The Spread of free-riding behavior in a social network

We study a model where agents, located in a social network, decide whether to exert effort or not in experimenting with a new technology (or acquiring a new skill, innovating, etc.). We assume that agents have strong incentives to free ride on their neighbors' effort decisions. In the static version of the model efforts are chosen simultaneously. In equilibrium, agents exerting effort are never connected with each other and all other agents are connected with at least one agent exerting effort. We propose a mean-field dynamics in which agents choose in each period the best response to the last period's decisions of their neighbors. We characterize the equilibrium of such a dynamics and show how the pattern of free riders in the network depends on properties of the connectivity distribution.

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of a model for the spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous metapopulations

We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes

On the goodness of fit of Kirk's formula for spread option prices

In this paper we investigate the goodness of fit of the Kirk's approximation formula for spread option prices in the correlated lognormal framework. Towards this end, we use the Malliavin calculus techniques to find an expression for the short-time implied volatility skew of options with random strikes. In particular, we obtain that this skew is very pronounced in the case of spread options with extremely high correlations, which cannot be reproduced by a constant volatility approximation as in the Kirk's formula. This fact agrees with the empirical evidence. Numerical examples are given.

On the spread of the European catfish (Silurus glanis) in the Iberian Peninsula: first record in the Llobregat river basin

The first record of the European catfish (Silurus glanis L. 1758) introduced to the Llobregat river basin (NE Spain) is reported. We captured one individual of this silurid fish species (of a total of 541 fish) in La Baells reservoir on 30 August 2006. Given the low catchability of this fish species, the popularity among some anglers, and old rumours on this introduction, we hypothesize that this species has been present in the reservoir since a few years ago, despite we did not capture it in two previous surveys. The illegal introduction of this and other exotic species to other Iberian river basins should be prevented by the Spanish administration

Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants.

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.

Influence of label information on dark chocolate acceptability

The aim of the present work was to study how the information on product labels influences consumer expectations and their acceptance and purchase intention of dark chocolate. Six samples of dark choco- late, varying in brand (premium and store brand) and in type of product (regular dark chocolate, single cocoa origin dark chocolate and high percentage of cocoa dark chocolate), were evaluated by 109 con- sumers who scored their liking and purchase intention under three conditions: blind (only tasting the products), expected (observing product label information) and informed (tasting the products together with provision of the label information). In the expected condition, consumer liking was mainly affected by the brand. In the blind condition, differences in liking were due to the type of product; the samples with a high percentage of cocoa were those less preferred by consumers. Under the informed condition, liking of dark chocolates varied depending on both brand and type of product. Premium brand chocolates generated high consumer expectations of chocolate acceptability, which were fulfilled by the sensory characteristics of the products. Store brand chocolates created lower expectations, but when they were tasted they were as acceptable as premium chocolates. Claims of a high percentage of cocoa and single cocoa origin on labels did not generate higher expectations than regular dark chocolates.

Modelling the Evolution and Spread of HIV Immune Escape Mutants.

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

The relevance of theobromine for the beneficial effects of cocoa consumption.

Cocoa consumption began in America and in the mid sixteenth Century it quickly spread to Europe. Beyond being considered a pleasant habit due to its rich sweet lingering taste, chocolate was considered a good nutrient and even a medicine. Traditionally, health benefits of cocoa have been related with the high content of antioxidants of Theobroma cocoa beans. However, the direct psychoactive effect due to methylxanthines in cocoa is notable. Theobromine and caffeine, in the proportions found in cocoa, are responsible for the liking of the food/beverage. These compounds influence in a positive way our moods and our state of alertness. Theobromine, which is found in higher amounts than caffeine, seems to be behind several effects attributed to cocoa intake. The main mechanisms of action are inhibition of phosphodiesterases and blockade of adenosine receptors. Further mechanisms are being explored to better understand the health benefits associated to theobromine consumption. Unlike what happens in other mammals -pets- included, theobromine is safe for humans and has fewer unwanted effects than caffeine. Therefore, theobromine deserves attention as one of the most attractive molecules in cocoa.

Comparing Methods of Evaluating the Spread of Argentine Ants in Natural Habitats: Pitfall Traps vs. Baiting

Two methods of trapping Argentine ants in natural habitats are compared. both methods are used on the boundaries of an invaded area with the goal of assessing the spread of the invasion front. Pitfall surveys take longer to obtain results than bait surveys, but bait surveys are only a “snapshot” of the moment, with less chance of detecting Argentine ant workers. significant differences are found between the methods in terms of the number of traps occupied by Argentine ants, native ants or a combination of both. Differences in the richness of native ant species are found as well, showing that pitfall surveys are necessary to assess such richness. Despite this, no differences in the assessment of spread are found between the methods. bait surveys are an easier and faster method to assess the spread of Argentine ants, spread being one of the most important characteristics of biological invasions

Tracing the Origin and Spread of Agriculture in Europe

The origins of early farming and its spread to Europe have been the subject of major interest for some time. The main controversy today is over the nature of the Neolithic transition in Europe: the extent to which the spread was, for the most part, indigenous and animated by imitatio (cultural diffusion) or else was driven by an influx of dispersing populations (demic diffusion). We analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the transition using radiocarbon dates from 735 early Neolithic sites in Europe, the Near East, and Anatolia. We compute great-circle and shortest-path distances from each site to 35 possible agricultural centers of origin—ten are based on early sites in the Middle East and 25 arehypothetical locations set at 58 latitude/longitude intervals. We perform a linear fit of distance versus age (and viceversa) for each center. For certain centers, high correlation coefficients (R . 0.8) are obtained. This implies that a steady rate or speed is a good overall approximation for this historical development. The average rate of the Neolithic spread over Europe is 0.6–1.3 km/y (95% confidence interval). This is consistent with the prediction of demic diffusion(0.6–1.1 km/y). An interpolative map of correlation coefficients, obtained by using shortest-path distances, shows thatthe origins of agriculture were most likely to have occurred in the northern Levantine/Mesopotamian area

Time-Delayed Spread of Viruses in Growing Plaques

The spread of viruses in growing plaques predicted by classical models is greater than that measured experimentally. There is a widespread belief that this discrepancy is due to biological factors. Here we show that the observed speeds can be satisfactorily predicted by a purely physical model that takes into account the delay time due to virus reproduction inside infected cells. No free or adjustable parameters are used

Sharing the surplus: a just and efficient proposal for environments with externalities

Economic activities, both on the macro and micro level, often entail wide-spread externalities. This in turn leads to disputes regarding the compensation levels to the various parties affected. We propose a general, yet simple, method of deciding upon the distribution of the gains (costs) of cooperation in the presence of externalities. This method is shown to be the unique one satisfying several desirable properties. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of this method to resolve the sharing of benefits generated by international climate control agreements.

Spillovers and growth in a local interaction model

In this paper we aim at studying to what extent spillovers between firms may foster economic growth. The attention is addressed to the spillovers connected with the R&D activity that improves the quality of the goods firms supply. Our model develops a growth theory framework and we assume that firms spread around a circle. Our study assesses that spillovers between neighbors affect the probability of successful research for each of them. In particular, spillovers are the forces fuelling growth when, on the whole, firms turn out to be net receivers with respect to their neighbors.