The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-deposit-Ratio approach

Based on the Ahumada et al. (2007, Review of Income and Wealth) critique we revise existing estimates of the size of the German underground economy. Among other things, it turns out that most of these estimates are untenable and that the tax pressure induced size of the German underground economy may be much lower than previously thought. To this extent, German policy and law makers have been misguided during the last three decades. Therefore, we introduce the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio (MCDR) approach, which is not subject to the recent critique and apply it to Germany for the period 1960 to 2008. JEL: O17, Q41, C22, Keywords: underground economy, shadow economy, cash-depositratio, currency demand approach, MIMIC approach

Market rewards to patterns on increasing earnings: do cash flow patterns, accruals manipulation and real activities manipulation matter?

This study explores whether firms have differential price-earnings multiples associated with their means of achieving a sequential pattern of increasing positive earnings. Our main findings show that market participants assign higher price-earnings multiples to firms when their pattern of increasing earnings is supported by the same pattern of increasing cash flows. Market participants assign lower price-earnings multiples to firms suspect of having engaged in accrual-based earnings management, sales manipulation, and overproduction to achieve the earnings pattern. We find, however, that market participants do not penalize firms suspect of having achieved the earnings pattern through the opportunistic reduction of discretionary expenses.

On the valuation and incentive effects of executive cash bonus contracts

Executive compensation packages are often valued in an inconsistent manner: while employee stock options (ESOs) are typically valued ex-ante, cash bonuses are valued ex-post. This renders the existing valuation models of employee compensation packages theoretically unsatisfactory and, potentially, empirically distortive. In this paper, we propose an option-based framework for ex-ante valuation of cash bonus contracts. After obtaining closed-form expressions for ex-ante values of several frequently used types of bonus contracts, we utilize them to explore the e¤ects that the shape of a bonus contract has on the executive s attitude toward risk-taking. We, also, study pay-performance sensitivity of such contracts. We show that the terms of a bonus contract can dramatically impact both risk-taking behavior as well as pay-performance incentives. Several testable predictions are made, and venues of future research outlined.

The variability of money velocity in a generalized cash-in-advance model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand wherethe velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant and equal to one as in cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). Despite its simplicity, in terms of paramaters to calibrate, the model performs surprisingly well. In particular, it approximates the variability of money velocity observed in the U.S. for the post-war period. The model is then used to analyze the welfare costs of inflation under uncertainty. This application calculates the errors derived from computing the costs of inflation with deterministic models. It turns out that the size of this difference is small, at least for the levels of uncertainty estimated for the U.S. economy.

Stable sunspot equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy

We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-inadvance constraints and seigniorage-financed government deficits. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is greater than one, there are two steady states, one determinate and the other indeterminate. If the elasticity is less than one, there is a unique steady state, which can be indeterminate. Only in the latter case do there exist sunspot equilibria that are stable under adaptive learning. A sufficient reduction in government purchases can in many cases eliminate the sunspot equilibria while raising consumption/labor taxes even enough to balance the budget may fail to achieve determinacy.

On the identification of monetary (and other) shocks

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we construct a DSGE model which spells out explicitly the instrumentation of monetary policy. The interest rate is determined every period depending on the supply and demand for reserves which in turn are affected by fundamental shocks: unforeseeable changes in cash withdrawal, autonomous factors, technology and government spending. Unexpected changes in the monetary conditions of the economy are interpreted as monetary shocks. We show that these monetary shocks have the usual effects on economic activity without the need of imposing additional frictions as limited participation in asset markets or sticky prices. Second, we show that this view of monetary policy may have important consequences for empirical research. In the model, the contemporaneous correlations between interest rates, prices and output are due to the simultaneous effect of all fundamental shocks. We provide an example where these contemporaneous correlations may be misinterpreted as a Taylor rule. In addition, we use the sign of the impact responses of all shocks on output, prices and interest rates derived from the model to identify the sources of shocks in the data.

The behavior of money velocity in low and high inflation countries

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand where the velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant as in standard cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). The model provides an explanation of why, for a sample of 79 countries, the correlation between the velocity of money and the inflation rate appears to be low, unlike common wisdom would suggest. The reason is the diverse transaction technologies available in different economies.

Venture capital meets contract theory: risky claims or formal control?

This paper develops a theory of the joint allocation of formal control and cash-flow rights in venture capital deals. We argue that when the need for investor support calls for very high-powered outside claims, entrepreneurs should optimally retain formal control in order to avoid excessive interference. Hence, we predict that risky claims should be be negatively correlated to control rights, both along the life of a start-up and across deals. This challenges the idea that risky claims should a ways be associated to more formal control, and is in line with contractual terms increasingly used in venture capital, in corporate venturing and in partnership deals between biotech start-ups and large drug companies. The paper provides a theoretical explanation to some puzzling evidence documented in Gompers (1997) and Kaplan and Stromberg (2000), namely the inclusion in venture capital contracts of contingencies that trigger both a reduction in VC control and the conversion! of her preferred stocks into common stocks.

Comparison of recent toll road concession transactions in the United States and France

Recent concessions in France and in the US have resulted in a dramatic difference in the valuation placed on the toll roads; the price paid by the investors in France was twelve times current cash flow whereas investors paid sixty times current cash flow for the U.S. toll roads. In this paper we explore two questions: What accounts for the difference in these multiples, and what are the implications with respect to the public interest. Our analysis illustrates how structural and procedural decisions made by the public owner affect the concession price. Further, the terms of the concession have direct consequences that are enjoyed or borne by the various stakeholders of the toll road.

Small firms, growth and financial constraints

This paper analyses the impact of different sources of finance on the growth of firms. Using panel data from Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 2000-2006, we investigate the effects of internal and external finances on firm growth. In particular, we examine three dimensions of these financial sources: a) the performance of the firms’ capital structure in accordance with firm size; b) the effects of internal and external financial sources on growth performance; c) the combined effect of equity, external debt and cash flow on firm growth. We find that low-growth firms are sensitive to cash flow and short-term bank debt, while high-growth firms are more sensitive to long-term debt. Furthermore, equity capital seems to reduce barriers to external finance. Our main conclusion is that during the start-up phase, firms are unable to increase their financial leverage and so their capital structure fails to promote correct investment strategies. However, as their equity capital increases, alternative financial mechanisms, in particular long-term debt, become available, which have a positive impact on firm growth.

Are small firms more sensitive to financial variables?

This paper analyses the impact of different sources of finance on the growth of firms. sing panel data from Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 2000-2006, we investigate the effects of internal and external finances on firm growth. In particular, we examine wo dimensions of these financial sources: a) the performance of the firms' capital structure n accordance with firm size; b) the combined effect of equity, external debt and cash low n firm growth. We find that low-growth firms are sensitive to cash low and short-term ank debt, while high-growth firms are more sensitive to long-term debt. Furthermore, ur results show that low-growth firms are more sensitive to short-term financial variables, hile fast growth firms are more sensitive to long-term financial variables. EL codes: L25, R12. eywords: Finance, Firm growth, Quantile regressions, Small firms

Disseny i implementació d'un Videoclub online amb J2EE i una llibreria de tags de suport per la capa de presentació

Disseny i implementació parcial d'un Videoclub online en J2EE. Es fa ús dels patrons de disseny i frameworks més adients les diferents capes de l'arquitectura justificant la seva elecció. Així mateix, es desenvolupa una llibreria de tags pròpia, que dóna suport en el desenvolupament de les vistes d'un model de negoci d'aquest tipus.

Experiències catalanes, angleses i irlandeses en el millorament de l’accès a l’habitatge

El Grup de Recerca d´Accés a l´Habitatge de la Universitat Rovira i Virgili ha portat a terme durant l´any 2011 una sèrie d´activitats gràcies a l´ajuda concedida per la convocatòria de l´AGAUR PBR-DGR 2010, que ha donat suport al Grup tant de forma directa (per exemple, en viatges i dietes) com indirecta (gràcies a l´ajuda prestada per la Sra. Helaine Cristina Madeira Santos, becària de suport al Grup de Recerca, que ha portat a terme tasques de coordinació i investigació). Així, el Grup ha portat a terme tasques d´investigació (per exemple, la signatura d´un Conveni amb l’Agència de l’Habitatge de Catalunya amb la finalitat de portar a terme en el termini de 3 anys l’elaboració d´un marc legislatiu sobre les tinences intermitges en el Dret català); tasques de formació (gràcies a la participació en Congressos i Jornades); esta coordinant una xarxa sobre grups d´habitatge (per exemple, mitjançant un Congrés internacional sobre habitatge celebrat a Granada); ha publicat llibres i articles científics (per exemple, la publicació dels treballs presentats en les III Jornades Internacionals de Housing de 2010); i finalment cal destacar que l´activitat del Grup ha tingut un gran impacte en els mitjans de comunicació. Tot aquest treball ha permès al Grup arribar a unes conclusions sobre el status quo de l´habitatge a Espanya, per exemple les mancances del mercat d´habitatge en propietat i en lloguer i els aspectes que cal reformar quant al règim tributari i processal d´aquestes formes de tinença immobiliària. La principal conclusió, però, és la necessitat de regular noves formes d´entendre la tinença de la terra tot seguint els models ja presents en altres països europeus (principalment, Anglaterra i Irlanda), com la propietat compartida i la propietat temporal, figures en les quals està aprofundint actualment el Grup de recerca.

Women's employment and the adult caring burden

Demographic ageing is increasing pensions, health and social services spending and threatening the future balance of public budgets. Providing home care can help to curb health expenditure and it may improve elderly welfare also, but EU states have chosen different policies in providing home are. Main differences are related with source of financing and eligibility criteria but also with the kind of benefits (benefits in cash or in kind). How these different options affect welfare and carers’ employment opportunities is the core of this research. Home care growth is going to be more efficient as far as it pro motes employment and, public revenues consequently. Using microdata from the European Community Household Panel, British and Spanish means tested programs are compared with German and Austrian ‘in cash’ benefits, and with Danish ‘in kind’ benefits also. The results show that Danish policies are the most efficient and equitable while the British and Spanish ones are the worst.