Health investment complementarities under competing risks

Applying the competing--risks model to multi--cause mortality,this paper provides a theoretical and empirical investigation of the positive complementarities that occur between disease--specific policy interventions. We argue that since an individual cannot die twice, competing risks imply that individuals will not waste resources on causes that are not the most immediate, but will make health investments so as to equalize cause--specific mortality. However, equal mortality risk from a variety of diseases does not imply that disease--specific public health interventions are a waste. Rather, a cause--specific intervention produces spillovers to other disease risks, so that the overall reduction in mortality will generally be larger than the direct effect measured on the targeted disease. The assumption that mortality from non--targeted diseases remains the same after a cause--specific intervention under--estimates the true effect of such programs, since the background mortality is also altered as a result of intervention. Analyzing data from one of the most important public health programs ever introduced, the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) of the United Nations, we find evidence for the existence of such complementarities, involving causes that are not biomedically, but behaviorally, linked.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain

This paper studies the duration pattern of xed-term contracts and the determinantsof their conversion into permanent ones in Spain, where the share of xed-termemployment is the highest in Europe. We estimate a duration model for temporaryemployment, with competing risks of terminating into permanent employment versusalternative states, and exible duration dependence. We nd that conversion rates aregenerally below 10%. Our estimated conversion rates roughly increase with tenure,with a pronounced spike at the legal limit, when there is no legal way to retain theworker on a temporary contract. We argue that estimated di¤erences in conversionrates across categories of workers can stem from di¤erences in worker outside optionsand thus the power to credibly threat to quit temporary jobs.

Some remarks on the class of continuous (Semi-) strictcly quasiconvex functions

Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt

Sensitivity of simulation results to competing SAM updates

Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.

Generic optimality conditions for semi-algebraic convex programs

We consider linear optimization over a nonempty convex semi-algebraic feasible region F. Semidefinite programming is an example. If F is compact, then for almost every linear objective there is a unique optimal solution, lying on a unique \active" manifold, around which F is \partly smooth", and the second-order sufficient conditions hold. Perturbing the objective results in smooth variation of the optimal solution. The active manifold consists, locally, of these perturbed optimal solutions; it is independent of the representation of F, and is eventually identified by a variety of iterative algorithms such as proximal and projected gradient schemes. These results extend to unbounded sets F.

An algorithm for semi-infinite polynomial optimization

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Semi-online neural-Q_leaming for real-time robot learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a very suitable technique for robot learning, as it can learn in unknown environments and in real-time computation. The main difficulties in adapting classic RL algorithms to robotic systems are the generalization problem and the correct observation of the Markovian state. This paper attempts to solve the generalization problem by proposing the semi-online neural-Q_learning algorithm (SONQL). The algorithm uses the classic Q_learning technique with two modifications. First, a neural network (NN) approximates the Q_function allowing the use of continuous states and actions. Second, a database of the most representative learning samples accelerates and stabilizes the convergence. The term semi-online is referred to the fact that the algorithm uses the current but also past learning samples. However, the algorithm is able to learn in real-time while the robot is interacting with the environment. The paper shows simulated results with the "mountain-car" benchmark and, also, real results with an underwater robot in a target following behavior

Generació semi-automàtica de façanes procedurals

L’objectiu d’aquest PFC és desenvolupar una eina d’edició de façanes procedural apartir d’una imatge d’una façana real. L’aplicació generarà les regles procedurals de lafaçana a partir de dades adquirides del model que es vol representar, com unafotografia. L’usuari de l’aplicació generarà de forma semi-automàtica i interactiva lesregles de subdivisió i repetició, especificant també la inserció de elementsarquitectònics (portes, finestres), que podran ser instanciats a partir d’una llibreria. Uncop generades, les regles s’escriuran en el format del sistema BuildingEngine perintegrar-se completament dins el procés de modelatge urbà.Aquest projecte es desenvoluparà en Matlab

La implicació de les famílies immigrades en els processos educatius dels seus fills/es: estratègies davant l'èxit i el fracàs escolar

En el present projecte hem analitzat els determinants de les trajectòries educatives dels i les adolescents d'origen immigrant, centrant I'atenció en el paper de les seves famílies davant de I ‘èxit o fracàs escolar del seu fillla. Amb aquest objectiu, I'estudi combina tècniques quantitatives i qualitatives. Per una banda hem analitzat les dades longitudinals del Panel de Famílies i lnfancia, que ens permeten fer un seguiment de les trajectòries educatives i personals de 248 alumnes d'origen immigrant que al 2006 estudiaven I'ESO al llarg de la seva adolescència, i identificar els factors socials responsables de la seva diversificació. Els resultats indiquen que malgrat presentar actituds bastant favorables als estudis i I'assoliment educatiu, concentren diverses situacions de vulnerabilitat a la llar (dificultats socioeconòmiques, estructures familiars atípiques, i erosió de capital social), que incideixen negativament sobre els seus rendiments acadèmics. Per altra, hem realitzat 59 entrevistes semi-estructurades per a complementar i facilitar la interpretació dels resultats obtinguts a la recerca quantitativa i copsar les narratives dels propis protagonistes. Aquestes entrevistes s'han realitzat a: una submostra de les famílies d'aquests alumnes, seleccionades en funció de perfils d’èxit o fracàs educatiu de la trajectòria del menor (46), una submostra d'estudiants resilients (a), i una sèrie d'agents educatius i socials, que inclou membres d'equips directius de centres escolars, AMPA i entitats dedicades a I'atenció a la infància i les famílies (5). El projecte que presentem té una clara vocació de servei públic. L'objectiu és incrementar el coneixement de factors "extraescolars" que poden condicionar I ‘èxit escolar dels estudiants d'origen immigrant. Aquest coneixement constitueix la base per al disseny i orientació de programes d'acompanyament a les famílies dels infants en situació de risc. La nostra voluntat (que reflecteix el principal objectiu de I'lnstitut d’infància i Món Urbà, instituci6 que impulsa el projecte) és contribuir a la transferència de coneixement que pugui ser d'utilitat pels agents que treballen directament sobre les qüestions que estudiem.