Strategic mass killings

Since World War II there have been about fifty episodes of large-scale mass killings of civilians and massive forced displacements. They were usually meticulously planned and independent of military goals. We provide a model where conflict onset, conflict intensity and the decision to commit mass killings are all endogenous, with two main goals: (1) to identify the key variables and situations that make mass killings more likely to occur; and (2) to distinguish conditions under which mass killings and military conflict intensity reinforce each other from situations where they are substitute modes of strategic violence. We predict that mass killings are most likely in societies with large natural resources, significant proportionality constraints for rent sharing, low productivity and low state capacity. Further, massacres are more likely in a civil than in an interstate war, as in the latter group sizes matter less for future rents. In non polarized societies there are asymmetric equilibria with only the larger group wanting to engage in massacres. In such settings the smaller group compensates for this by fighting harder in the first place. In this case we can talk of mass killings and fighting efforts to be substitutes. In contrast, in polarized societies either both or none of the groups can be ready to do mass killings in case of victory. Under the "shadow of mass killings" groups fight harder. Hence, in this case massacres and fighting are complements. We also present novel empirical results on the role of natural resources in mass killings and on what kinds of ethnic groups are most likely to be victimized in massacres and forced resettlements, using group level panel data.

Violence and displacement. Evidence from the Spanish civil war (1936-1939)

This paper explores the relationship between violence and displacement during civil war focusing on two different forms of population movements (i.e. incoming and outgoing), and two different forms of violence (i.e. direct and indirect). The paper explores the relationship between displacement and violence at the local level in the context of a civil war fought conventionally using fine-grained data from 1,062 municipalities of the region of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). First, the paper suggests that exogenous and endogenous to the war factors combine to generate patterns of resettlement. Second, the evidence indicates that, in acivil war context, refugee flows and violence are interrelated in multiple ways: the arrival of internal refugees in a locality promotes the perpetration of direct violence against civilians; this, in turn, triggers the departure of people from the locality when the other group approaches. Third, indirect violence (i.e. bombings) shows to be the most significant factor accounting for external displacement at the local level, suggesting that bombing can serve as a strong signal for civilians of the type of armed group they are facing. Finally, the Spanish case suggests that the demographic changes provoked by displacement, combined with the lethality of the conflict, are likely to have long-term political consequences.

Menores, educación y conflicto armado: un análisis desde la realidad africana 15 años después del Informe Machel

Si bien en los últimos años África Subsahariana ha registrado un notable descenso del número de conflictos armados, un buen número de países sigue padeciendo las consecuencias de la violencia armada, especialmente algunos contextos como el de la República Democrática del Congo, la región de Darfur (oeste de Sudán) o Somalia, por citar algunos ejemplos. Tal y como desde el ámbito institucional (Naciones Unidas u ONG) o el académico llevan señalando desde hace varios años, la principal víctima de la violencia suele ser la población civil, principalmente los menores y las mujeres. El presente artículo tiene como objetivo analizar el impacto que los conflictos armados africanos tienen en la infancia y en aspectos tan importantes como su educación. Este objeto de estudio cuenta en los últimos años con un importante referente como fue la publicación en el año 1996 del denominado «Informe Machel». Quince años después de la aparición de este documento, resulta de interés hacer un pequeño balance sobre algunos de los avances, déficits y principales retos de la protección de los menores en conflictos armados.