The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

Nominal plural marking of nonce words in child Spanish

This study addresses the issue of Spanish plural marking considering data from three sources: existent words, loan words and nonce words. Specifically, we are interested in the role of stress placement and word-final sound in the use of /-es/ for plural formation. We present data concerning the interaction of these two features for children and adults. Our findings suggest that this phenomenon is a classic example of over generalization in acquisition. Stress does not seem a determining feature by itself. Its main effect is produced when it interacts with the structure of the syllable

Seeds of hope: Assessing the effect of development aid on the reduction of child mortality

The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.

Neither Private nor Public: The Effects of Communal Provision of Water on Child Health in Peru

The literature on local services has focused on the effects of privatization and, if anything, has compared the effects of private and mixed public-private systems versus public provision. However, alternative forms of provision such as cooperatives, which can be very prevalent in many developing countries, have been completely ignored. In this paper, we investigate the effects of communal water provison (Comités Vecinales and Juntas Administrativas de Servicios de Saneamiento) on child health in Peru. Using detailed survey data at the household- and child-level for the years 2006-2010, we exploit the cross-section variability to assess the differential impact of this form of provision. Despite controlling for a wide range of household and local characteristics, the municipalities served by communal organizations are more likely to have poorer health indicators, what would result in a downward bias on the absolute magnitude of the effect of cooperatives. We rely on an instrumental variable strategy to deal with this potential endogeneity problem, and use the personnel resources and the administrative urban/rural classi fication of the municipalities as instruments for the provision type. The results show a negative and signi cant effect of comunal water provision on diarrhea among under- five year old children. Keywords: water utilities, cooperatives, child health, regulation, Peru. JEL Classi fication Numbers: L33; L50; L95

Measuring the child mortality impact of official aid for fighting infectious diseases, 2000-2010

Aid for fighting infectious and parasitic diseases has had a statistically significant role in the under-five mortality reduction in the last decade. Point estimates indicate a country average reduction of 1.4 deaths per thousand under fives live-born attributable to aid at its average level in 2000-2010. The effect would be an average drop of 3.3 in the under-five mortality rate at the aid levels of 2010. By components, a dollar per capita spent in fighting malaria has caused the largest average impact, statistically higher than a dollar per capita spent in STD/HIV control. We do not find statistically significant effects of other infectious disease aid, including aid for the control of tuberculosis.

Social Determinants of Child Health in Colombia: Can Community Education Moderate the Effect of Family Characteristics?

Contextual effects on child health have been investigated extensively in previous research. However, few studies have considered the interplay between community characteristics and individual-level variables. This study examines the influence of community education and family socioeconomic characteristics on child health (as measured by height and weight-for-age Z-scores), as well as their interactions. We adapted the Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH) framework to the context of child health. Using data from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), weighted multilevel models are fitted since the data are not self-weighting. The results show a positive impact of the level of education of other women in the community on child health, even after controlling for individual and family socioeconomic characteristics. Different pathways through which community education can substitute for the effect of family characteristics on child nutrition are found. The interaction terms highlight the importance of community education as a moderator of the impact of the mother’s own education and autonomy, on child health. In addition, the results reveal differences between height and weight-for-age indicators in their responsiveness to individual and contextual factors. Our findings suggest that community intervention programmes may have differential effects on child health. Therefore, their identification can contribute to a better targeting of child care policies.

Productivities, preferences, and parental child care

We study the interplay of preferences and market productivities on parenting, and show the preferences, when identified, provide a better explanation of caring decisions than has, so far, been demonstrated in the literature. We qualify the standard finding the parental education in a key determinant of care by showing important interaction effects with marital homogamy. We find that homogamy has opposite effects on child care and couple specialization for high and low educated parents. Identification has been made possible by a unique couple-based time diary study for Denmark

Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in Spain

In this paper I explore two hypotheses: (1) Formal child care availability for children under three has a positive effect across contexts, according to the degree of adaptation of social institutions to changes in gender roles. Event history models with regional fixed effects are applied to data from the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001). The results show a significant and positive effect of regional day care availability on both, first and higher order births, while results are consistent with the second hypothesis only for second or higher order births.

Explaining parental dedication to child care in Spain

The quality of the time dedicated to child care has potential positive effects on children’s life chances. However, the determinants of parental time allocation to child care remain largely unexplored, particularly in context undergoing rapid family change such as Spain. We assess two alternative explanations for differences between parents in the amount of time spent with children. The first, based in the relative resources hypothesis, links variation in time spent with children to the relative attributes (occupation, education or income) of one partner to the other. The second, derived from the social status hypothesis, suggests that variation in time spent with children is attributable to the relative social position of the pair (i.e. higher status couples spend more time with children regardless of within-couple difference).To investigate theses questions, we use a sample of adults (18-50) from the Spanish Time Use Survey (STUS) 2002-2003 (n=7,438). Limiting the analysis to adults who are married or in consensual unions, the STUS allows to assess both the quantity and quality of parental time spent with children. We find little support for the “relative resources hypothesis”. Instead, consistent with the “social status hypothesis”, we find that time spent on child care is attributable to the social position of the couple, regardless of between-parent differences in income of education.

The effects of a universal child benefit

I study the impact of a universal child benefit on fertility and family well-being. I exploitthe unanticipated introduction of a new, sizeable, unconditional child benefit in Spain in2007, granted to all mothers giving birth on or after July 1, 2007. The regressiondiscontinuity-type design allows for a credible identification of the causal effects. I find thatthe benefit did lead to a significant increase in fertility, as intended, part of it coming froman immediate reduction in abortions. On the unintended side, I find that families whoreceived the benefit did not increase their overall expenditure or their consumption ofdirectly child-related goods and services. Instead, eligible mothers stayed out of the laborforce significantly longer after giving birth, which in turn led to their children spending lesstime in formal child care and more time with their mother during their first year of life. Ialso find that couples who received the benefit were less likely to break up the year afterhaving the child, although this effect was only short-term. Taken together, the resultssuggest that child benefits of this kind may successfully increase fertility, as well asaffecting family well-being through their impact on maternal time at home and familystability.

The determinants of the prevalence of single mothers: A cross-country analysis

This paper examines the effect of public assistance, labor market and marriage marketconditions on the prevalence of single mother families across countries and over time. Amultinomial logit derived from a random utility approach is estimated using individualleveldata for 14 countries. I find evidence that increases in the level of public support are significantly and positively associated with a higher incidence of both never marriedand divorced mothers. The results also suggest that single mothers are more prevalentwhen female wages are lower. Higher male earnings and employment opportunities in awoman s marriage market appear to lead to fewer never married mothers, but more divorced mothers. Higher child support or alimony payments are associated with a higher prevalence of divorced mothers.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.

Genetic variants of the FADS gene cluster and ELOVL gene family, colostrums LC-PUFA levels, breastfeeding, and child cognition

Introduction: Breastfeeding effects on cognition are attributed to long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFAs), but controversy persists. Genetic variation in fatty acid desaturase (FADS) and elongase (ELOVL) enzymes has been overlooked when studying the effects of LC-PUFAs supply on cognition. We aimed to: 1) to determine whether maternal genetic variants in the FADS cluster and ELOVL genes contribute to differences in LC-PUFA levels in colostrum; 2) to analyze whether these maternal variants are related to child cognition; and 3) to assess whether children's variants modify breastfeeding effects on cognition. Methods: Data come from two population-based birth cohorts (n = 400 mother-child pairs from INMA-Sabadell; and n = 340 children from INMA-Menorca). LC-PUFAs were measured in 270 colostrum samples from INMA-Sabadell. Tag SNPs were genotyped both in mothers and children (13 in the FADS cluster, 6 in ELOVL2, and 7 in ELOVL5). Child cognition was assessed at 14 mo and 4 y using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development and the McCarthy Scales of Children"s Abilities, respectively. Results: Children of mothers carrying genetic variants associated with lower FADS1 activity (regulating AA and EPA synthesis), higher FADS2 activity (regulating DHA synthesis), and with higher EPA/AA and DHA/AA ratios in colostrum showed a significant advantage in cognition at 14 mo (3.5 to 5.3 points). Not being breastfed conferred an 8- to 9-point disadvantage in cognition among children GG homozygote for rs174468 (low FADS1 activity) but not among those with the A allele. Moreover, not being breastfed resulted in a disadvantage in cognition (5 to 8 points) among children CC homozygote for rs2397142 (low ELOVL5 activity), but not among those carrying the G allele. Conclusion: Genetically determined maternal supplies of LC-PUFAs during pregnancy and lactation appear to be crucial for child cognition. Breastfeeding effects on cognition are modified by child genetic variation in fatty acid desaturase and elongase enzymes.

Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

The prevalence of child sexual abuse in community and student samples: A meta-analysis

Background: Studies conducted internationally confirm that child sexual abuse is a much more widespread problem than previously thought, with even the lowest prevalence rates including a large number of victims that need to be taken into account. Objective: To carry out a meta-analysis of the prevalence of child sexual abuse in order to establish an overall international figure. Methods: Studies were retrieved from various electronic databases. The measure of interest was the prevalence of abuse reported in each article, these values being combined via a random effects model. A detailed analysis was conducted of the effects of various moderator variables. Results: Sixty-five articles covering 22 countries were included. The analysis showed that 7.9% of men (7.4% without outliers) and 19.7% of women (19.2% without outliers) had suffered some form of sexual abuse prior to the age of eighteen. Conclusions: The results of the present meta-analysis indicate that child sexual abuse is a serious problem in the countries analysed.