Riding the South Sea bubble

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

Time and space: genetic structure of the common sea urchin paracentrotus lividus in the south-eastern iberian coast

Spatio-temporal variability in settlement and recruitment, high mortality during the first life-history stages, and selection may determine the genetic structure of cohorts of long-lived marine invertebrates at small scales. We conducted a spatial and temporal analysis of the common Mediterranean Sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus to determine the genetic structure of cohorts at different scales. In Tossa de Mar (NW Mediterranean), recruitment was followed over 5 consecutive springs (2006-2010). In spring 2008, recruits and two-year-old individuals were collected at 6 locations along East and South Iberian coasts separated from 200 to over 1,100 km. All cohorts presented a high genetic diversity based on a fragment of mtCOI. Our results showed a marked genetic homogeneity in the temporal monitoring and a low degree of spatial structure in 2006. In 2008, coupled with an abnormality in the usual circulation patterns in the area, the genetic structure of the southern populations studied changed markedly, with arrival of many private haplotypes. This fact highlights the importance of point events in renewing the genetic makeup of populations, which can only be detected through analysis of the cohort structure coupling temporal and spatial perspectives.