Cervical cancer: incidence and survival in migrants within Spain

This study examined the incidence of cervical cancer and survival rates according to migrant experience of women from different regions of Spain to Girona, Catalonia (Spain). DESIGN--Using data from the population based cancer registry of Girona for the period 1980-89, crude and age adjusted incidence rates were calculated for local-born and first generation migrants from other Spanish regions. The age standardised rate ratio (SRR) was calculated and Cox's regression model was used to adjust survival according to migrant status for age and stage at diagnosis. MAIN RESULTS--The incidence of cervical cancer was significantly higher in first generation Spanish migrants compared with locally born women (SRR: 2.02; 95% CI 1.40:2.92). The stage at diagnosis was more advanced among migrants. Survival probability was significantly associated with stage at diagnosis, but age and region of birth were not. CONCLUSIONS--Migrants from the southern Spanish regions show a twofold excess in the incidence of cervical cancer compared with the Girona-born female population. Cases of cervical cancer in migrants are diagnosed at a more advanced stage and as a consequence have a poorer prognosis.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Absorbing boundary conditions for inertial processos

A recent paper by J. Heinrichs [Phys. Rev. E 48, 2397 (1993)] presents analytic expressions for the first-passage times and the survival probability for a particle moving in a field of random correlated forces. We believe that the analysis there is flawed due to an improper use of boundary conditions. We compare that result, in the white noise limit, with the known exact expression of the mean exit time.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Optimal stop-loss reinsurance: a dependence analysis

The stop-loss reinsurance is one of the most important reinsurance contracts in the insurance market. From the insurer point of view, it presents an interesting property: it is optimal if the criterion of minimizing the variance of the cost of the insurer is used. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the analysis of the stop-loss contract in one period from the point of view of the insurer and the reinsurer. Firstly, the influence of the parameters of the reinsurance contract on the correlation coefficient between the cost of the insurer and the cost of the reinsurer is studied. Secondly, the optimal stop-loss contract is obtained if the criterion used is the maximization of the joint survival probability of the insurer and the reinsurer in one period.

Monotonic continuous-time random walks with drift and stochastic reset events

In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which suddenly bring the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonic continuous-time random walks with a constant drift: The process increases between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of the deterministic drift. As a result of all these combined factors interesting properties emerge, like the existence (for any drift strength) of a stationary transition probability density function, or the faculty of the model to reproduce power-law-like behavior. General formulas for two extreme statistics, the survival probability, and the mean exit time, are also derived. To corroborate in an independent way the results of the paper, Monte Carlo methods were used. These numerical estimations are in full agreement with the analytical predictions.

Uncorrelatedness in growing networks with preferential survival of nodes

The emergence of uncorrelated growing networks is proved when nodes are removed either uniformly or under the preferential survival rule recently observed in the World Wide Web evolution. To this aim, the rate equation for the joint probability of degrees is derived, and stationary symmetrical solutions are obtained, by passing to the continuum limit. When a uniformly random removal of extant nodes and linear preferential attachment of new nodes are at work, we prove that the only stationary solution corresponds to uncorrelated networks for any removal rate r ∈ (0,1). In the more general case of preferential survival of nodes, uncorrelated solutions are also obtained. These results generalize the uncorrelatedness displayed by the (undirected) Barab´asi-Albert network model to models with uniformly random and selective (against low degrees) removal of nodes

Contractive probability metrics and asymptotic behavior of dissipative kinetic equations

The present notes are intended to present a detailed review of the existing results in dissipative kinetic theory which make use of the contraction properties of two main families of probability metrics: optimal mass transport and Fourier-based metrics. The first part of the notes is devoted to a self-consistent summary and presentation of the properties of both probability metrics, including new aspects on the relationships between them and other metrics of wide use in probability theory. These results are of independent interest with potential use in other contexts in Partial Differential Equations and Probability Theory. The second part of the notes makes a different presentation of the asymptotic behavior of Inelastic Maxwell Models than the one presented in the literature and it shows a new example of application: particle's bath heating. We show how starting from the contraction properties in probability metrics, one can deduce the existence, uniqueness and asymptotic stability in classical spaces. A global strategy with this aim is set up and applied in two dissipative models.

Job accessibility and employment probability

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of residential job accessibility on female employment probability in the metropolitan areas of Barcelona and Madrid. Following a “spatial mismatch” framework, we estimate a female employment probability equation where variables controlling for personal characteristics, residential segregation and employment potential on public transport network are included. Data used come from Microcensus 2001 of INE (National Institute of Statistics). The research focuses on the treatment of endogeneity problems and the measurement of accessibility variables. Our results show that low job accessibility in public transport negatively affects employment probability. The intensity of this effect tends to decrease with individual’s educational attainment. A higher degree of residential segregation also reduces job probability in a significant way..

Survival, development and growth of larvae of the blue swimmer crab, Portunus pelagicus, cultured under different photoperiod conditions

The blue swimmer crab is a commercially important species of the tropical Indo-Pacific regions that shows substantial potential as a candidate species for aquaculture. Optimization of larval rearing conditions, including photoperiod, is therefore important to establish a method for the intensive hatchery culture of this species. Newly hatched larvae of Portunuspelagicus in first zoeal stage (ZI) were reared under five photoperiod regimes 0L: 24D, 6L: 18D, 12L: 12D, 18L: 6D, and 24L: 0D (5 replicates per treatment) till they metamorphosed to megalopae (ranged from 8.5 ± 0.3 days (18L: 6D) to 10.8 ± 1.8 days (0L: 24D) at 29 ± 1 °C). Daily, larvae of each treatment were fed an identical diet of mixed rotifer and Artemia nauplii, and the survival and molt to successive stages was monitored. Newly hatched ZI larvae of P. pelagicus could successfully develop to the megalopal stage under all tested photoperiod conditions, but we detected significant differences in survival among treatments (p & 0.05). The constant darkness treatment (0L: 24D) had the lowest (19.2 ± 7.2%, mean ± S.E.) cumulative survival from ZI to the megalopal stage, while the 18L: 6D treatment achieved the highest survival (51.2 ± 23.6%). Similarly, the photoperiod significantly affected zoeal development. Constant darkness led to the longest cumulative zoeal duration (10.8 ± 1.8 days), whereas the 18L: 6D treatment rendered the shortest larval development (8.5 ± 0.3 days). In addition, larvae reared under constant darkness resulted in the smallest megalopae (carapace length = 1.44 ± 0.09 mm) and the lowest dry weight (0.536 ± 0.188 mg). In conclusion, photoperiod significantly affected the survival, development, and growth of P. pelagicus zoeal larvae. Constant darkness led to the lowest larval survival and developmental rate, while a photoperiod regime of 18L: 6D appeared to be the most suitable condition for the rearing of zoeal larvae of P. pelagicus.

Neuroendocrine Tumors (NETs): A population-based study of incidence and survival in Girona province, 1994-2004

Els tumors neuroendocrins (TNEs) són un grup de neoplàsies poc freqüents i heterogènies i amb un ampli espectre d’agressivitat. Hi ha molt poca informació epidemiològica a nivell mundial, l’objectiu d’aquest estudi ha estat el de reportar-ne les dades a la província de Girona. Hem inclòs tots els codis de la ICD-O3 que codifiquen un TNE, període 1994-2002. Hem identificat 698 tumors. Es reporten les dades tant de la casuística com les taxes d’incidència i supervivència de cada TNE per separat. Els resultats són consistents amb les publicacions europees. El fet d’haver reportat la incidència i la supervivència dels TNEs a Girona contribueix a un millor coneixement d’aquestes neoplàsies.

Effect of Temperature on the Development and Survival of the Argentine Ant, Linepithema humile

The influence of temperature on the developmental times and survival of insects can largely determine their distribution. For invasive species, like the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), these data are essential for predicting their potential range based on mechanistic models. In the case of this species, such data are too scarce and incomplete to make accurate predictions based on its physiological needs. This research provides comprehensive new data about brood survival and developmental times at a wide range of temperatures under laboratory conditions. Temperature affected both the complete brood development from egg to adult worker and each of the immature stages separately. The higher the temperature, the shorter the development times. Brood survival from egg to adult was low, with the maximum survival rate being only 16% at 26º C. Temperature also affected survival of each of the immature stages differently: eggs were negatively affected by high temperatures, while larvae were negatively affected by low temperatures, and the survival of pupae was apparentlyindependent of environmental temperature. At 32º C no eggs survived, while at 18º C less than 2% of the eggs hatched into larva. The data from the present study are essential for developing prediction models about the distribution range of this tramp species based on its physiological needs in relation to temperature

Hilbert space on probability density functions with Aitchison geometry

Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities

Evaluating the probability and the impact of a failure in GMPLS based networks

In this paper, we define a new scheme to develop and evaluate protection strategies for building reliable GMPLS networks. This is based on what we have called the network protection degree (NPD). The NPD consists of an a priori evaluation, the failure sensibility degree (FSD), which provides the failure probability, and an a posteriori evaluation, the failure impact degree (FID), which determines the impact on the network in case of failure, in terms of packet loss and recovery time. Having mathematical formulated these components, experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the utilization of the NPD, when used to enhance some current QoS routing algorithms in order to offer a certain degree of protection

Estimation of the probability of congestion using Monte Carlo method in OPS networks

In networks with small buffers, such as optical packet switching based networks, the convolution approach is presented as one of the most accurate method used for the connection admission control. Admission control and resource management have been addressed in other works oriented to bursty traffic and ATM. This paper focuses on heterogeneous traffic in OPS based networks. Using heterogeneous traffic and bufferless networks the enhanced convolution approach is a good solution. However, both methods (CA and ECA) present a high computational cost for high number of connections. Two new mechanisms (UMCA and ISCA) based on Monte Carlo method are proposed to overcome this drawback. Simulation results show that our proposals achieve lower computational cost compared to enhanced convolution approach with an small stochastic error in the probability estimation