The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Genomics of wine yeast: functional analysis of new and variable genes

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a l’Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, França, entre 2007 i 2009. Saccharomyces cerevisiae ha estat el llevat utilitzat durant mil.lenis en l'elaboració de vins. Tot i així, es té poc coneixement sobre les pressions de selecció que han actuat en la modelització del genoma dels llevats vínics. S’ha seqüenciat el genoma d'una soca vínica comercial, EC1118, obtenint 31 supercontigs que cobreixen el 97% del genoma de la soca de referència, S288c. S’ha trobat que el genoma de la soca vínica es diferencia bàsicament en la possessió de 3 regions úniques que contenen 34 gens implicats en funcions claus per al procés fermentatiu. A banda, s’han dut a terme estudis de filogènia i synteny (ordre dels gens) que mostren que una d'aquestes tres regions és pròxima a una espècie relacionada amb el gènere Saccharomyces, mentre que les altres dos regions tenen un origen no-Saccharomyces. S’ha identificat mitjançant PCR i seqüenciació a Zygosaccharomyces bailii, una espècie contaminant de les fermentacions víniques, com a espècie donadora d'una de les dues regions. Les hibridacions naturals entre soques de diferents espècies dins del grup Saccharomyces sensu stricto ja han estat descrites. El treball és el primer que presenta hibridacions entre espècies Saccharomyces i no-Saccharomyces (Z. bailii, en aquest cas). També s’assenyala que les noves regions es troben freqüent i diferencialment presents entre els clades de S. cerevisiae, trobant-se de manera gairebé exclusiva en el grup de les soques víniques, suggerint que es tracta d'una adquisició recent de transferència gènica. En general, les dades demostren que el genoma de les soques víniques pateix una constant remodelació mitjançant l'adquisició de gens exògens. Els resultats suggereixen que aquests processos estan afavorits per la proximitat ecològica i estan implicats en l'adaptació molecular de les soques víniques a les condicions d'elevada concentració en sucres, poc nitrogen i elevades concentracions en etanol.

Natural abundance of stable isotopes (15N and 13C) and isotopic fractionation of sea bream muscle as markers of food and culture conditions and its relationship with metabolic and proteomic analyses

Els isòtops estables com a traçadors de la cadena alimentària, s'han utilitzat per caracteritzar la relació entre els consumidors i els seus aliments, ja que el fraccionament isotòpic implica una discriminació en contra de certs isòtops. Però les anàlisis d'isòtops estables (SIA), també es poden dur a terme en peixos cultivats amb dietes artificials, com la orada (Sparus aurata), la especie más cultivada en el Mediterráneo. Canvis en l'abundància natural d'isòtops estables (13C i 15N) en els teixits i les seves reserves poden reflectir els canvis en l'ús i reciclatge dels nutrients ja que els enzims catabòlics implicats en els processos de descarboxilació i desaminació mostren una preferència pels isòtops més lleugers. Per tant, aquestes anàlisis ens poden proporcionar informació útil sobre l'estat nutricional i metabòlic dels peixos. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte va ser determinar la capacitat dels isòtops estables per ser utilitzats com a marcadors potencials de la capacitat de creixement i condicions de cria de l'orada. En aquest sentit, les anàlisis d'isòtops estables s'han combinat amb altres metabòlics (activitats citocrom-c-oxidasa, COX, i citrat sintasa, CS) i els paràmetres de creixement (ARN/ADN). El conjunt de resultats obtinguts en els diferents estudis realitzats en aquest projecte demostra que el SIA, en combinació amb altres paràmetres metabòlics, pot servir com una eina eficaç per discriminar els peixos amb millor potencial de creixement, així com a marcador sensible de l'estat nutricional i d'engreix. D'altra banda, la combinació de l'anàlisi d'isòtops estables amb les eines emergents, com ara tècniques de proteòmica (2D-PAGE), ens proporciona nous coneixements sobre els canvis metabòlics que ocorren en els músculs dels peixos durant l‟increment del creixement muscular induït per l'exercici.

A Typology of agents and subjects of regional cooperation: the experience of the Mediterranean Arch

El document és el resultat d'una investigació més àmplia sobre la construcció de l'Arc Mediterrani. El seu objectiu és posar en relleu el notable grau de desenvolupament de la cooperació regional en la matèria, a través d'una anàlisi detallada de les diferents figures institucionalitzades de cooperació territorial existents (o haver existit) a la zona. L'anàlisi s'ha dut a terme des d'un punt de vista temàtic, basat en els objectius prioritaris d'aquestes institucions. En concret, les xifres estudiades es limiten a les institucions formals o les associacions de col · laboració de caràcter específic, com ara euroregions o les agrupacions europees d'interès econòmic, entès com les figures de major institucionalització dels espais transnacionals a nivell europeu. En canvi, hem deixat de banda altres figures, com Interreg (finançat pel FEDER), ja que no són entitats correctament. Encara que de vegades els acords de cooperació establerts per als projectes d'Interreg han donat lloc a algunes de les entitats estudiades aquí.

Growth accounting in items of turbulence and death: efficiency, technology, capital accumulation and human capital 1929-1950

We employ a non-parametrical approach to growth accounting (Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA) to disentangle the proximate sources of labour productivity growth in 41 nationsbetween 1929 and 1950 by decomposing productivity growth into four components:technological change; efficiency catch-up (movements towards the production frontier),capital accumulation and human capital accumulation. We show that efficiency catch-upgenerally explains productivity growth, whereas technological change and factoraccumulation were limited and distorted by the effects of war. War clearly hamperedefficiency. Moreover, an unbalanced ratio of human capital to physical capital (a gap to thetechnological leader) was crucial for efficiency catching-up.

The effect of pesticides and alien invesive species on soil biota and litter decomposition rates in a Mediterrean-climate ecosystem of Western Australia

Ecosystems are complex systems and changing one of their components can alter their whole functioning. Decomposition and biodiversity are two factors that play a role in this stability, and it is vital to study how these two factors are interrelated and how other factors, whether of human origin or not, can affect them. This study has tested different hypotheses regarding the effects of pesticides and invasive species on the biodiversity of the soil fauna and litter decomposition rate. Decomposition was measured using the litterbags technique. Our results indicate that pesticides had a negative effect on decomposition whereas invasive species increased decomposition rate. At the same time, the diversity of the soil biota was unaffected by either factor. These results allow us to better understand the response of important ecosystem functions to human‐induced alterations, in order to mitigate harmful effects or restore them wherever necessary.

The First World War and Coal Trade Geography in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1890-1930

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e., the USA, Great Britain, and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here, we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

Athlete endorsement as a marketing strategy: a case study of Nike and Michael Jordan

Les empreses intenten obrir mercats nous constantment, aconseguint atraure nous clients objectiu i augmentar el reconeixement de la marca. Aquest treball investiga el cóm i per què el patrocini d'atletes, per a que aquests representin els productes d'una empresa, ja que és una eina cada vegada més àmplia i popular en el màrqueting mix de les empreses. Michael Jordan, un estel retirada de bàsquet, ha rebut molta atenció dels mitjans publicitaris i ha representat sota patrocini a diversos productes. Especialment el seu contracte de patrocini amb Nike, Inc. s'ha convertit en un excel·lent cas d'estudi per analitzar la tendència actual que suposa patrocinar atletes en el mercat internacional. Els resultats d'aquest cas d'estudi ajuden a entendre els factors que poden influir en èxit de les empreses quan decideixen patrocinar a un atleta com a part de la seva estratègia de màrqueting.