Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

The Quaternary Active Faults Database of Iberia (QAFI v.2.0)

The Quaternary Active Faults Database of Iberia (QAFI) is an initiative lead by the Institute of Geology and Mines of Spain (IGME) for building a public repository of scientific data regarding faults having documented activity during the last 2.59 Ma (Quaternary). QAFI also addresses a need to transfer geologic knowledge to practitioners of seismic hazard and risk in Iberia by identifying and characterizing seismogenic fault-sources. QAFI is populated by the information freely provided by more than 40 Earth science researchers, storing to date a total of 262 records. In this article we describe the development and evolution of the database, as well as its internal architecture. Aditionally, a first global analysis of the data is provided with a special focus on length and slip-rate fault parameters. Finally, the database completeness and the internal consistency of the data are discussed. Even though QAFI v.2.0 is the most current resource for calculating fault-related seismic hazard in Iberia, the database is still incomplete and requires further review.

Quaternary active tectonic structures in the offshore Bajo Segura basin (SE Iberian Peninsula Mediterranean Sea).

The Bajo Segura fault zone (BSFZ) is the northern terminal splay of the Eastern Betic shear zone (EBSZ), a large left-lateral strike-slip fault system of sigmoid geometry stretching more than 450 km from Alicante to Almería. The BSFZ extends from the onshore Bajo Segura basin further into the Mediterranean Sea and shows a moderate instrumental seismic activity characterized by small earthquakes. Nevertheless, the zone was affected by large historical earthquakes of which the largest was the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake (IEMS98 X). The onshore area of the BSFZ is marked by active transpressive structures (faults and folds), whereas the offshore area has been scarcely explored from the tectonic point of view. During the EVENT-SHELF cruise, a total of 10 high-resolution single-channel seismic sparker profiles were obtained along and across the offshore Bajo Segura basin. Analysis of these profiles resulted in (a) the identification of 6 Quaternary seismo-stratigraphic units bounded by five horizons corresponding to regional erosional surfaces related to global sea level lowstands; and (b) the mapping of the active sub-seafloor structures and their correlation with those described onshore. Moreover, the results suggest that the Bajo Segura blind thrust fault or the Torrevieja left-lateral strike-slip fault, with prolongation offshore, could be considered as the source of the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake. These data improve our understanding of present deformation along the BSFZ and provide new insights into the seismic hazard in the area.

An active zone characterized by slow normal faults, the northwestern margin of the València trough (NE Iberia): a review

The northwestern margin of the Valencia trough is an area of low strain characterized by slow normal faults and low to moderate seismicity. Since the mid 1990s this area has been the subject of a number of studies on active tectonic which have proposed different approaches to the location of active faults and to the calculation of the parameters that describe their seismic cycle. Fifty-six active faults have been found and a classification has been made in accordance with their characteristics: a) faults with clear evidence of large paleo-, historic or instrumental earthquakes (2/56); b) faults with evidence of accumulated activity during the Plio-Quaternary and with associated instrumental seismicity (7/56); c) faults with evidence of accumulated activity during the Plio-Quaternary and without associated instrumental seismicity (17/56); d) faults with associated instrumental seismicity and without evidence of accumulated activity during the Plio-Quaternary (30/56), and e) faults without evidence of activity or inactive faults. The parameters that describe the seismic cycle of these faults have been evaluated by different methods that use the geological data obtained for each fault except when paleoseismological studies were available. This classification can be applied to other areas with low slip faults because of the simplicity of the approaches adopted. This study reviews the different approaches proposed and describes the active faults located, highlighting the need a) to better understand active faults in slow strain zones through paleoseismological studies, and b) to include them in seismic hazard studies.

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life,human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources forEarthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over thecourse of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the formof a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capabilityto manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves theexisting knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system willat first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursormonitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarningsystem. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine,integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing andnew proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, faultmaps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the maincomponents of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precisionin the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It isbased in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-eventdamage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of ageographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs toprovide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, suchas the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.

Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador)

This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1) community emergency plans, (2) regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces). Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method underestimated the results owing to short and discontinuous periods of rainfall data with the result that probabilistic equations cannot be applied. The Manning method yields a wide range of results because of its dependence on the roughness coefficient. The paleohydraulic method yielded higher values than the rational and Manning methods. However, it should be pointed out that it is possible that bigger boulders could have been moved had they existed. These discharge values are lower than those obtained by the geomorphological estimates, i.e. much closer to reality. The flood hazard maps were derived from the comprehensive geomorphological map. Three categories of hazard were established (very high, high and moderate) using flood energy, water height and velocity flow deduced from geomorphological and eyewitness reports.

GIS-based debris flow source and runout susceptibility assessment from DEM data - a case study in NW Nicaragua

In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered numerous landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. The potential application of relatively simple and affordable spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping in developing countries was studied. Our attention was focused on a region in NW Nicaragua, one of the most severely hit places during the Mitch event. A landslide map was obtained at 1:10 000 scale in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment from the interpretation of aerial photographs and detailed field work. In this map the terrain failure zones were distinguished from the areas within the reach of the mobilized materials. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 20 m×20 m of pixel size was also employed in the study area. A comparative analysis of the terrain failures caused by Hurricane Mitch and a selection of 4 terrain factors extracted from the DEM which, contributed to the terrain instability, was carried out. Land propensity to failure was determined with the aid of a bivariate analysis and GIS tools in a terrain failure susceptibility map. In order to estimate the areas that could be affected by the path or deposition of the mobilized materials, we considered the fact that under intense rainfall events debris flows tend to travel long distances following the maximum slope and merging with the drainage network. Using the TauDEM extension for ArcGIS software we generated automatically flow lines following the maximum slope in the DEM starting from the areas prone to failure in the terrain failure susceptibility map. The areas crossed by the flow lines from each terrain failure susceptibility class correspond to the runout susceptibility classes represented in a runout susceptibility map. The study of terrain failure and runout susceptibility enabled us to obtain a spatial prediction for landslides, which could contribute to landslide risk mitigation.

The El Masnou Infralittoral sedimentary environment (Barcelona province, NW Mediterranean Sea): morphology and Holocene seismic stratigraphy

A detailed analysis of the morphology and the Holocene seismic and sequence stratigraphy and architecture of the infralittoral sedimentary environment of the El Masnou coast (Catalonia, NW Mediterranean Sea) was carried out using multibeam bathymetry and GeoPulse seismic data. This environment extends down to 26-30 m water depth, and is defined morphologically by two depositional wedges whose seafloor is affected by erosive furrows, slides, fields of large- and small-scale wavy bedforms, and dredging trenches and pits. Erosive terraces are also identified in the transition domain toward the inner continental shelf. The Holocene stratigraphy of the infralittoral environment is defined by two major seismic sequences (lower and upper), each one formed by internal seismic units. The sequences and units are characterised by downlapping surfaces made up of deposits formed by progradation of coastal lithosomes. The stratigraphy and stratal architecture, displaying a retrogradational arrangement with progradational patterns of minor order, were controlled by different sea-level positions. The stratigraphic division represents the coastal response to the last fourth-order transgressive and highstand conditions, modulated by small-scale sea-level oscillations (≈1-2 m) of fith to sixth order. This study also highlights the advantage of an integrated analysis using acoustic/seismic methods for practical assessment of the anthropogenic effects on infralittoral domains based on the association of marine geological observations.