Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific innovation covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.

State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Analcime crystallization and compositional profiles - Comparing approaches to detect post-depositional alterations in archaeological pottery

The approaches of comparative studies and profile measurements, often used in order to detect post-depositional alterations of ceramics, have been applied simultaneously to two sets of Roman pottery, both of which include altered individuals. As analytical techniques, Neutron Activation Analysis and X-Ray Diffraction have been used. Both approaches lead to substantially different results. This shows that they detect different levels of alteration and should complement each other rather than being used exclusively. For the special process of a glassy phase decomposition followed by a crystallization of the Na-zeolite analcime, the results suggest that it changes high-fired calcareous pottery rapidly, and so fundamentally that the results of various archaeometric techniques can be severely disturbed.

A contribution to the study of post-depositional alterations of pottery using TL dating analysis

In luminescence dating, the potassium concentration significantly contributes to the dose rate value in the age estimation. Within this study, fine-grain thermoluminescence dating has been applied on sherds of calcareous pottery of known age, excavated at a Roman site in Mallorca, Spain. For those of the samples that showed signs of severe potassium leaching, according to chemical and mineralogical examination, the thermoluminescence analysis provided overestimated dates. By using the known archaeological age of the samples, a corrected dose rate value can be estimated which provides the potassium concentration averaged for the burial period. Finally, a step-like model can then be used to estimate the fraction of the burial period after which most of the alteration effects took place.

Implications of burial alterations on luminescence dating of archaeological ceramics

Recent mineralogical studies on archaeological pottery samples report significant variations in alkali metal concentrations due to environmental alterations during burial. Here we examine the effects of potassium (K) leaching on luminescence dating. The effect on the estimation of the dose rate is studied by considering four models of leaching (exponential, linear, early and late) and their impact on fine- and coarse-grain dating are calculated. The modeling approaches are applied to two cases of pottery in which evidence for alteration was found. Additionally, TL dating performed on pottery of one of the studied cases, indicates the importance of leaching effects on absolute dating measurements.