The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

The political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politiciansperceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters.To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknownand investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politiciansmake too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannotbe fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary tothe conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may,under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study howpolitical rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistentwith a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection.They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economicuncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

One kind of lawlessness: estimating the welfare cost of Somali piracy

This paper estimates the effect of piracy attacks on shipping costs using a unique data set on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. We look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy attacks and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 lead to around a ten percent increase in shipping costs. We use this estimate to get a sense of the welfare loss imposed by piracy. Our intermediate estimate suggests that the creation of $120 million of revenue for pirates in the Somalia area led to a welfare loss of over $1.5 billion.

Towards the Automatic Merging of Lexical Resources: Automatic Mapping

Lexical Resources are a critical component for Natural Language Processing applications. However, the high cost of comparing and merging different resources has been a bottleneck to have richer resources with a broad range of potential uses for a significant number of languages.With the objective of reducing cost byeliminating human intervention, we present a new method for automating the merging of resources,with special emphasis in what we call the mapping step. This mapping step, which converts the resources into a common format that allows latter the merging, is usually performed with huge manual effort and thus makes the whole process very costly. Thus, we propose a method to perform this mapping fully automatically. To test our method, we have addressed the merging of two verb subcategorization frame lexica for Spanish, The resultsachieved, that almost replicate human work, demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

A Method Towards the Fully Automatic Merging of Lexical Resources

Lexical Resources are a critical component for Natural Language Processing applications. However, the high cost of comparing and merging different resources has been a bottleneck to obtain richer resources and a broader range of potential uses for a significant number of languages. With the objective of reducing cost by eliminating human intervention, we present a new method towards the automatic merging of resources. This method includes both, the automatic mapping of resources involved to a common format and merging them, once in this format. This paper presents how we have addressed the merging of two verb subcategorization frame lexica for Spanish, but our method will be extended to cover other types of Lexical Resources. The achieved results, that almost replicate human work, demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

A comment on the cost of capital for investments with non-homogeneous components

In this paper, the expression for the cost of capital is derived when net and replacement investments exhibit differences in their effective prices due to a different fiscal treatment. It is shown that, contrary to previous results in the literature, the cost of capital should be constructed under an opportunity cost criterion rather than a historical one. This result has some important economic consequences, since the optimizing firm will take into account not only the effective price for the new investments but also consider the opportunity cost of replacing them.

A comment on the cost of capital for investments with non-homogeneous components

In this paper, the expression for the cost of capital is derived when net and replacement investments exhibit differences in their effective prices due to a different fiscal treatment. It is shown that, contrary to previous results in the literature, the cost of capital should be constructed under an opportunity cost criterion rather than a historical one. This result has some important economic consequences, since the optimizing firm will take into account not only the effective price for the new investments but also consider the opportunity cost of replacing them.

Towards the automatic merging of language resources

Language Resources are a critical component for Natural Language Processing applications. Throughout the years many resources were manually created for the same task, but with different granularity and coverage information. To create richer resources for a broad range of potential reuses, nformation from all resources has to be joined into one. The hight cost of comparing and merging different resources by hand has been a bottleneck for merging existing resources. With the objective of reducing human intervention, we present a new method for automating merging resources. We have addressed the merging of two verbs subcategorization frame (SCF) lexica for Spanish. The results achieved, a new lexicon with enriched information and conflicting information signalled, reinforce our idea that this approach can be applied for other task of NLP.

Cyclosporine A, an alternative to the oral lichen planus erosive treatment

We present a double-blind study in two groups afflicted with oral lichen planus erythematous of long evolution and resistant to other treatments. We tested on it a treatment with Cyclosporine A (CyA) which had been successfully used before by many dermatologists. In the group A we used mouthwashes with a 5 ml Cyclosporine A solution to a 10% in olive oil of 0.4 degrees of acidity for five minutes, three times a day for eight weeks. In the control group we used acetonide of triamcinolone 01% in aqueous solution. Patients in group A improved considerably in their symptomatology in a 90% against a 60% in group B. In group A we could appreciate a disappearance of the symptomatology after two weeks of treatment in 60% of patients against 30% in group B. CyA can be an alternative to the conventional treatments in the acute period of lichen planus although it can not be considered as a first option drug because of the high cost of the treatment. For long term, results are not so good and we consider that extensive studies are necessary

The relevance of theobromine for the beneficial effects of cocoa consumption.

Cocoa consumption began in America and in the mid sixteenth Century it quickly spread to Europe. Beyond being considered a pleasant habit due to its rich sweet lingering taste, chocolate was considered a good nutrient and even a medicine. Traditionally, health benefits of cocoa have been related with the high content of antioxidants of Theobroma cocoa beans. However, the direct psychoactive effect due to methylxanthines in cocoa is notable. Theobromine and caffeine, in the proportions found in cocoa, are responsible for the liking of the food/beverage. These compounds influence in a positive way our moods and our state of alertness. Theobromine, which is found in higher amounts than caffeine, seems to be behind several effects attributed to cocoa intake. The main mechanisms of action are inhibition of phosphodiesterases and blockade of adenosine receptors. Further mechanisms are being explored to better understand the health benefits associated to theobromine consumption. Unlike what happens in other mammals -pets- included, theobromine is safe for humans and has fewer unwanted effects than caffeine. Therefore, theobromine deserves attention as one of the most attractive molecules in cocoa.

An ATM distributed simulator for network management research

Due to the high cost of a large ATM network working up to full strength to apply our ideas about network management, i.e., dynamic virtual path (VP) management and fault restoration, we developed a distributed simulation platform for performing our experiments. This platform also had to be capable of other sorts of tests, such as connection admission control (CAC) algorithms, routing algorithms, and accounting and charging methods. The platform was posed as a very simple, event-oriented and scalable simulation. The main goal was the simulation of a working ATM backbone network with a potentially large number of nodes (hundreds). As research into control algorithms and low-level, or rather cell-level methods, was beyond the scope of this study, the simulation took place at a connection level, i.e., there was no real traffic of cells. The simulated network behaved like a real network accepting and rejecting SNMP ones, or experimental tools using the API node

Ferromagnetic shape memory alloys: structural and thermal properties

The most extensively studied Heusler alloys are those based on the Ni-Mn-Ga system. However, to overcome the high cost of Gallium and the usually low martensitic transformation temperature, the search for Ga-free alloys has been recently attempted, particularly, by introducing In, Sn or Sb. In this work, two alloys (Mn50Ni35.5In14.5 and Ni50Mn35In15) have been obtained by melt spinning. We outline their structural and thermal behaviour. Mn50Ni35.5In14.5 alloy has the transformation above room temperature whereas Ni50Mn35In15 does not have this transformation in the temperature range here analyzed

Combining phospholipases and a liquid lipase for one-step biodiesel production using crude oils

Background Enzymatic biodiesel is becoming an increasingly popular topic in bioenergy literature because of its potential to overcome the problems posed by chemical processes. However, the high cost of the enzymatic process still remains the main drawback for its industrial application, mostly because of the high price of refined oils. Unfortunately, low cost substrates, such as crude soybean oil, often release a product that hardly accomplishes the final required biodiesel specifications and need an additional pretreatment for gums removal. In order to reduce costs and to make the enzymatic process more efficient, we developed an innovative system for enzymatic biodiesel production involving a combination of a lipase and two phospholipases. This allows performing the enzymatic degumming and transesterification in a single step, using crude soybean oil as feedstock, and converting part of the phospholipids into biodiesel. Since the two processes have never been studied together, an accurate analysis of the different reaction components and conditions was carried out. Results Crude soybean oil, used as low cost feedstock, is characterized by a high content of phospholipids (900 ppm of phosphorus). However, after the combined activity of different phospholipases and liquid lipase Callera Trans L, a complete transformation into fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs >95%) and a good reduction of phosphorus (P <5 ppm) was achieved. The combination of enzymes allowed avoidance of the acid treatment required for gums removal, the consequent caustic neutralization, and the high temperature commonly used in degumming systems, making the overall process more eco-friendly and with higher yield. Once the conditions were established, the process was also tested with different vegetable oils with variable phosphorus contents. Conclusions Use of liquid lipase Callera Trans L in biodiesel production can provide numerous and sustainable benefits. Besides reducing the costs derived from enzyme immobilization, the lipase can be used in combination with other enzymes such as phospholipases for gums removal, thus allowing the use of much cheaper, non-refined oils. The possibility to perform degumming and transesterification in a single tank involves a great efficiency increase in the new era of enzymatic biodiesel production at industrial scale.