Transition modes and institutional outcomes in El Salvador and Guatemala

Institutions affect key dimensions of the political process –policy, stability, and conflict. The choice of institutions is thus consequential. I argue that transition modes affect the choice of institutions in predictable and systematic ways. The more balanced power is between the two main bargaining forces –regime elite and opposition– the likelier that the resulting institutions will be pluralistic. Contrarily, the more unbalanced power is in favour of regime elites vis a vis the opposition, the likelier that institutions will be majoritarian. The argument is tested for El Salvador and Guatemala.

Settlement in tax evasion prosecution

It is often argued that even if optimal ex-post, settlement dilutes deterrence ex-ante. We analyze the interest for the tax authority of committing, ex-ante, to a settlement strategy. We show that to commit to the use of settlements is ex-ante optimal when the tax authority receives signals that provide statistical information about the taxpayers' true tax liability. The more informative the signal, the larger the additional expected evenue raised by the tax authority when using settlement as a policy tool.

Bidding for the surplus: realizing efficient outcomes in general economic environments

In this paper, we consider two classes of economic environments. In the first type, agents are faced with the task of providing local public goods that will benefit some or all of them. In the second type, economic activity takes place via formation of links. Agents need both to both form a network and decide how to share the output generated. For both scenarios, we suggest a bidding mechanism whereby agents bid for the right to decide upon the organization of the economic activity. The subgame perfect equilibria of this game generate efficient outcomes.

Freedom of choice as control over outcomes

As interactions between individuals are introduced into the freedom of choice literature by the mean of game forms, new issues appear. In particular, in this paper it is argued that individuals face uncertainty with respect to outcomes as they lose the control they implicitely exert over options in the opportunity set framework. A criterion is proposed as to compare alternative game forms in terms of the control they offer to individuals. The CardMin criterion suggests that any game form should be judged on the basis of the strategy offering the lowest number of pairwise different outcomes. An axiomatic characterization is provided in the case of two individuals.

ALK rearrangement in a selected population of advanced non small cell lung cancer patients. FISH and inmunohistochemistry diagnostic methods, prevalence and clinical outcomes

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangements represents a new driver oncogenic event in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ALK positive patients account for a 1-7% of NSCLC patients. The objective of this study is to know the prevalence and clinical characteristics of ALK positive patients in a cohort of NSCLC patients and to compare inmunohistochemistry with D5F3 monoclonal antibody with gold standard method fluorescence in situ hybridation

Does Warfare Matter? Severity, Duration, and Outcomes of Civil Wars

Importa si una guerra civil es combat com un conflicte irregular, convencional o simètric no convencional? En altres paraules, tenen les “tecnologies de la rebel·lió” un impacte sobre la gravetat d’una guerra, la seva durada o el seu resultat? Aquest treball mostra que els conflictes irregulars duren més que els altres tipus de conflicte, mentre els convencionals tendeixen a ser més greus en termes de letalitat al camp de batalla. D’altra banda, els conflictes irregulars tendeixen a ser guanyats pels governs, mentre els altres són més propensos a acabar en empat. Substancialment, aquests resultats ens ajuden a donar sentit a l’evolució de les guerres civils, les quals tendeixen a ser més curtes, més intenses i més difícils per als governs. Teòricament, aquests resultats donen suport a la importància de la tecnologia de rebel·lió a l’estudiar la gravetat, la durada i els resultats de les guerres civils; a més, contribueixen a una millor comprensió de la contribució històrica de la guerra irregular a la construcció de l’Estat i al canvi social.

Diversity and regional inequalities: Assessing the outcomes of the Spanish 'System of Health Care Services'

The consolidation of a universal health system coupled with a process of regionaldevolution characterise the institutional reforms of the National Health System(NHS) in Spain in the last two decades. However, scarce empirical evidence hasbeen reported on the effects of both changes in health inputs, outputs andoutcomes, both at the country and at the regional level. This paper examinesthe empirical evidence on regional diversity, efficiency and inequality ofthese changes in the Spanish NHS using cross-correlation, panel data andexpenditure decomposition analysis. Results suggest that besides significantheterogeneity, once we take into account region-specific needs there is evidenceof efficiency improvements whilst inequalities in inputs and outcomes, althoughmore visible , do not appear to have increased in the last decade. Therefore,the devolution process in the Spanish Health System offers an interesting casefor the experimentation of health reforms related to regional diversity butcompatible with the nature of a public NHS, with no sizeable regionalinequalitiest.

Product market deregulation and labor market outcomes

We consider the dynamic relationship between product market entry regulationand equilibrium unemployment. The main theoretical contribution is combininga Mortensen-Pissarides model with monopolistic competition in the goods marketand individual wage bargaining. Product market competition affects unemploymentvia two channels: the output expansion effect and a countervailing effect dueto a hiring externality. Competition is then linked to barriers to entry. Acalibrated model compares a high-regulation European regime to a low-regulationAnglo-American one. Our quantitative analysis suggests that under individualbargaining, no more than half a percentage point of European unemployment ratescan be attributed to entry regulation.

Experiencing simulated outcomes

Whereas much literature has documented difficulties in making probabilistic inferences, it hasalso emphasized the importance of task characteristics in determining judgmental accuracy.Noting that people exhibit remarkable efficiency in encoding frequency information sequentially,we construct tasks that exploit this ability by requiring people to experience the outcomes ofsequentially simulated data. We report two experiments. The first involved seven well-knownprobabilistic inference tasks. Participants differed in statistical sophistication and answered withand without experience obtained through sequentially simulated outcomes in a design thatpermitted both between- and within-subject analyses. The second experiment involvedinterpreting the outcomes of a regression analysis when making inferences for investmentdecisions. In both experiments, even the statistically naïve make accurate probabilistic inferencesafter experiencing sequentially simulated outcomes and many prefer this presentation format. Weconclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications.

A house price index defined in the potential outcomes framework

Current methods for constructing house price indices are based on comparisons of sale prices of residential properties sold two or more times and on regression of the sale prices on the attributes of the properties and of their locations. The two methods have well recognised deficiencies, selection bias and model assumptions, respectively. We introduce a new method based on propensity score matching. The average house prices for two periods are compared by selecting pairs of properties, one sold in each period, that are as similar on a set of available attributes (covariates) as is feasible to arrange. The uncertainty associated with such matching is addressed by multiple imputation, framing the problem as involving missing values. The method is applied to aregister of transactions ofresidential properties in New Zealand and compared with the established alternatives.

Strike outcomes and wage settlements in Spain

This paper analyzes collective bargaining using Spanish firm level data. Centralto the analysis are the joint determination of wage and strike outcomes in adynamic framework and the possibility of segregate wage equation for strike andnon-strike outcomes. Conditional to strikes taking place, we confirm a negativerelationship between strike duration and wage changes in a dynamic context.Furthermore, we find selection in wage equations induced by the strike outcome.In this sense, the possibility of wage determination processes being differentin strike and non-strike samples is not rejected by the data. In particular,wage dynamics are of opposite sing in both strike and non-strike equations.Finally, we find evidence of a 0.33 percentage points wage change strike premium.

Some like it hot: temperature and acidification modulate larval development and settlement of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula

We studied the effects of temperature and pH on larval development, settlement and juvenile survival of a Mediterranean population of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula. Three temperatures (16, 17.5 and 19 °C) were tested at present pH conditions (pHT 8.1). At 19 °C, two pH levels were compared to reflect present average (pHT 8.1) and near-future average conditions (pHT 7.7, expected by 2100). Larvae were reared for 52-days to achieve the full larval development and complete the metamorphosis to the settler stage. We analyzed larval survival, growth, morphology and settlement success. We also tested the carry-over effect of acidification on juvenile survival after 3 days. Our results showed that larval survival and size significantly increased with temperature. Acidification resulted in higher survival rates and developmental delay. Larval morphology was significantly altered by low temperatures, which led to narrower larvae with relatively shorter skeletal rods, but larval morphology was only marginally affected by acidification. No carry-over effects between larvae and juveniles were detected in early settler survival, though settlers from larvae reared at pH 7.7 were significantly smaller than their counterparts developed at pH 8.1. These results suggest an overall positive effect of environmental parameters related to global change on the reproduction of A. lixula, and reinforce the concerns about the increasing negative impact on shallow Mediterranean ecosystems of this post-glacial colonizer.

Evaluating the effects of decentralization on educational outcomes in Spain

[cat] Diversos arguments derivats de la teoria del federalisme fiscal suggereixen que la descentralització pot portar a majors nivells d’eficiència en la provisió de béns i serveis publics. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi és contrastar aquesta hipòtesi mitjançant l’avaluació dels efectes de la descentralització sobre els resultats educatius a Espanya. Els resultats educatius es mesuren d’acord amb la taxa de supervivència, que es defineix com el nombre d’estudiants que es matricula en educació secundària no obligatòria en relació als alumnes matriculats a l’últim curs d’educació obligatòria durant l’any acadèmic anterior.

Evaluating the effects of decentralization on educational outcomes in Spain

[cat] Diversos arguments derivats de la teoria del federalisme fiscal suggereixen que la descentralització pot portar a majors nivells d’eficiència en la provisió de béns i serveis publics. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi és contrastar aquesta hipòtesi mitjançant l’avaluació dels efectes de la descentralització sobre els resultats educatius a Espanya. Els resultats educatius es mesuren d’acord amb la taxa de supervivència, que es defineix com el nombre d’estudiants que es matricula en educació secundària no obligatòria en relació als alumnes matriculats a l’últim curs d’educació obligatòria durant l’any acadèmic anterior.