Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

The first SEPServer event catalogue 68-MeV solar proton events observed at 1 AU in 1996-2010

SEPServer is a three-year collaborative project funded by the seventh framework programme (FP7-SPACE) of the European Union. The objective of the project is to provide access to state-of-the-art observations and analysis tools for the scientific community on solar energetic particle (SEP) events and related electromagnetic (EM) emissions. The project will eventually lead to better understanding of the particle acceleration and transport processes at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere. These processes lead to SEP events that form one of the key elements of space weather. In this paper we present the first results from the systematic analysis work performed on the following datasets: SOHO/ERNE, SOHO/EPHIN, ACE/EPAM, Wind/WAVES and GOES X-rays. A catalogue of SEP events at 1 AU, with complete coverage over solar cycle 23, based on high-energy (~68-MeV) protons from SOHO/ERNE and electron recordings of the events by SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM are presented. A total of 115 energetic particle events have been identified and analysed using velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) for protons and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for electrons and protons in order to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. EM observations during the times of the SEP event onset have been gathered and compared to the release time estimates of particles. Data from those events that occurred during the European day-time, i.e., those that also have observations from ground-based observatories included in SEPServer, are listed and a preliminary analysis of their associations is presented. We find that VDA results for protons can be a useful tool for the analysis of proton release times, but if the derived proton path length is out of a range of 1 AU < s[3 AU, the result of the analysis may be compromised, as indicated by the anti-correlation of the derived path length and release time delay from the asso ciated X-ray flare. The average path length derived from VDA is about 1.9 times the nominal length of the spiral magnetic field line. This implies that the path length of first-arriving MeV to deka-MeV protons is affected by interplanetary scattering. TSA of near-relativistic electrons results in a release time that shows significant scatter with respect to the EM emissions but with a trend of being delayed more with increasing distance between the flare and the nominal footpoint of the Earth-connected field line.

A Database of >20 keV Electron Green's Functions of Interplanetary Transport at 1 AU

We use interplanetary transport simulations to compute a database of electron Green's functions, i.e., differential intensities resulting at the spacecraft position from an impulsive injection of energetic (>20 keV) electrons close to the Sun, for a large number of values of two standard interplanetary transport parameters: the scattering mean free path and the solar wind speed. The nominal energy channels of the ACE, STEREO, and Wind spacecraft have been used in the interplanetary transport simulations to conceive a unique tool for the study of near-relativistic electron events observed at 1 AU. In this paper, we quantify the characteristic times of the Green's functions (onset and peak time, rise and decay phase duration) as a function of the interplanetary transport conditions. We use the database to calculate the FWHM of the pitch-angle distributions at different times of the event and under different scattering conditions. This allows us to provide a first quantitative result that can be compared with observations, and to assess the validity of the frequently used term beam-like pitch-angle distribution.

Current Sheet Regulation of Solar Near-relativistic Electron Injection Histories

We present a sample of three large near-relativistic (>50 keV) electron events observed in 2001 by both the ACE and the Ulysses spacecraft, when Ulysses was at high-northern latitudes (>60◦) and close to 2 AU. Despite the large latitudinal distance between the two spacecraft, electrons injected near the Sun reached both heliospheric locations. All three events were associated with large solar flares, strong decametric type II radio bursts and accompanied by wide (>212◦) and fast (>1400 km s−1) coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We use advanced interplanetary transport simulations and make use of the directional intensities observed in situ by the spacecraft to infer the electron injection profile close to the Sun and the interplanetary transport conditions at both low and high latitudes. For the three selected events, we find similar interplanetary transport conditions at different heliolatitudes for a given event, with values of the mean free path ranging from 0.04 AU to 0.27 AU. We find differences in the injection profiles inferred for each spacecraft. We investigate the role that sector boundaries of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) have on determining the characteristics of the electron injection profiles. Extended injection profiles, associated with coronal shocks, are found if the magnetic footpoints of the spacecraft lay in the same magnetic sector as the associated flare, while intermittent sparse injection episodes appear when the spacecraft footpoints are in the opposite sector or a wrap in the HCS bounded the CME structure.

Current Sheet Regulation of Solar Near-Relativistic Electron Injection Histories

We present a sample of three large near-relativistic (>50 keV) electron events observed in 2001 by both the ACE and the Ulysses spacecraft, when Ulysses was at high-northern latitudes (>60°) and close to 2 AU. Despite the large latitudinal distance between the two spacecraft, electrons injected near the Sun reached both heliospheric locations. All three events were associated with large solar flares, strong decametric type II radio bursts and accompanied by wide (>212°) and fast (>1400 km s-1) coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We use advanced interplanetary transport simulations and make use of the directional intensities observed in situ by the spacecraft to infer the electron injection profile close to the Sun and the interplanetary transport conditions at both low and high latitudes. For the three selected events, we find similar interplanetary transport conditions at different heliolatitudes for a given event, with values of the mean free path ranging from 0.04 AU to 0.27 AU. We find differences in the injection profiles inferred for each spacecraft. We investigate the role that sector boundaries of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) have on determining the characteristics of the electron injection profiles. Extended injection profiles, associated with coronal shocks, are found if the magnetic footpoints of the spacecraft lay in the same magnetic sector as the associated flare, while intermittent sparse injection episodes appear when the spacecraft footpoints are in the opposite sector or a wrap in the HCS bounded the CME structure.