Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Estimating patterns of leaf herbivory along an altitudinal transect in NE Queensland rainforests: might global warming increase leaf herbivory in tropical rainforests?

Climate change has been taking place at unprecedented rates over the past decades. These fast alterations caused by human activities are leading to a global warming of the planet. Warmer temperatures are going to have important effects on vegetation and especially on tropical forests. Insects as well will be affected by climate change. This study tested the hypothesis that higher temperatures lead to a higher insect pressure on vegetation. Visual estimations of leaf damage were recorded and used to assess the extent of herbivory in nine 0.1ha plots along an altitudinal gradient, and therefore a temperature gradient. These estimations were made at both a community level and a species level, on 2 target species. Leaf toughness tests were performed on samples from the target species from each plot. Results showed a strong evidence of increasing insect damage along increasing temperature, with no significant effect from the leaf toughness.

Differential growth responses to water balance of coexisting deciduous tree species are linked to wood density in a Bolivian tropical dry forest

A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability.

Limitations and biases of conventional analysis of climate change. Towards an analysis coherent with sustainable development

This paper shows the numerous problems of conventional economic analysis in the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies. The article points out the many limitations, omissions, and the arbitrariness that have characterized most evaluation models applied up until now. These shortcomings, in an almost overwhelming way, have biased the result towards the recommendation of a lower aggressiveness of emission mitigation policies. Consequently, this paper questions whether these results provide an appropriate answer to the problem. Finally, various points that an analysis coherent with sustainable development should take into account are presented.

Tropical varieties for non-archimedean analytic spaces

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

The Evolution of the Climate Change Regime: Beyond a North-South Divide?

This research primarily analyses relevant climate bargaining dynamics that have been informed by a North-South impasse. This working paper argues that the first stage of negotiations for a climate convention indeed witnessed a North-South divide which became institutionalized in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, in subsequent negotiation rounds the key loci of bargaining struggles was centered between developed countries, in which relevant North-South cooperation dynamics were also present. Finally, this paper assesses the unfinished post-Kyoto bargaining process in which two trends are already being observed: both the emergence of a new geopolitics between the United States and major developing countries, and a fragmentation process within the South, in which the Copenhagen Accord itself has begun to institutionalize such fragmentation.

Textural classification of land cover using support vector machines: an empirical comparison with parametric, non parametric and hybrid classifiers in the Bolivian Amazon

Land cover classification is a key research field in remote sensing and land change science as thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data have become the basis for analyzing many socio-ecological issues. However, land cover classification remains a difficult task and it is especially challenging in heterogeneous tropical landscapes where nonetheless such maps are of great importance. The present study aims to establish an efficient classification approach to accurately map all broad land cover classes in a large, heterogeneous tropical area of Bolivia, as a basis for further studies (e.g., land cover-land use change). Specifically, we compare the performance of parametric (maximum likelihood), non-parametric (k-nearest neighbour and four different support vector machines - SVM), and hybrid classifiers, using both hard and soft (fuzzy) accuracy assessments. In addition, we test whether the inclusion of a textural index (homogeneity) in the classifications improves their performance. We classified Landsat imagery for two dates corresponding to dry and wet seasons and found that non-parametric, and particularly SVM classifiers, outperformed both parametric and hybrid classifiers. We also found that the use of the homogeneity index along with reflectance bands significantly increased the overall accuracy of all the classifications, but particularly of SVM algorithms. We observed that improvements in producer’s and user’s accuracies through the inclusion of the homogeneity index were different depending on land cover classes. Earlygrowth/degraded forests, pastures, grasslands and savanna were the classes most improved, especially with the SVM radial basis function and SVM sigmoid classifiers, though with both classifiers all land cover classes were mapped with producer’s and user’s accuracies of around 90%. Our approach seems very well suited to accurately map land cover in tropical regions, thus having the potential to contribute to conservation initiatives, climate change mitigation schemes such as REDD+, and rural development policies.

Registre isotòpic d'alquenones i lípids terrestres en sediment marí: una reconstrucció paleoclimàtica a l'oceà Índic

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Institute of mineralogy and geochemistry de la University of Lausanne, Suïssa, entre 2007 i 2009. Durant l’última dècada, la comunitat científica ha reconegut que les zones tropicals juguen un paper clau en els processos dinàmics que controlen el canvi climàtic global, probablement com a desencadenant dels canvis succeïts en altes latituds. A més a més, els sediments dels oceans tropicals, en trobar-se fora de l’impacte directe de les plaques de gel continentals creades durant les glaciacions, proporcionen un registre continu de les variacions climàtiques del planeta. Malgrat tot, encara hi ha moltes incògnites sobre el paper específic de les zones tropicals, especialment pel que fa a les variacions brusques suborbitals, degut als pocs registres d’alta resolució estudiats en aquestes àrees que abastin varis cicles glacial/interglacial. Per tal d’ajudar a clarificar el paper de les zones tropicals de l’hemisferi sud en el control del clima a escala mil•lenària s’ha estudiat la distribució i la composició isotòpica de biomarcadors moleculars marins i terrestres, a baixa resolució, en el testimoni MD98-2165 (9º39’S, 118º20’E, 2100 m de profunditat d’aigua, 42.3 m de llarg) està situat al sud-oest d’Indonèsia, on s’enregistren les temperatures superficials del mar més elevades del planeta i una elevada activitat convectiva, que té una influència en la distribució de la humitat atmosfèrica en una extensa superfície de la Terra. Les distribucions observades de biomarcadors terrígens (C23-C33 n-alcans i C20-C32 n-alcan-1-ols) són típiques del lipids de plantes superiors que arriben a l’oceà principalment per via eòlica. L’alcà de 31 àtoms de carboni i els alcohols de 28 o 32 àtoms de carboni són els homòlegs més abundants en ambdós testimonis. Cal destacar l’alcohol C32 com a homòleg principal durant les èpoques glacials, tot suggerint una expansió de les plantes tropicals C4 associada a unes condicions més àrides. La procedència d’aquests lipids queda corroborada mitjançant la seva composició isotòpica de carboni, que ens permet diferenciar la ruta fotosintètica emprada i per tant, entre el tipus de plantes.

Tropical cyclones as a critical phenomenon

It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm occurs. This means that no characteristic scale exists for the energy of tropical cyclones, except for the finite-size effects induced by the boundaries of the basins. This has important implications for the physics of tropical cyclones. We discuss up to what point tropical cyclones are related to critical phenomena (in the same way as earthquakes, rainfall, etc.), providing a consistent picture of the energy balance in the system. Moreover, this perspective allows one to visualize more clearly the effects of global warming on tropical-cyclone occurrence.