Interlinkages and forecasting made possible by the use of the DECOIN analytical tool kit

This technical report is a document prepared as a deliverable [D4.3 Report of the Interlinkages and forecasting prototype tool] of a EU project – DECOIN Project No. 044428 - FP6-2005-SSP-5A. The text is divided into 4 sections: (1) this short introductory section explains the purpose of the report; (2) the second section provides a general discussion of a systemic problem found in existing quantitative analysis of sustainability. It addresses the epistemological implications of complexity, which entails the need of dealing with the existence of Multiple-Scales and non-equivalent narratives (multiple dimensions/attributes) to be used to define sustainability issues. There is an unavoidable tension between a “steady-state view” (= the perception of what is going on now – reflecting a PAST --& PRESENT view of the reality) versus an “evolutionary view” (= the unknown transformation that we have to expect in the process of becoming of the observed reality and in the observer – reflecting a PRESENT --& FUTURE view of the reality). The section ends by listing the implications of these points on the choice of integrated packages of sustainability indicators; (3) the third section illustrates the potentiality of the DECOIN toolkit for the study of sustainability trade-offs and linkages across indicators using quantitative examples taken from cases study of another EU project (SMILE). In particular, this section starts by addressing the existence of internal constraints to sustainability (economic versus social aspects). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of ageing and immigration on the economic viability of social systems. Then the section continues by exploring external constraints to sustainability (economic development vs the environment). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of current strategy of economic development based on externalization and the “bubbles-disease”; (4) the last section presents a critical appraisal of the quality of energy data found in energy statistics. It starts with a discussion of the general goal of statistical accounting. Then it introduces the concept of multipurpose grammars. The second part uses the experience made in the activities of the DECOIN project to answer the question: how useful are EUROSTAT energy statistics? The answer starts with an analysis of basic epistemological problems associated with accounting of energy. This discussion leads to the acknowledgment of an important epistemological problem: the unavoidable bifurcations in the mechanism of accounting needed to generate energy statistics. By using numerical example the text deals with the following issues: (i) the pitfalls of the actual system of accounting in energy statistics; (ii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in BP statistics; (iii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in Eurostat statistics. The section ends by proposing an innovative method to represent energy statistics which can result more useful for those willing develop sustainability indicators.

Toward partial reorientation of land management for sustainability in view of material circulation: biophysical and historical analysis

This paper explores two major issues, from biophysical and historical viewpoints. We examine land management, which we define as the long-term fertility maintenance of land in relation to agriculture, fishery and forestry. We also explore humans’ positive role as agents aiming to reinforce harmonious materials circulation within the land. Liebig’s view on nature, agriculture and land, emphasizes the maintenance of long-term land fertility based on his agronomical thought that the circulation of matter in agricultural fields must be maintained with manure as much as possible. The thoughts of several classical economists, on nature, agriculture and land are reassessed from Liebig’s view point. Then, the land management problem is discussed at a much more fundamental level, to understand the necessary conditions for life in relation to land management. This point is analyzed in terms of two mechanisms: entropy disposal on the earth, and material circulation against gravitational field. Finally from the historical example of the metropolis of Edo, it is shown that there is yet another necessary condition for the sustainable management of land based on the creation of harmonious material cycles among cities, farm land, forests and surrounding sea areas in which humans play a vital role as agent.

An ex-post view of inequality of opportunity in France and its regions

This paper proposes an ex-post measure of inequality of opportunity in France and its regions by assessing the inequality between individuals exerting the same effort. To this end, we define a fair income that fulfils ex-post equality of opportunity requirements. Unfairness is measured by an unfair Gini based on the distance between the actual income and the fair income. Our findings reveal that the measures of ex-post inequality of opportunity largely vary across regions, and that this is due to di_erences in reward schemes and in the impact of the non responsibility factors of income. We find that most regions have actual incomes closer to fair incomes than to average income, excepted Ile de France where the actual income looks poorly related to effort variables. Finally, we find that income inequality and inequality of opportunity are positively correlated among regions.

The role of computational fluid dynamics in the management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: a clinicians' view

Objective: The importance of hemodynamics in the etiopathogenesis of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) is widely accepted.Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used increasingly for hemodynamic predictions. However, alogn with thecontinuing development and validation of these tools, it is imperative to collect the opinion of the clinicians. Methods: A workshopon CFD was conducted during the European Society of Minimally Invasive Neurological Therapy (ESMINT) Teaching Course,Lisbon, Portugal. 36 delegates, mostly clinicians, performed supervised CFD analysis for an IA, using the @neuFuse softwaredeveloped within the European project @neurIST. Feedback on the workshop was collected and analyzed. The performancewas assessed on a scale of 1 to 4 and, compared with experts’ performance. Results: Current dilemmas in the management ofunruptured IAs remained the most important motivating factor to attend the workshop and majority of participants showedinterest in participating in a multicentric trial. The participants achieved an average score of 2.52 (range 0–4) which was 63% (range 0–100%) of an expert user. Conclusions: Although participants showed a manifest interest in CFD, there was a clear lack ofawareness concerning the role of hemodynamics in the etiopathogenesis of IAs and the use of CFD in this context. More effortstherefore are required to enhance understanding of the clinicians in the subject.

A global view of economic growth

This paper integrates in a unified and tractable framework some of the key insights of the field of international trade and economic growth. It examines a sequence of theoretical models that share a common description of technology and preferences but differ on their assumptions about trade frictions. By comparing the predictions of these models against each other, it is possible to identify a variety of channels through which trade affects the evolution of world income and its geographical distribution. By comparing the predictions of these models against the data, it is also possible to construct coherent explanations of income differences and long-run trends in economic growth.

Monetary policy in a systemic crisis

This paper examines the monetary policy followed during the current financial crisisfrom the perspective of the theory of the lender of last resort. It is argued that standardmonetary policy measures would have failed because the channels through whichmonetary policy is implemented depend upon the well functioning of the interbankmarket. As the crisis developed, liquidity vanished and the interbank market collapsed,central banks had to inject much more liquidity at low interest rates than predicted bystandard monetary policy models. At the same time, as the interbank market did notallow for the redistribution of liquidity among banks, central banks had to design newchannels for liquidity injection.

Spanish auditors and the 'true and fair view'

In 1990 a new Spanish 'Plan General de Contabilidad' (PGC) implementedthe requirements of the EU 4th and 7th Directives in Spain. Included in the PGC is the requirement, derived from the 4th Directive, that accounts should present a 'true and fair view', in Spanish 'imagen fiel'. Where the term has been used in English speaking jurisdictions it has proved to have a variety of shades of meaning, and to have had strikingly different impact in different countries. Within the European Union the term has been seen as a 'Trojan horse', inserted into the 4th Directive to inject an Anglo-Saxon approach of flexibility and judgement dependent accounting into a Continental European accounting tradition of detailed prescription and uniformity. In this paper we report on a survey of the views and experience of Spanish auditors relating to 'imagen fiel'. Specifically, we:1) Review the English language literature on 'true and fair view' to identify the key areas of controversy.2) Consider the significance of the 'true and fair view' within the EU 4th Directive.3) Report on the experience of Spanish auditors in working with this concept, their views on the value of the term, and their experience in use of the true and fair view 'override'.

Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank

We model systemic risk in an interbank market. Banks face liquidityneeds as consumers are uncertain about where they need to consume. Interbank credit lines allow to cope with these liquidity shocks while reducing the cost of maintaining reserves. However, the interbank market exposes the system to a coordination failure(gridlock equilibrium) even if all banks are solvent. When one bankis insolvent, the stability of the banking system is affected in various ways depending on the patterns of payments across locations. We investigate the ability of the banking industry to withstand the insolvency of one bank and whether the closure ofone bank generates a chain reaction on the rest of the system. Weanalyze the coordinating role of the Central Bank in preventing payments systemic repercussions and we examine the justification ofthe Too-big-to-fail-policy.

The struggle against creative accounting: Is "true and fair view" part of the problem or part of the solution?

Creative accounting is a growing issue of interest in Spain. In this article we argue that the concept true and fair view can limit or promote the use of creative accounting depending upon its interpretation. We review the range of meanings that true and fair view can take at an international level and compare the experience of the United Kingdom with the Australian one by analysing the use of true and fair view to limit creative accounting. Finally, we suggest lines of action to be considered by the Spanish accounting standards-setting institutions.

Systemic crises and growth

In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have on average grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative effect on GDP growth. This link coexists with the negative link between variance and growth typically found in the literature. To explain the link between crises and growth we present a model where weak institutions lead to severe financial constraints and low growth. Financial liberalization policies that facilitaterisk-taking increase leverage and investment. This leads to higher growth, but also toa greater incidence of crises. Conditions are established under which the costs of crises are outweighed by the benefits of higher growth.

The three strands of intercultural polities: a comprehensive view. A critical review of Bouchard and Cantle recent books on interculturalism

Within the emerging policy debate on interculturalism we critically review two recent books in 2012: Bouchard’s L’interculturalisme: un point de vue quebecois, and Cantle’s Interculturalism: The New Era of Cohesion and Diversity. In my view, both contribute very directly to open a foundational debate on interculturalism. In addressing the point of convergence and the dividing lines of these two contributions, I will claim that in spite of having one core concept of interculturalism, there are, however, at least two basic conceptions that have to be interpreted in complementary ways: Bouchard’s essay represents the contractual strand, Cantle’s book the cohesion strand. At the end I would also suggest that these two strands do not manage to express explicitly that diversity can also be seen as a resource of innovation and creativity, and so can drive individual and social development. This view is based on the diversity advantage literature already informing most of the diversity debate in Europe and elsewhere. This is what I will call the constructivist strand. My ultimate purpose is to defend a comprehensive view, grounded on the argument that no one can have the sole authority to define intercultural policy, since the three strands can be applied at different moments, according to different purposes and policy needs. The challenge now is that policy managers be able to achieve a balance between these three policy drivers.

Plant-associated microorganisms: a view from the scope of microbiology

Microorganisms interact with plants because plants offer a wide diversity of habitats including the phyllosphere (aerial plant part), the rhizosphere (zone of influence of the root system), and the endosphere (internal transport system). Interactions of epiphytes, rhizophytes or endophytes may be detrimental or beneficial for either the microorganism or the plant and may be classified as neutralism, commensalism, synergism, mutualism, amensalism, competition or parasitism

Hereditary hepatic and systemic amyloidosis caused by a new deletion/insertion mutation in the apolipoprotein AI gene.

We report a Spanish family with autosomal-dominant non-neuropathic hereditary amyloidosis with a unique hepatic presentation and death from liver failure, usually by the sixth decade. The disease is caused by a previously unreported deletion/insertion mutation in exon 4 of the apolipoprotein AI (apoAI) gene encoding loss of residues 60-71 of normal mature apoAI and insertion at that position of two new residues, ValThr. Affected individuals are heterozygous for this mutation and have both normal apoAI and variant molecules bearing one extra positive charge, as predicted from the DNA sequence. The amyloid fibrils are composed exclusively of NH2-terminal fragments of the variant, ending mainly at positions corresponding to residues 83 and 92 in the mature wild-type sequence. Amyloid fibrils derived from the other three known amyloidogenic apoAI variants are also composed of similar NH2-terminal fragments. All known amyloidogenic apoAI variants carry one extra positive charge in this region, suggesting that it may be responsible for their enhanced amyloidogenicity. In addition to causing a new phenotype, this is the first deletion mutation to be described in association with hereditary amyloidosis and it significantly extends the value of the apoAI model for investigation of molecular mechanisms of amyloid fibrillogenesis.

Evaluating solutions to process, view and listen mathematical formula within an accessible context

Proves de conversió de fòrmules matemàtiques des d'editors de text ofimàtics i des de Làtex. Visionat en HTML i MathML. El millor resultat s'aconsegueix amb MSWord+MathType i IE+MathPlayer.