Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Analisi espacial del canvi climàtic al continent europeu. Incerteses i exposicions principals

El canvi climàtic del segle XXI és una realitat, hi ha moltes evidències científiques que indiquen que l’escalfament del sistema climàtic és inequívoc. Malgrat això, també hi ha moltes incerteses respecte els impactes que pot comportar aquest canvi climàtic global. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la possible evolució futura de tres variables climàtiques, que són el rang de la temperatura diürna a prop de la superfície (DTR), la temperatura mitjana a prop de la superfície (MT) i la precipitació mensual (PL_mes) i valorar l’exposició que poden experimentar diferents cobertes del sòl i diferents regions biogeogràfiques del continent europeu davant d’aquests possibles patrons de canvi. Per això s’han utilitzat Models Climàtics Globals que fan projeccions de variables climàtiques que permeten preveure el possible clima futur. Mitjançant l’aplicatiu informàtic Tetyn s’han extret els paràmetres climàtics dels conjunts de dades del Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, del futur (TYN SC) i del passat (CRU TS). Les variables obtingudes s’han processat amb eines de sistemes d’informació geogràfica (SIG) per obtenir els patrons de canvi de les variables a cada coberta del sòl. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que hi ha una gran variabilitat, que augmenta amb el temps, entre els diferents models climàtics i escenaris considerats, que posa de manifest la incertesa associada a la modelització climàtica, a la generació d’escenaris d’emissions i a la naturalesa dinàmica i no determinista del sistema climàtic. Però en general, mostren que les glaceres seran una de les cobertes més exposades al canvi climàtic, i la mediterrània, una de les regions més vulnerables

Developing methodologies to allow the robust prediction dynamic context dominated by perturbations

El principal objectiu del projecte era desenvolupar millores conceptuals i metodològiques que permetessin una millor predicció dels canvis en la distribució de les espècies (a una escala de paisatge) derivats de canvis ambientals en un context dominat per pertorbacions. En un primer estudi, vàrem comparar l'eficàcia de diferents models dinàmics per a predir la distribució de l'hortolà (Emberiza hortulana). Els nostres resultats indiquen que un model híbrid que combini canvis en la qualitat de l'hàbitat, derivats de canvis en el paisatge, amb un model poblacional espacialment explícit és una aproximació adequada per abordar canvis en la distribució d'espècies en contextos de dinàmica ambiental elevada i una capacitat de dispersió limitada de l'espècie objectiu. En un segon estudi abordarem la calibració mitjançant dades de seguiment de models de distribució dinàmics per a 12 espècies amb preferència per hàbitats oberts. Entre les conclusions extretes destaquem: (1) la necessitat de que les dades de seguiment abarquin aquelles àrees on es produeixen els canvis de qualitat; (2) el biaix que es produeix en la estimació dels paràmetres del model d'ocupació quan la hipòtesi de canvi de paisatge o el model de qualitat d'hàbitat són incorrectes. En el darrer treball estudiarem el possible impacte en 67 espècies d’ocells de diferents règims d’incendis, definits a partir de combinacions de nivells de canvi climàtic (portant a un augment esperat de la mida i freqüència d’incendis forestals), i eficiència d’extinció per part dels bombers. Segons els resultats dels nostres models, la combinació de factors antropogènics del regim d’incendis, tals com l’abandonament rural i l’extinció, poden ser més determinants per als canvis de distribució que els efectes derivats del canvi climàtic. Els productes generats inclouen tres publicacions científiques, una pàgina web amb resultats del projecte i una llibreria per a l'entorn estadístic R.

Equations of hyperelliptic Shimura curves

We describe an algorithm that computes explicit models of hyperelliptic Shimura curves attached to an indefinite quaternion algebra over Q and Atkin-Lehner quotients of them. It exploits Cerednik-Drinfeld’s nonarchimedean uniformisation of Shimura curves, a formula of Gross and Zagier for the endomorphism ring of Heegner points over Artinian rings and the connection between Ribet’s bimodules and the specialization of Heegner points, as introduced in [21]. As an application, we provide a list of equations of Shimura curves and quotients of them obtained by our algorithm that had been conjectured by Kurihara.

Inclusion of soil erosion impacts in life cycle assessment on a global scale: application to energy crops in Spain

Purpose: Despite the fundamental role of ecosystem goods and services in sustaining human activities, there is no harmonized and internationally agreed method for including them in life cycle assessment (LCA). The main goal of this study was to develop a globally applicable and spatially resolved method for assessing land-use impacts on the erosion regulation ecosystem service.Methods: Soil erosion depends much on location. Thus, unlike conventional LCA, the endpoint method was regionalized at the grid-cell level (5 arc-minutes, approximately 10×10 km2) to reflect the spatial conditions of the site. Spatially explicit characterization factors were not further aggregated at broader spatial scales. Results and discussion: Life cycle inventory data of topsoil and topsoil organic carbon (SOC) losses were interpreted at the endpoint level in terms of the ultimate damage to soil resources and ecosystem quality. Human health damages were excluded from the assessment. The method was tested on a case study of five three-year agricultural rotations, two of them with energy crops, grown in several locations in Spain. A large variation in soil and SOC losses was recorded in the inventory step, depending on climatic and edaphic conditions. The importance of using a spatially explicit model and characterization factors is shown in the case study.Conclusions and outlook: The regionalized assessment takes into account the differences in soil erosion-related environmental impacts caused by the great variability of soils. Taking this regionalized framework as the starting point, further research should focus on testing the applicability of the method trough the complete life cycle of a product and on determining an appropriate spatial scale at which to aggregate characterization factors, in order to deal with data gaps on location of processes, especially in the background system. Additional research should also focus on improving reliability of the method by quantifying and, insofar as it is possible, reducing uncertainty.

Using spatially distributed parameters and multi-response objective functions to solve parameterization of complex applications of semi-distributed hydrological models

Application of semi-distributed hydrological models to large, heterogeneous watersheds deals with several problems. On one hand, the spatial and temporal variability in catchment features should be adequately represented in the model parameterization, while maintaining the model complexity in an acceptable level to take advantage of state-of-the-art calibration techniques. On the other hand, model complexity enhances uncertainty in adjusted model parameter values, therefore increasing uncertainty in the water routing across the watershed. This is critical for water quality applications, where not only streamflow, but also a reliable estimation of the surface versus subsurface contributions to the runoff is needed. In this study, we show how a regularized inversion procedure combined with a multiobjective function calibration strategy successfully solves the parameterization of a complex application of a water quality-oriented hydrological model. The final value of several optimized parameters showed significant and consistentdifferences across geological and landscape features. Although the number of optimized parameters was significantly increased by the spatial and temporal discretization of adjustable parameters, the uncertainty in water routing results remained at reasonable values. In addition, a stepwise numerical analysis showed that the effects on calibration performance due to inclusion of different data types in the objective function could be inextricably linked. Thus caution should be taken when adding or removing data from an aggregated objective function.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

From lattice-gas models to nonlinear diffusion models: A derivation of macroscopic equations and fluctuations

We derive nonlinear diffusion equations and equations containing corrections due to fluctuations for a coarse-grained concentration field. To deal with diffusion coefficients with an explicit dependence on the concentration values, we generalize the Van Kampen method of expansion of the master equation to field variables. We apply these results to the derivation of equations of phase-separation dynamics and interfacial growth instabilities.

Intensity correlation functions of dye lasers: Comparison of colored-gain-noise and colored-loss-noise models

The intensity correlation functions C(t) for the colored-gain-noise model of dye lasers are analyzed and compared with those for the loss-noise model. For correlation times ¿ larger than the deterministic relaxation time td, we show with the use of the adiabatic approximation that C(t) values coincide for both models. For small correlation times we use a method that provides explicit expressions of non-Markovian correlation functions, approximating simultaneously short- and long-time behaviors. Comparison with numerical simulations shows excellent results simultaneously for short- and long-time regimes. It is found that, when the correlation time of the noise increases, differences between the gain- and loss-noise models tend to disappear. The decay of C(t) for both models can be described by a time scale that approaches the deterministic relaxation time. However, in contrast with the loss-noise model, a secondary time scale remains for large times for the gain-noise model, which could allow one to distinguish between both models.

Stochastic semiclassical cosmological models

We consider the classical stochastic fluctuations of spacetime geometry induced by quantum fluctuations of massless nonconformal matter fields in the early Universe. To this end, we supplement the stress-energy tensor of these fields with a stochastic part, which is computed along the lines of the Feynman-Vernon and Schwinger-Keldysh techniques; the Einstein equation is therefore upgraded to a so-called Einstein-Langevin equation. We consider in some detail the conformal fluctuations of flat spacetime and the fluctuations of the scale factor in a simple cosmological model introduced by Hartle, which consists of a spatially flat isotropic cosmology driven by radiation and dust.

Diffusive transport in spatially periodic hydrodynamic flows

We calculate the effective diffusion coefficient in convective flows which are well described by one spatial mode. We use an expansion in the distance from onset and homogenization methods to obtain an explicit expression for the transport coefficient. We find that spatially periodic fluid flow enhances the molecular diffusion D by a term proportional to D-1. This enhancement should be easy to observe in experiments, since D is a small number.

Parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models: an empirical application to the female labour force in Portugal

This comment corrects the errors in the estimation process that appear in Martins (2001). The first error is in the parametric probit estimation, as the previously presented results do not maximize the log-likelihood function. In the global maximum more variables become significant. As for the semiparametric estimation method, the kernel function used in Martins (2001) can take on both positive and negative values, which implies that the participation probability estimates may be outside the interval [0,1]. We have solved the problem by applying local smoothing in the kernel estimation, as suggested by Klein and Spady (1993).

How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.