Assessing the quality of alternative energy sources: Energy Return On the Investment (EROI), the metabolic pattern of societies and energy statistics

This paper presents an initial challenge to tackle the every so "tricky" points encountered when dealing with energy accounting, and thereafter illustrates how such a system of accounting can be used when assessing for the metabolic changes in societies. The paper is divided in four main sections. The first three, present a general discussion on the main issues encountered when conducting energy analyses. The last section, subsequently, combines this heuristic approach to the actual formalization of it, in quantitative terms, for the analysis of possible energy scenarios. Section one covers the broader issue of how to account for the relevant categories used when accounting for Joules of energy; emphasizing on the clear distinction between Primary Energy Sources (PES) (which are the physical exploited entities that are used to derive useable energy forms (energy carriers)) and Energy Carriers (EC) (the actual useful energy that is transmitted for the appropriate end uses within a society). Section two sheds light on the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Here, it is emphasized that, there must already be a certain amount of energy carriers available to be able to extract/exploit Primary Energy Sources to thereafter generate a net supply of energy carriers. It is pointed out that this current trend of intense energy supply has only been possible to the great use and dependence on fossil energy. Section three follows up on the discussion of EROI, indicating that a single numeric indicator such as an output/input ratio is not sufficient in assessing for the performance of energetic systems. Rather an integrated approach that incorporates (i) how big the net supply of Joules of EC can be, given an amount of extracted PES (the external constraints); (ii) how much EC needs to be invested to extract an amount of PES; and (iii) the power level that it takes for both processes to succeed, is underlined. Section four, ultimately, puts the theoretical concepts at play, assessing for how the metabolic performances of societies can be accounted for within this analytical framework.

GNSS signal detection based on first-order absolute statistics

Aquest projecte es centra principalment en el detector no coherent d’un GPS. Per tal de caracteritzar el procés de detecció d’un receptor, es necessita conèixer l’estadística implicada. Pel cas dels detectors no coherents convencionals, l’estadística de segon ordre intervé plenament. Les prestacions que ens dóna l’estadística de segon ordre, plasmada en la ROC, són prou bons tot i que en diferents situacions poden no ser els millors. Aquest projecte intenta reproduir el procés de detecció mitjançant l’estadística de primer ordre com a alternativa a la ja coneguda i implementada estadística de segon ordre. Per tal d’aconseguir-ho, s’usen expressions basades en el Teorema Central del Límit i de les sèries Edgeworth com a bones aproximacions. Finalment, tant l’estadística convencional com l’estadística proposada són comparades, en termes de la ROC, per tal de determinar quin detector no coherent ofereix millor prestacions en cada situació.

Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers

Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods:We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409–412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322–323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits).Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting.Conclusions: this incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued

Reliable detection of directional couplings using rank statistics

To detect directional couplings from time series various measures based on distances in reconstructed state spaces were introduced. These measures can, however, be biased by asymmetries in the dynamics' structure, noise color, or noise level, which are ubiquitous in experimental signals. Using theoretical reasoning and results from model systems we identify the various sources of bias and show that most of them can be eliminated by an appropriate normalization. We furthermore diminish the remaining biases by introducing a measure based on ranks of distances. This rank-based measure outperforms existing distance-based measures concerning both sensitivity and specificity for directional couplings. Therefore, our findings are relevant for a reliable detection of directional couplings from experimental signals.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

A subsampling approach to estimating the distribution of diversing statistics with application to assessing financial market risks

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution ofstatistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying timeseries in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results weprovide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statisticswith dependent data and present two applications to assessing financialmarket risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk andprovides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizingSafety First portofolio selection.

The impact of "early" nineteenth-century globalization on foreign trade in the Southern Cone: A study of British trade statistics

This paper deals with the impact of "early" nineteenth-century globalization (c.1815-1860) on foreign trade in the Southern Cone (SC). Most of the evidence is drawn from bilateral trades between Britain and the SC, at a time when Britain was the main commercial partner of the new republics. The main conclusion drawn is that early globalization had a positive impact on foreign trade in the SC, and this was due to: improvements in the SC's terms of trade during this period; the SC's per capita consumption of textiles (the main manufacture traded on world markets at that time) increased substantially during this period, at a time when clothing was one of the main items of SC household budgets; British merchants brought with them capital, shipping, insurance, and also facilitated the formation of vast global networks, which further promoted the SC's exports to a wider range of outlets.

Statistics in archaeology: New directions

Connections between Statistics and Archaeology have always appeared veryfruitful. The objective of this paper is to offer an outlook of somestatistical techniques that are being developed in the most recentyears and that can be of interest for archaeologists in the short run.

Geographical deviations in foreign trade statistics: A study into European trade with Latin American Countries, 1925

We have analyzed the spatial accuracy of European foreign trade statistics compared to Latin American. We have also included USA s data because of the importance of this country in Latin American trade. We have developed a method for mapping discrepancies between exporters and importers, trying to isolate systematic spatial deviations. Although our results don t allow a unique explanation, they present some interesting clues to the distribution channels in the Latin American Continent as well as some spatial deviations for statistics in individual countries. Connecting our results with the literature specialized in the accuracy of foreign trade statistics; we can revisit Morgernstern (1963) as well as Federico and Tena (1991). Morgernstern had had a really pessimistic view on the reliability of this statistic source, but his main alert was focused on the trade balances, not in gross export or import values. Federico and Tena (1991) have demonstrated howaccuracy increases by aggregation, geographical and of product at the same time. But they still have a pessimistic view with relation to distribution questions, remarking that perhaps it will be more accurate to use import sources in this latest case. We have stated that the data set coming from foreign trade statistics for a sample in 1925, being it exporters or importers, it s a valuable tool for geography of trade patterns, although in some specific cases it needs some spatial adjustments.

On the accuracy of Latin American trade statistics: A nonparametric test for 1925

This paper proposes a nonparametric test in order to establish the level of accuracy of theforeign trade statistics of 17 Latin American countries when contrasted with the trade statistics of the main partners in 1925. The Wilcoxon Matched-Pairs Ranks test is used to determine whether the differences between the data registered by exporters and importers are meaningful, and if so, whether the differences are systematic in any direction. The paper tests for the reliability of the data registered for two homogeneous products, petroleum and coal, both in volume and value. The conclusion of the several exercises performed is that we cannot accept the existence of statistically significant differences between the data provided by the exporters and the registered by the importing countries in most cases. The qualitative historiography of Latin American describes its foreign trade statistics as mostly unusable. Our quantitative results contest this view.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Statistics of avalanches in martensitic transformations, II. Modelling

Using a scaling assumption, we propose a phenomenological model aimed to describe the joint probability distribution of two magnitudes A and T characterizing the spatial and temporal scales of a set of avalanches. The model also describes the correlation function of a sequence of such avalanches. As an example we study the joint distribution of amplitudes and durations of the acoustic emission signals observed in martensitic transformations [Vives et al., preceding paper, Phys. Rev. B 52, 12 644 (1995)].

Statistics of transverse mode turn-on dynamics in VCSEL's

The turn-on process of a multimode VCSEL is investigated from a statistical point of view. Special attention is paid to quantities such as time jitter and bit error rate. The single-mode performance of VCSEL¿s during current modulation is compared to that of edge-emitting lasers.