Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Évaluation des Conférences ministérielles euro-méditerranéennes de Valence, Crète, Naples et Dublin

La Conférence inaugurale de Barcelone a marqué, en novembre 1995, le début d'un long processus de rapprochement et de solidarité entre 27 partenaires (35 pays depuis le 1er mai 2004 et 37 à moyen terme). Cette initiative est censée revêtir un caractère permanent et évolutif sous l'angle institutionnel. De par sa dimension stratégique, le Processus de Barcelone, ci-après Processus, constitue l'instrument le plus important et le plus concret pour le dialogue et la coopération entre l'Union européenne (UE), ses Etats membres et les partenaires méditerranéens2. Pour être efficace, et pas uniquement rhétorique ou virtuel, le Partenariat euro-méditerranéen, ci-après Partenariat, doit se bâtir sur des valeurs universelles, capables de garantir un minimum de cohérence et de crédibilité à un projet extrêmement complexe, fragile et, par sa propre nature, constamment menacé de paralysie. En effet, il n'est pas toujours aisé de faire prévaloir des actions à caractère centripète aux tentations et tendances centrifuges qui caractérisent la région. Les changements et les événements exceptionnels survenus récemment, tant dans le domaine international qu'au sein de l'Union, ont rendu nécessaires l'approfondissement et le renforcement institutionnel des relations euro-méditerranéennes. Le Processus est appelé à se consolider d'urgence, pour être compris et accepté par une opinion publique de plus en plus sceptique et déconcertée par l'actualité internationale. La récente création de l'Assemblée parlementaire euro-méditerranéenne (APEM) - qui sera dotée de trois commissions permanentes3 - et la constitution prochaine à Alexandrie de la Fondation Euromed pour le dialogue entre les cultures et les civilisations, représentent des réponses logiques et encourageantes à cet état d'esprit plus ou moins généralisé

Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted, the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.

The network origins of aggregate fluctuations

This paper argues that in the presence of intersectoral input-output linkages, microeconomicidiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. In particular, itshows that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregatevolatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages.Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importanceof different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers as well as theirrole as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher-order interconnectionscapture the possibility of "cascade effects" whereby productivity shocks to asector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also indirectlyto the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility isobtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetryin the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the "sparseness" of theinput-output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.

Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade

This paper analyzes the flow of intermediate inputs across sectors by adopting a network perspective on sectoral interactions. I apply these tools to show how fluctuationsin aggregate economic activity can be obtained from independent shocks to individualsectors. First, I characterize the network structure of input trade in the U.S. On thedemand side, a typical sector relies on a small number of key inputs and sectors arehomogeneous in this respect. However, in their role as input-suppliers sectors do differ:many specialized input suppliers coexist alongside general purpose sectors functioningas hubs to the economy. I then develop a model of intersectoral linkages that can reproduce these connectivity features. In a standard multisector setup, I use this modelto provide analytical expressions linking aggregate volatility to the network structureof input trade. I show that the presence of sectoral hubs - by coupling productiondecisions across sectors - leads to fluctuations in aggregates.

ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering theWest, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of theMediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980.Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence coexist are local and transitory. The cyclicaloutlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

Embodied technical change and the fluctuations of wages and unemployment

The paper shows that a matching model where technological change is partially embodied in the job match is successful in explaining the variability of unemployment and vacancies. If we incorporate long-term wage contracts into the model, it also explains a number of stylized facts on the dynamics of real wages, which have been found in the empirical labor literature.

Organizational capital and employment fluctuations

In this paper I present a model in which production requires two types of labor inputs: regular productive tasks and organizational capital, which is accumulated by workers performing organizational tasks. By allocating more workers from organizational to productive tasks, firms can temporarily increase production without hiring. The availability of this intensive margin of labor adjustment, in combination with adjustment costs along the extensive margin (search frictions, firing costs, training costs), makes it optimal to delay employment adjustments. Simulations indicate that this mechanism is quantitatively important even if only a small fraction of workers perform organizational tasks, and explains why the hiring rate is persistent and why employment is slow to recover after the end of a recession.

Markups, gaps and the welfare costs of business fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted,the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.

Modifications in the Si valence band after ion-beam-induced oxidation

The changes undergone by the Si surface after oxygen bombardment have special interest for acquiring a good understanding of the Si+-ion emission during secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) analysis. For this reason a detailed investigation on the stoichiometry of the builtup surface oxides has been carried out using in situ x-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS). The XPS analysis of the Si 2p core level indicates a strong presence of suboxide chemical states when bombarding at angles of incidence larger than 30°. In this work a special emphasis on the analysis and interpretation of the valence band region was made. Since the surface stoichiometry or degree of oxidation varies with the angle of incidence, the respective valence band structures also differ. A comparison with experimentally measured and theoretically derived Si valence band and SiO2 valence band suggests that the new valence bands are formed by a combination of these two. This arises from the fact that Si¿Si bonds are present on the Si¿suboxide molecules, and therefore the corresponding 3p-3p Si-like subband, which extends towards the Si Fermi level, forms the top of the respective new valence bands. Small variations in intensity and energy position for this subband have drastic implications on the intensity of the Si+-ion emission during sputtering in SIMS measurements. A model combining chemically enhanced emission and resonant tunneling effects is suggested for the variations observed in ion emission during O+2 bombardment for Si targets.

Fluctuations in domain growth: Ginzburg-Landau equations with multiplicative noise

Ginzburg-Landau equations with multiplicative noise are considered, to study the effects of fluctuations in domain growth. The equations are derived from a coarse-grained methodology and expressions for the resulting concentration-dependent diffusion coefficients are proposed. The multiplicative noise gives contributions to the Cahn-Hilliard linear-stability analysis. In particular, it introduces a delay in the domain-growth dynamics.