumas), de los padres (fecha y tamaño de puesta, calidad parental) y de las condiciones de cría (orden de eclosión, densidad de la sub-colonia). Los resultados de estos datos obtenidos durante la campaña respaldan que existe una influencia de la condición nutricional y la calidad parental en la respuesta immune de los pollos, debida probablemente a un esfuerzo reproductivo diferencial.

Tres notes sobre l’Ars predicandi populo de Francesc Eiximenis (autoria, datació i contingut) = Three notes on the Ars Predicandi populo of Francesc Eiximenis (authorship, date and content)

In spite of the fact that the Ars predicandi populo is attributed to Eiximenis in only one of the three extant manuscripts, there is no doubt that it is one of his works.First of all, the internal references to this treatise in the pages of Terç and Dotzè del Crestià are an irrefutable testimony and, secondly, the presence of an autographvolume of sermons which begins with the Ars in the inventory of the Eiximenis library made shortly after his death. The writing of the Ars and the collection of sermons which introduces it must be dated prior to the beginning of the Crestià encyclopedia (1379) because of the complexity that entailed the writing of a collection of three perhaps four volumes of sermons. Due to a series of formal and codicological reasons it must be concluded that the chapter entitled De consiliis circa predicacionem cannot be attributed to Eiximenis and thus be excluded from the Ars

Common law and civil law as pro-market adaptations

We argue that in the development of the Western legal system, cognitive departures are themain determinant of the optimal degree of judicial rule-making. Judicial discretion, seen here as the main distinguishing feature between both legal systems, is introduced in civil law jurisdictions to protect, rather than to limit, freedom of contract against potential judicial backlash. Such protection was unnecessary in common law countries, where free-market relations enjoyed safer judicial ground mainly due to their relatively gradual evolution, their reliance on practitioners as judges, and the earlier development of institutional checks and balances that supported private property rights. In our framework, differences in costs and benefits associated with self-interest and lack of information require a cognitive failure to be active.

Reciprocal Translocations in Cattle: frequency estimation

Chromosomal anomalies, like Robertsonian and reciprocal translocations represent a big problem in cattle breeding as their presence induces, in the carrier subjects, a well documented fertility reduction. In cattle reciprocal translocations (RCPs, a chromosome abnormality caused by an exchange of material between nonhomologous chromosomes) are considered rare as to date only 19 reciprocal translocations have been described. In cattle it is common knowledge that the Robertsonian translocations represent the most common cytogenetic anomalies, and this is probably due to the existence of the endemic 1;29 Robertsonian translocation. However, these considerations are based on data obtained using techniques that are unable to identify all reciprocal translocations and thus their frequency is clearly underestimated. The purpose of this work is to provide a first realistic estimate of the impact of RCPs in the cattle population studied, trying to eliminate the factors which have caused an underestimation of their frequency so far. We performed this work using a mathematical as well as a simulation approach and, as biological data, we considered the cytogenetic results obtained in the last 15 years. The results obtained show that only 16% of reciprocal translocations can be detected using simple Giemsa techniques and consequently they could be present in no less than 0,14% of cattle subjects, a frequency five times higher than that shown by de novo Robertsonian translocations. This data is useful to open a debate about the need to introduce a more efficient method to identify RCP in cattle.

RiskDiff: A web tool for the analysis of the difference due to risk and demographic factors for incidence or mortality data.

Background Analysing the observed differences for incidence or mortality of a particular disease between two different situations (such as time points, geographical areas, gender or other social characteristics) can be useful both for scientific or administrative purposes. From an epidemiological and public health point of view, it is of great interest to assess the effect of demographic factors in these observed differences in order to elucidate the effect of the risk of developing a disease or dying from it. The method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the observed variation into three components: risk, population structure and population size is a common choice at practice. Results A web-based application, called RiskDiff has been implemented (available at http://rht.iconcologia.net/riskdiff.htm webcite), to perform this kind of statistical analyses, providing text and graphical summaries. Code from the implemented functions in R is also provided. An application to cancer mortality data from Catalonia is used for illustration. Conclusions Combining epidemiological with demographical factors is crucial for analysing incidence or mortality from a disease, especially if the population pyramids show substantial differences. The tool implemented may serve to promote and divulgate the use of this method to give advice for epidemiologic interpretation and decision making in public health.

Short communication.Wood identification based on their common name and their transversal surface anatomy. Application to the batch from the expedition of Ruiz and Pavon

Aim of study: To identify species of wood samples based on common names and anatomical analyses of their transversal surfaces (without microscopic preparations). Area of study: Spain and South America Material and methods: The test was carried out on a batch of 15 lumber samples deposited in the Royal Botanical Garden in Madrid, from the expedition by Ruiz and Pavon (1777-1811). The first stage of the methodology is to search and to make a critical analysis of the databases which list common nomenclature along with scientific nomenclature. A geographic filter was then applied to the information resulting from the samples with a more restricted distribution. Finally an anatomical verification was carried out with a pocket microscope with a magnification of x40, equipped with a 50 micrometers resolution scale. Main results: The identification of the wood based exclusively on the common name is not useful due to the high number of alternative possibilities (14 for “naranjo”, 10 for “ébano”, etc.). The common name of one of the samples (“huachapelí mulato”) enabled the geographic origin of the samples to be accurately located to the shipyard area in Guayaquil (Ecuador). Given that Ruiz y Pavon did not travel to Ecuador, the specimens must have been obtained by Tafalla. It was possible to determine correctly 67% of the lumber samples from the batch. In 17% of the cases the methodology did not provide a reliable identification. Research highlights: It was possible to determine correctly 67% of the lumber samples from the batch and their geographic provenance. The identification of the wood based exclusively on the common name is not useful.

Predation on common tern eggs by the yellow-legged gull at the Ebro Delta

The Ebro Delta holds a large seabird community, including a common tern (Sterna hirundo) local population of 3,085 pairs in 2000 which breeds scattered in several colonies. At El Canalot colony, 1,178 (1999) and 1,156 pairs (2000) of this species bred distributed in 32 and 38 sub-colonies respectively. These sub-colonies varied in size from 1 to 223 pairs and were placed near the main breeding colonies of yellow-legged gulls (Larus cachinnans) and Audouin´s gulls (L. audouinii), which are potential egg-predators of terns. We studied egg predation during 1999 (6 sub-colonies) and 2000 (27 sub-colonies). Overall, we found that 10.6% of the nests in 1999 and 16.7% in 2000 suffered partial or total egg predation, being total in 81.1% of the predatory events. Predation was significantly higher in small sub-colonies (< 11 pairs): 49.4% in 1999 and 75.5% in 2000. Only attacks from yellow-legged gulls were observed, and defence behaviour of terns was significantly more frequent against this gull species (40.5 hours of observation), suggesting that in most cases the egg predation recorded was due to this species. Probability of egg predation was significantly and negatively correlated with distance to the nearest yellow-legged gull sub-colony, although this relationship was no more significant after adjustment for sub-colony size. On the other hand, distance to the nearest Audouin´s gull sub-colony did not show any effect. Our results suggest that the impact of large gulls (at least yellow-legged gulls) upon smaller seabirds breeding in the area might be important, especially when they are breeding in small sub-colonies. Further studies are needed to analyse the general impact of large gulls upon the breeding populations of other colonial bird species in the area.

Prescription in the proposal for a common european sales law

The rules on prescription in Part VIII, Chapter 18, of the Proposal for a Common European Sales Law (CESL) follow the provisions of the Principles of European Contract Law (PECL) and the Draft Common Frame of Reference (DCFR), which, in general, have deserved favourable comments. Yet, a number of rules contained in those texts have been omitted. It is necessary to ascertain whether the CESL rules only apply to provisions on rights and claims resulting from sales or related services contracts, or whether they are also applicable to any other contractual right or claim and also to rights or claims of non-contractual origin. One of the most problematic issues concerns general prescription periods: firstly, because there are two general periods, a short one and a long one, without any specification about the claims or rights covered by each one of them; secondly, because neither period is suitable in case of non-conformity. There are also some interpretation problems due to missing, ambiguous or defective definitions. The systematic approach demands clarification too.