Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Mean first-passage times for systems driven by gamma and McFadden dichotomous noise

We consider mean first-passage times (MFPTs) for systems driven by non-Markov gamma and McFadden dichotomous noises. A simplified derivation is given of the underlying integral equations and the theory for ordinary renewal processes is extended to modified and equilibrium renewal processes. The exact results are compared with the MFPT for Markov dichotomous noise and with the results of Monte Carlo simulations.

The Oncoprotein BCL11A Binds to Orphan Nuclear Receptor TLX and Potentiates its Transrepressive Function

Nuclear orphan receptor TLX (NR2E1) functions primarily as a transcriptional repressor and its pivotal role in brain development, glioblastoma, mental retardation and retinopathologies make it an attractive drug target. TLX is expressed in the neural stem cells (NSCs) of the subventricular zone and the hippocampus subgranular zone, regions with persistent neurogenesis in the adult brain, and functions as an essential regulator of NSCs maintenance and self-renewal. Little is known about the TLX social network of interactors and only few TLX coregulators are described. To identify and characterize novel TLX-binders and possible coregulators, we performed yeast-two-hybrid (Y2H) screens of a human adult brain cDNA library using different TLX constructs as baits. Our screens identified multiple clones of Atrophin-1 (ATN1), a previously described TLX interactor. In addition, we identified an interaction with the oncoprotein and zinc finger transcription factor BCL11A (CTIP1/Evi9), a key player in the hematopoietic system and in major blood-related malignancies. This interaction was validated by expression and coimmunoprecipitation in human cells. BCL11A potentiated the transrepressive function of TLX in an in vitro reporter gene assay. Our work suggests that BCL11A is a novel TLX coregulator that might be involved in TLX-dependent gene regulation in the brain.

JNK controls the onset of mitosis of planarian stem cells and triggers apoptotic cell death required for regeneration and remodeling

Regeneration of lost tissues depends on the precise interpretation of molecular signals that control and coordinate the onset of proliferation, cellular differentiation and cell death. However, the nature of those molecular signals and the mechanisms that integrate the cellular responses remain largely unknown. The planarian flatworm is a unique model in which regeneration and tissue renewal can be comprehensively studied in vivo. The presence of a population of adult pluripotent stem cells combined with the ability to decode signaling after wounding enable planarians to regenerate a complete, correctly proportioned animal within a few days after any kind of amputation, and to adapt their size to nutritional changes without compromising functionality. Here, we demonstrate that the stress-activated c-jun-NH2-kinase (JNK) links wound-induced apoptosis to the stem cell response during planarian regeneration. We show that JNK modulates the expression of wound-related genes, triggers apoptosis and attenuates the onset of mitosis in stem cells specifically after tissue loss. Furthermore, in pre-existing body regions, JNK activity is required to establish a positive balance between cell death and stem cell proliferation to enable tissue renewal, remodeling and the maintenance of proportionality. During homeostatic degrowth, JNK RNAi blocks apoptosis, resulting in impaired organ remodeling and rescaling. Our findings indicate that JNK-dependent apoptotic cell death is crucial to coordinate tissue renewal and remodeling required to regenerate and to maintain a correctly proportioned animal. Hence, JNK might act as a hub, translating wound signals into apoptotic cell death, controlled stem cell proliferation and differentiation, all of which are required to coordinate regeneration and tissue renewal.

Organic carbon and nutrient (P, N) concentrations of water and sediment in several aquatic environment types of a Mediterranean coastal wetland (Empordà Wetlands, NE Iberian Peninsula)

Total sediment and water organic carbon and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations of different environment types of a Mediterranean coastal wetland (temporary and brackish, temporary and freshwater, semi-permanent and brackish, and permanent and brackish basins) were analysed during two hydroperiods. A nitrogen limitation was found for both sediment and water. The total organic carbon concentration of the water was significantly related to the water level, which varies throughout the hydroperiods. In contrast, the total organic carbon concentration of the sediment was not related to water level. However, significant differences in total organic carbon of the sediment were found between hydroperiods. On the other hand, total organic carbon of the sediment varied spatially, being higher in temporary brackish basins with lower sand content, and lower in permanent and semi-permanent brackish basins with higher sand content

Modeling usage of medical care services: the medical expenditure panel survey data, 1996-2000

We explore the determinants of usage of six different types of health care services, using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, years 1996-2000. We apply a number of models for univariate count data, including semiparametric, semi-nonparametric and finite mixture models. We find that the complexity of the model that is required to fit the data well depends upon the way in which the data is pooled across sexes and over time, and upon the characteristics of the usage measure. Pooling across time and sexes is almost always favored, but when more heterogeneous data is pooled it is often the case that a more complex statistical model is required.

Management of corn stalk waste as reinforcement for polypropylene injection moulded composites

The main objective of this study was the management of corn stalk waste as reinforcement for polypropylene (PP) injection moulded composites as an alternative to wood flour and fibers. In the first step, corn stalk waste was subjected to various treatments, and four different corn stalk derivatives (flour and fibers) able to be used as reinforcement of composite materials were prepared and characterized. These derivatives are corn stalk flour, thermo-mechanical, semi-chemical, and chemical fibers. They were characterized in terms of their yield, lignin content, Kappa number, fiber length/diameter ratio, fines, coarseness, viscosity, and the length at the break of a standard sheet of paper. Results showed that the corn stalk derivatives have different physico-chemical properties. In the second step, the prepared flour and fibers were explored as a reinforcing element for PP composites. Coupled and non-coupled PP composites were prepared and tested for tensile properties. For overall trend, with the addition of a coupling agent, tensile properties of composites significantly improved, as compared with non-coupled samples. In addition, a morphological study revealed the positive effect of the coupling agent on the interfacial bonding. The composites prepared with semichemical fiber gave better results in comparison with the rest of the corn stalk derivatives due to its chemical characteristics

Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models

We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated bya limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients often have wrong signs; impulse responses and variance decompositions give misleadingrepresentations of the dynamics. Explanations for the results and suggestions for macroeconomic practice are provided.

The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

Blind channel estimation and data detection using hidden Markov models theory

In this correspondence, we propose applying the hiddenMarkov models (HMM) theory to the problem of blind channel estimationand data detection. The Baum–Welch (BW) algorithm, which is able toestimate all the parameters of the model, is enriched by introducingsome linear constraints emerging from a linear FIR hypothesis on thechannel. Additionally, a version of the algorithm that is suitable for timevaryingchannels is also presented. Performance is analyzed in a GSMenvironment using standard test channels and is found to be close to thatobtained with a nonblind receiver.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

A Markov chain analysis of emotional exchange in voice-to-voice communication: Testing for the mimicry hypothesis of emotional contagion

Mimicry is a central plank of the emotional contagion theory; however, it was only tested with facial and postural emotional stimuli. This study explores the existence of mimicry in voice-to-voice communication by analyzing 8,747 sequences of emotional displays between customers and employees in a call-center context. We listened live to 967 telephone inter-actions, registered the sequences of emotional displays, and analyzed them with a Markov chain. We also explored other propositions of emotional contagion theory that were yet to be tested in vocal contexts. Results supported that mimicry is significantly present at all levels. Our findings fill an important gap in the emotional contagion theory; have practical implications regarding voice-to-voice interactions; and open doors for future vocal mimicry research.

A general multiserver state-dependent queueing system

The work studies a general multiserver queue in which the service time of an arriving customer and the next interarrival period may depend on both the current waiting time and the server assigned to the arriving customer. Stability of the system is proved under general assumptions on the predetermined distributions describing the model. The proof exploits a combination of the Markov property of the workload process with a regenerative property of the process. The key idea leading to stability is a characterization of the limit behavior of the forward renewal process generated by regenerations. Extensions of the basic model are also studied.