Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Methods and representativeness of European surveys in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

Background: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 8–18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. Results: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%–91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78–2.97). Conclusion: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Reconstructing snow avalanches in the Southeastern Pyrenees

A regional study of snow avalanche processes was undertaken in the SE Pyrenees. Dendrogeomorphology was used to date and reconstruct large-scale snow avalanche events that occurred in the last four decades. Dendrochronological analyses yielded the dates of nine winters when avalanches occurred in the recent past in six studied avalanche paths. Some of these avalanches were already known, but others had not been documented. In one case, the existing avalanche path map was improved with the dendrogeomorphological information of a larger past event. As a result of the dendrogeomorphological analyses, evidence for three regional-scale major avalanche years was identified in the SE Pyrenees from 1971 to 2004: 1971¿1972, 1995¿1996 and 2002¿2003. The specific synoptic atmospheric situations and the most likely nivometeorological and snowpack conditions that released these major avalanches were determined using weather data for the seasons of major avalanche releases. In 1971¿1972 the snow avalanche episode was characterized by a deep trough crossing the Pyrenees. In 1995¿1996 a variety of meteorological situations produced several episodes of major avalanches. In 2002¿2003 the more significant of two episodes was attributed to a north advection pumping an arctic air mass over the Pyrenees. The 1995¿1996 avalanche season proved to be the most notable in the four past decades in the Pyrenees.

On the complementariness of infrasound and seismic sensors for monitoring snow avalanches

The paper analyses and compares infrasonic and seismic data from snow avalanches monitored at the Vallée de la Sionne test site in Switzerland from 2009 to 2010. Using a combination of seismic and infrasound sensors, it is possible not only to detect a snow avalanche but also to distinguish between the different flow regimes and to analyse duration, average speed (for sections of the avalanche path) and avalanche size. Different sensitiveness of the seismic and infrasound sensors to the avalanche regimes is shown. Furthermore, the high amplitudes observed in the infrasound signal for one avalanche were modelled assuming that the suspension layer of the avalanche acts as a moving turbulent sound source. Our results show reproducibility for similar avalanches on the same avalanche path.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

The snow storm of the 8th of March 2010 in Barcelona: a paradigmatic case

A heavy precipitation event swept over Catalonia (NE Spain) on 8 March 2010, with a total amount that ex- ceeded 100mm locally and snowfall of more than 60cm near the coast. Unusual for this region and at this time of the year, this snowfall event affected mainly the coastal region and was accompanied by thunderstorms and strong wind gusts in some areas. Most of the damage was due to"wet snow", a kind of snow that favours accretion on power lines and causes line-breaking and subsequent interruption of the electricity supply. This paper conducts an interdisciplinary analysis of the event to show its great societal impact and the role played by the recently developed social networks (it has been called the first"Snowfall 2.0"), as well to analyse the meteorologi- cal factors associated with the major damage, and to propose an indicator that could summarise them. With this aim, the paper introduces the event and its societal impact and com- pares it with other important snowfalls that have affected the Catalan coast, using the PRESSGAMA database. The sec- ond part of the paper shows the event"s main meteorological features and analyses the near-surface atmospheric variables responsible for the major damage through the application of the SAFRAN (Système d"analyse fournissant des renseigne- ments atmosphériques à la neige) mesoscale analysis, which, together with the proposed"wind, wet-snow index" (WWSI), allows to estimate the severity of the event. This snow storm provides further evidence of our vulnerability to natural haz- ards and highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary ap- proach in analysing societal impact and the meteorological factors responsible for this kind of event.

Study of Johnsons Glacier (Livingston Island, Antarctica) by means of shallow ice cores and their tephra and by analysis of 137Cs content

With the aim of monitoring the dynamics of the Livingston Island ice cap, the Departament de Geodinàmica i Geofísica of the Universitat de Barcelona began ye a r ly surveys in the austral summer of 1994-95 on Johnsons Glacier. During this field campaign 10 shallow ice cores were sampled with a manual ve rtical ice-core drilling machine. The objectives were: i) to detect the tephra layer accumulated on the glacier surface, attributed to the 1970 Deception Island pyroclastic eruption, today interstratified; ii) to verify wheter this layer might serve as a reference level; iii) to measure the 1 3 7Cs radio-isotope concentration accumulated in the 1965 snow stratum; iv) to use the isochrone layer as a mean of verifying the age of the 1970 tephra layer; and, v) to calculate both the equilibrium line of the glacier and average mass balance over the last 28 years (1965-1993). The stratigr a p hy of the cores, their cumulative density curves and the isothermal ice temperatures recorded confi rm that Johnsons Glacier is a temperate glacier. Wi n d, solar radiation heating and liquid water are the main agents controlling the ve rtical and horizontal redistribution of the volcanic and cryoclastic particles that are sedimented and remain interstratified within the g l a c i e r. It is because of this redistribution that the 1970 tephra layer does not always serve as a ve ry good reference level. The position of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) in 1993, obtained by the 1 3 7Cs spectrometric analysis, varies from about 200 m a.s.l. to 250 m a.s.l. This indicates a rising trend in the equilibrium line altitude from the beginning of the 1970s to the present day. The va rying slope orientation of Johnsons Glacier relative to the prevailing NE wind gives rise to large local differences in snow accumulation, which locally modifies the equilibrium line altitude. In the cores studied, 1 3 7Cs appears to be associated with the 1970 tephra laye r. This indicates an intense ablation episode throughout the sampled area (at least up to 330 m a.s.l), which probably occurred synchronically to the 1970 tephra deposition or later. A rough estimate of the specific mass balance reveals a considerable accumulation gradient related to the increase with altitude.

Evaluation of a snow avalanche possibly triggered by a local earthquake at Vallée de la Sionne, Switzerland

Snow avalanches are moving sources of infrasonic and seismic energy. They can be triggered by many different mechanisms that include the shaking produced by earthquakes. The forces induced by an earthquake can cause an increase in the load down the slope and can also decrease the shear strength and both effects can cause the release of an avalanche. This phenomenon represents an important hazard associated with earthquakes in snow-covered mountain areas with high seismicity.

Serological and virological surveys of the influenza A viruses in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins

To evaluate the avian influenza virus (AIV) circulation in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguins we carried out a serosurvey on six species from Livingston, Marion and Gough islands. Seropositivity against AIV was performed on serum samples using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and haemagglutination and neuraminidase inhibition assays. Some oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs were also assayed to detect influenza virus genomes by real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Overall, 12.1% (n = 140) penguins were seropositive to AIV. By species, we detected 5% (n = 19) and 11% (n = 18) seroprevalence in sub-Antarctic rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes spp.) from Gough and Marion islands, respectively, 42% (n = 33) seroprevalence in macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chysolophus Brandt), but no positives in the three other species, gentoo (Pygoscelis papua Forster; n = 25) and chinstrap penguins (P. antarctica Forster; n = 16), from Livingston Island and king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus Miller; n = 27) from Marion Island. While seropositivity reflected previous exposure to the AIV, the influenza genome was not detected. Our results indicate that AIV strains have circulated in penguin species in the sub-Antarctic region, but further studies are necessary to determine the precise role that such penguin species play in AIV epidemiology and if this circulation is species (or genus) specific.

Efecte del canvi climàtic sobre la ramaderia ecològica al Pirineu Occidental de Catalunya

Per tal d’arribar a la conclusió de si realment el Canvi climàtic és un factor limitant en el de venir de la Ramaderia ecològica al Pirineu Català, es proposen un seguit d’enquestes als afectats reals; els ramaders. La intenció és veure la percepció que se’n té i comparar-la amb la realitat de canvi climàtic, i més en zones d’alta muntanya: pujada de temperatures, disminució de la pluja i sequera, i desgel i tardança de les nevades. També el tema de l’erosió del sòl és de vital importància pel seu tractament. Cal desenvolupar una sèrie de millores per combatre els problemes de canvis climàtics, tot i que no són l’únic mal de cap del ramaders.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated.