El Riesgo y las estrategias en la evaluación de los fondos de inversión de renta variable

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer una medida de performance adecuada para los fondos de inversión de renta variable. Las características específicas de este tipo de carteras inducen a tomar un enfoque basado en la L.M.C., por lo que se escoge como medida de riesgo el riesgo total de la cartera (pσ). Se introducen las estrategias pasivas y activas en el análisis, con lo que se consigue desarrollar una medida de performance que, además de medir la rentabilidad por gestión efectiva, la pondera en función del grado de actividad asumido por la cartera a evaluar.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Since conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. Monte Carlo results show that the estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators that have been proposed for estimation of general DLV models.

Experimental investigation of transient natural convection cooling of high prandtl number fluid with variable viscosity

Report for the scientific sojourn at the James Cook University, Australia, between June to December 2007. Free convection in enclosed spaces is found widely in natural and industrial systems. It is a topic of primary interest because in many systems it provides the largest resistance to the heat transfer in comparison with other heat transfer modes. In such systems the convection is driven by a density gradient within the fluid, which, usually, is produced by a temperature difference between the fluid and surrounding walls. In the oil industry, the oil, which has High Prandtl, usually is stored and transported in large tanks at temperatures high enough to keep its viscosity and, thus the pumping requirements, to a reasonable level. A temperature difference between the fluid and the walls of the container may give rise to the unsteady buoyancy force and hence the unsteady natural convection. In the initial period of cooling the natural convection regime dominates over the conduction contribution. As the oil cools down it typically becomes more viscous and this increase of viscosity inhibits the convection. At this point the oil viscosity becomes very large and unloading of the tank becomes very difficult. For this reason it is of primary interest to be able to predict the cooling rate of the oil. The general objective of this work is to develop and validate a simulation tool able to predict the cooling rates of high Prandtl fluid considering the variable viscosity effects.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Exponentially small splitting of separatrices in the perturbed McMillan map

The McMillan map is a one-parameter family of integrable symplectic maps of the plane, for which the origin is a hyperbolic fixed point with a homoclinic loop, with small Lyapunov exponent when the parameter is small. We consider a perturbation of the McMillan map for which we show that the loop breaks in two invariant curves which are exponentially close one to the other and which intersect transversely along two primary homoclinic orbits. We compute the asymptotic expansion of several quantities related to the splitting, namely the Lazutkin invariant and the area of the lobe between two consecutive primary homoclinic points. Complex matching techniques are in the core of this work. The coefficients involved in the expansion have a resurgent origin, as shown in [MSS08].

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4

The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied. We find the following. (1) The claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile. (2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be rather adaptive than rational price setting of local firms.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Genomics of wine yeast: functional analysis of new and variable genes

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a l’Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, França, entre 2007 i 2009. Saccharomyces cerevisiae ha estat el llevat utilitzat durant mil.lenis en l'elaboració de vins. Tot i així, es té poc coneixement sobre les pressions de selecció que han actuat en la modelització del genoma dels llevats vínics. S’ha seqüenciat el genoma d'una soca vínica comercial, EC1118, obtenint 31 supercontigs que cobreixen el 97% del genoma de la soca de referència, S288c. S’ha trobat que el genoma de la soca vínica es diferencia bàsicament en la possessió de 3 regions úniques que contenen 34 gens implicats en funcions claus per al procés fermentatiu. A banda, s’han dut a terme estudis de filogènia i synteny (ordre dels gens) que mostren que una d'aquestes tres regions és pròxima a una espècie relacionada amb el gènere Saccharomyces, mentre que les altres dos regions tenen un origen no-Saccharomyces. S’ha identificat mitjançant PCR i seqüenciació a Zygosaccharomyces bailii, una espècie contaminant de les fermentacions víniques, com a espècie donadora d'una de les dues regions. Les hibridacions naturals entre soques de diferents espècies dins del grup Saccharomyces sensu stricto ja han estat descrites. El treball és el primer que presenta hibridacions entre espècies Saccharomyces i no-Saccharomyces (Z. bailii, en aquest cas). També s’assenyala que les noves regions es troben freqüent i diferencialment presents entre els clades de S. cerevisiae, trobant-se de manera gairebé exclusiva en el grup de les soques víniques, suggerint que es tracta d'una adquisició recent de transferència gènica. En general, les dades demostren que el genoma de les soques víniques pateix una constant remodelació mitjançant l'adquisició de gens exògens. Els resultats suggereixen que aquests processos estan afavorits per la proximitat ecològica i estan implicats en l'adaptació molecular de les soques víniques a les condicions d'elevada concentració en sucres, poc nitrogen i elevades concentracions en etanol.

Normal forms, stability and splitting of invariant manifolds I. Gevrey Hamiltonians

In this paper, we give a new construction of resonant normal forms with a small remainder for near-integrable Hamiltonians at a quasi-periodic frequency. The construction is based on the special case of a periodic frequency, a Diophantine result concerning the approximation of a vector by independent periodic vectors and a technique of composition of periodic averaging. It enables us to deal with non-analytic Hamiltonians, and in this first part we will focus on Gevrey Hamiltonians and derive normal forms with an exponentially small remainder. This extends a result which was known for analytic Hamiltonians, and only in the periodic case for Gevrey Hamiltonians. As applications, we obtain an exponentially large upper bound on the stability time for the evolution of the action variables and an exponentially small upper bound on the splitting of invariant manifolds for hyperbolic tori, generalizing corresponding results for analytic Hamiltonians.

Normal forms, stability and splitting of invariant manifolds II. Finitely differentiable Hamiltonians

This paper is a sequel to ``Normal forms, stability and splitting of invariant manifolds I. Gevrey Hamiltonians", in which we gave a new construction of resonant normal forms with an exponentially small remainder for near-integrable Gevrey Hamiltonians at a quasi-periodic frequency, using a method of periodic approximations. In this second part we focus on finitely differentiable Hamiltonians, and we derive normal forms with a polynomially small remainder. As applications, we obtain a polynomially large upper bound on the stability time for the evolution of the action variables and a polynomially small upper bound on the splitting of invariant manifolds for hyperbolic tori.

Splitting statistical potentials into meaningful scoring functions: testing the prediction of near-native structures from decoy conformations

Background: Recent advances on high-throughput technologies have produced a vast amount of protein sequences, while the number of high-resolution structures has seen a limited increase. This has impelled the production of many strategies to built protein structures from its sequence, generating a considerable amount of alternative models. The selection of the closest model to the native conformation has thus become crucial for structure prediction. Several methods have been developed to score protein models by energies, knowledge-based potentials and combination of both.Results: Here, we present and demonstrate a theory to split the knowledge-based potentials in scoring terms biologically meaningful and to combine them in new scores to predict near-native structures. Our strategy allows circumventing the problem of defining the reference state. In this approach we give the proof for a simple and linear application that can be further improved by optimizing the combination of Zscores. Using the simplest composite score () we obtained predictions similar to state-of-the-art methods. Besides, our approach has the advantage of identifying the most relevant terms involved in the stability of the protein structure. Finally, we also use the composite Zscores to assess the conformation of models and to detect local errors.Conclusion: We have introduced a method to split knowledge-based potentials and to solve the problem of defining a reference state. The new scores have detected near-native structures as accurately as state-of-art methods and have been successful to identify wrongly modeled regions of many near-native conformations.

Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Lyfe-cycle effects on household expenditures: A latent-variable approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life-cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.