80 resultados para Uncertainty with Respect to the Future
em Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya (CSUC), Spain
Resumo:
The liquid-liquid critical point scenario of water hypothesizes the existence of two metastable liq- uid phases low-density liquid (LDL) and high-density liquid (HDL) deep within the supercooled region. The hypothesis originates from computer simulations of the ST2 water model, but the stabil- ity of the LDL phase with respect to the crystal is still being debated. We simulate supercooled ST2 water at constant pressure, constant temperature, and constant number of molecules N for N ≤ 729 and times up to 1 μs. We observe clear differences between the two liquids, both structural and dynamical. Using several methods, including finite-size scaling, we confirm the presence of a liquid-liquid phase transition ending in a critical point. We find that the LDL is stable with respect to the crystal in 98% of our runs (we perform 372 runs for LDL or LDL-like states), and in 100% of our runs for the two largest system sizes (N = 512 and 729, for which we perform 136 runs for LDL or LDL-like states). In all these runs, tiny crystallites grow and then melt within 1 μs. Only for N ≤ 343 we observe six events (over 236 runs for LDL or LDL-like states) of spontaneous crystal- lization after crystallites reach an estimated critical size of about 70 ± 10 molecules.
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This paper presents a case study that explores the advantages that can be derived from the use of a design support system during the design of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). With this objective in mind a simplified but plausible WWTP design case study has been generated with KBDS, a computer-based support system that maintains a historical record of the design process. The study shows how, by employing such a historical record, it is possible to: (1) rank different design proposals responding to a design problem; (2) study the influence of changing the weight of the arguments used in the selection of the most adequate proposal; (3) take advantage of keywords to assist the designer in the search of specific items within the historical records; (4) evaluate automatically thecompliance of alternative design proposals with respect to the design objectives; (5) verify the validity of previous decisions after the modification of the current constraints or specifications; (6) re-use the design records when upgrading an existing WWTP or when designing similar facilities; (7) generate documentation of the decision making process; and (8) associate a variety of documents as annotations to any component in the design history. The paper also shows one possible future role of design support systems as they outgrow their current reactive role as repositories of historical information and start to proactively support the generation of new knowledge during the design process
Resumo:
A comment about the article “Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling” writen by L. Loosvelt and co-authors. The present comment is centered in three specific points. The first one is related to the fact that the authors avoid the use of ilr-coordinates. The second one refers to some generalization of sensitivity analysis when input parameters are compositional. The third tries to show that the role of the Dirichlet distribution in the sensitivity analysis is irrelevant
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We propose a classification and derive the associated normal forms for rational difference equations with complex coefficients. As an application, we study the global periodicity problem for second order rational difference equations with complex coefficients. We find new necessary conditions as well as some new examples of globally periodic equations.
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In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).
Resumo:
We communicate a detailed study of the epitaxial growth of CeO2 on MgO. The key feature of the growth is the dependence of the in¿plane orientation of the CeO2 epitaxial layer on the MgO surface morphology. Atomic force microscopic (AFM) measurements, x¿ray analyses, as well as high¿resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) investigations reveal that on rough substrates a cube¿on¿cube growth of CeO2 on MgO occurs while on smooth substrates the CeO2 unit cell is rotated around the surface normal by 45° with respect to the MgO unit cell when the deposition rate is low (~0.3 Å/s) during the first stages of growth. This growth mechanism can be used for a defined fabrication of 45° grain boundaries in the CeO2 layer by controlling the surface roughness of the MgO substrate. This report demonstrates that these 45° grain boundaries may be used to fabricate YBa2Cu3O7¿x Josephson junctions.
Resumo:
Fa més de 10 anys del primer Pla Nacional de Joventut de Catalunya, del pas de les polítiques de suport a l’associacionisme a les polítiques integrals, i amb aquestes la prolífica etapa dels Plans de Joventut i de l’expansió real de les polítiques de joventut al territori català. És a dia d’avui, en un moment de grans esdeveniments en aquest camp, en que es proposa un anàlisi sobre la futura evolució de les polítiques de joventut, basat en l’estudi i la interpretació de la informació existent i les aportacions de 9 persones vinculades al món de les polítiques de joventut
Resumo:
We consider the problem of allocating an infinitely divisible commodity among a group of agents with single-peaked preferences. A rule that has played a central role in the analysis of the problem is the so-called uniform rule. Chun (2001) proves that the uniform rule is the only rule satisfying Pareto optimality, no-envy, separability, and continuity (with respect to the social endowment). We obtain an alternative characterization by using a weak replication-invariance condition, called duplication-invariance, instead of continuity. Furthermore, we prove that Pareto optimality, equal division lower bound, and separability imply no-envy. Using this result, we strengthen one of Chun's (2001) characterizations of the uniform rule by showing that the uniform rule is the only rule satisfying Pareto optimality, equal división lower bound, separability, and either continuity or duplication-invariance.
Resumo:
This paper analyzes the different compositions of the catalan governing coalitions during the current democratic period, and offers some predictions about the coalitions that can be expected in the future. During this period, in catalan politics, there have been two main political issues over which the different parties have taken positions: rightist versus leftist with respect to economic policy, and sovereign versus centralist with respect to the power distribution within the state. I find that for any allocation of parliament seats there is a key party: a party that has a clear advantage in terms of being able to decide the composition of the governing coalition. I show the features that allow a party to become the key party and those that affect the size of the advantage of the key party.
Resumo:
Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data.Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositionaldata have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categoricaldata.This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986)in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the problem of whatparameterization to use
Resumo:
In this paper we address a problem arising in risk management; namely the study of price variations of different contingent claims in the Black-Scholes model due to anticipating future events. The method we propose to use is an extension of the classical Vega index, i.e. the price derivative with respect to the constant volatility, in thesense that we perturb the volatility in different directions. Thisdirectional derivative, which we denote the local Vega index, will serve as the main object in the paper and one of the purposes is to relate it to the classical Vega index. We show that for all contingent claims studied in this paper the local Vega index can be expressed as a weighted average of the perturbation in volatility. In the particular case where the interest rate and the volatility are constant and the perturbation is deterministic, the local Vega index is an average of this perturbation multiplied by the classical Vega index. We also study the well-known goal problem of maximizing the probability of a perfect hedge and show that the speed of convergence is in fact dependent of the local Vega index.
Resumo:
Abstract. The ability of 2 Rapid Bioassessment Protocols (RBPs) to assess stream water quality was compared in 2 Mediterranean-climate regions. The most commonly used RBPs in South Africa (SAprotocol) and the Iberian Peninsula (IB-protocol) are both multihabitat, field-based methods that use macroinvertebrates. Both methods use preassigned sensitivity weightings to calculate metrics and biotic indices. The SA- and IB-protocols differ with respect to sampling equipment (mesh size: 1000 lm vs 250 300 lm, respectively), segregation of habitats (substrate vs flow-type), and sampling and sorting procedures (variable time and intensity). Sampling was undertaken at 6 sites in South Africa and 5 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. Forty-four and 51 macroinvertebrate families were recorded in South Africa and the Iberian Peninsula, respectively; 77.3% of South African families and 74.5% of Iberian Peninsula families were found using both protocols. Estimates of community similarity compared between the 2 protocols were .60% similar among sites in South Africa and .54% similar among sites in the Iberian Peninsula (BrayCurtis similarity), and no significant differences were found between protocols (Multiresponse Permutation Procedure). Ordination based on Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling grouped macroinvertebrate samples on the basis of site rather than protocol. Biotic indices generated with the 2 protocols at each site did not differ. Thus, both RBPs produced equivalent results, and both were able to distinguish between biotic communities (mountain streams vs foothills) and detect water-quality impairment, regardless of differences in sampling equipment, segregation of habitats, and sampling and sorting procedures. Our results indicate that sampling a single habitat may be sufficient for assessing water quality, but a multihabitat approach to sampling is recommended where intrinsic variability of macroinvertebrate assemblages is high (e.g., in undisturbed sites in regions with Mediterranean climates). The RBP of choice should depend on whether the objective is routine biomonitoring of water quality or autecological or faunistic studies.
Resumo:
In response to an increasing need for ever-shorter personality instruments, Gosling, Rentfrow, and Swann (2003) developed the Ten-Item-Personality Inventory (TIPI), which measures the dimensions of the Five Factor Model (FFM) using 10 items (two for each dimension) and can be administered in about one minute. In two studies and using a multi-judge (self and observer) and multi-instrument design, we develop Spanish (Castilian) and Catalan versions of the TIPI and evaluate them in terms of internal consistency, test-retest reliability, convergent, discriminant, and content validity, as well as self-observer correlations. Test-retest correlations were strong, and convergence with the NEO-PI-R factors was significant. There were also strong correlations between observer ratings and the participants’ self-ratings. Despite some inconsistencies with respect to the Agreeableness scale, the Catalan translation and both translations into Spanish of the original TIPI demonstrated sufficient psychometric properties to warrant use as a Five Factor personality measure when the use of longer instruments is not convenient or possible. Furthermore, as the first translation of a brief standard Big Five Instrument into Catalan, this work should facilitate future research on personality in the Catalan-speaking population.
Resumo:
[cat] En aquest article es considera un problema de cooperació entre agents on cada agent realitza una contribució (diners, capital, treball, esforç) per tal d'obtenir un benefici comú a repartir. El repartiment proporcional respecte a les contribucions és una distribució que pertany al nucli del joc cooperatiu associat. A partir d'aquest model bàsic s'introdueix un agent extern que pot realitzar una determinada aportació que serveix per avaluar el potencial benefici de cada subcoalició d'agents si aquest nou agent finalment entrés. Aquesta anàlisi pot produir que el poder relatiu dels agents hagi variat. en concret s'avalua si la distribució proporcional és encara robusta des del punt de vista de la seva pertinença al conjunt de negociació. Amb aquest objectiu, analitzem el problema utilitzant el model de joc cooperatius amb estructura de coalició. Donat que, en general, la distribució proporcional, no pertany al conjunt de negociació, s'estudia una condició suficient per a que així sigui. També enunciem una condició necessària, i finalment es proposa una condició suficient que garanteix que el repartiment proporcional és la única distribució existent dins del conjunt de negociació.
Resumo:
[cat] En aquest article es considera un problema de cooperació entre agents on cada agent realitza una contribució (diners, capital, treball, esforç) per tal d'obtenir un benefici comú a repartir. El repartiment proporcional respecte a les contribucions és una distribució que pertany al nucli del joc cooperatiu associat. A partir d'aquest model bàsic s'introdueix un agent extern que pot realitzar una determinada aportació que serveix per avaluar el potencial benefici de cada subcoalició d'agents si aquest nou agent finalment entrés. Aquesta anàlisi pot produir que el poder relatiu dels agents hagi variat. en concret s'avalua si la distribució proporcional és encara robusta des del punt de vista de la seva pertinença al conjunt de negociació. Amb aquest objectiu, analitzem el problema utilitzant el model de joc cooperatius amb estructura de coalició. Donat que, en general, la distribució proporcional, no pertany al conjunt de negociació, s'estudia una condició suficient per a que així sigui. També enunciem una condició necessària, i finalment es proposa una condició suficient que garanteix que el repartiment proporcional és la única distribució existent dins del conjunt de negociació.