Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Orientación y medios de comunicación

El artículo presenta un marco amplio de la orientación psicopedagógica en el que se pueden distinguir los diferentes modelos, áreas, contextos y agentes. El trabajo hace un recorrido por las contribuciones y los usos de los medios de comunicación y de las nuevas tecnologías al servicio de la orientación. En este sentido, se ofrece un listado de recursos existente en la Red referidos a la información académica y profesional que cualquier interesado del tema puede acceder.

Self-expandable metal stents in the treatment of acute esophageal variceal bleeding.

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a life-threatening complication in patients with cirrhosis. Hemostatic therapy of AVB includes early administration of vasoactive drugs that should be combined with endoscopic therapy, preferably banding ligation. However, failure to control bleeding or early rebleed within 5 days still occurs in 15-20% of patients with AVB. In these cases, a second endoscopic therapy may be attempted (mild bleeding in a hemodynamically stable patient) or we can use a balloon tamponade as a bridge to definitive derivative treatment (i.e., a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt). Esophageal balloon tamponade provides initial control in up to 80% of AVB, but it carries a high risk of major complications, especially in cases of long duration of tamponade (>24 h) and when tubes are inserted by inexperienced staff. Preliminary reports suggest that self-expandable covered esophageal metallic stents effectively control refractory AVB (i.e., ongoing bleeding despite pharmacological and endoscopic therapy or massive bleeding precluding endoscopic therapy) with a low incidence of complications. Thus, covered self-expanding metal stents may represent an alternative to the Sengstaken-Blakemore balloon for the temporary control of bleeding in treatment failures. Further studies are required to determine the role of this new device in AVB.