The impact of labour market status on second and higher-order births. A comparative study of Denmark, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom

This paper investigates the effects of women‘s labour force participation on fertility, as well as the effects of the combined labour force participation of both members of a couple. It specifically focuses on such dimensions as unemployment, earnings, temporary contracts and part-time jobs, and it shows that their effects differ in accordance with national institutions and labour market regulations. Event-history methods and a longitudinal sample of the European Community Household Panel are used in the analyses, concerning the years 1993-2000. The results show that labour market insecurity of one or both members of a couple has a particularly strong impact in reducing birth rates in the Southern European countries studied. The more conventional model of men’s employment combined with housewifery has a positive impact on second or higher order births in United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, while in Denmark the effect is the opposite. These differences are consistent with different national models of combining parental responsibilities and participation by gender across the life course.

Predictable Life-Cycle Shocks, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.

Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Quality of life following third molar removal under conscious sedation

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess quality of life (QoL) and degree of satisfaction among outpatients subjected to surgical extraction of all four third molars under conscious sedation. A second objective was to describe the evolution of self-reported pain measured in a visual analogue scale (VAS) in the 7 days after extraction. Study design: Fifty patients received a questionnaire assessing social isolation, working isolation, eating and speaking ability, diet modifications, sleep impairment, changes in physical appearance, discomfort at suture removal and overall satisfaction at days 4 and 7 after surgery. Pain was recorded by patients on a 100-mm pain visual analogue scale (VAS) every day after extraction until day 7. Results: Thirty-nine patients fulfilled correctly the questionnaire. Postoperative pain values suffered small fluctuations until day 5 (range: 23 to 33 mm in a 100-mm VAS), when dicreased significantly. A positive association was observed between difficult ranked surgeries and higher postoperative pain levels. The average number of days for which the patient stopped working was 4.9. Conclusion: The removal of all third molars in a single appointment causes an important deterioration of the patient"s QoL during the first postoperative week, especially due to local pain and eating discomfort.

Assigning and combining probabilities in single-case designs: A second study

The present study builds on a previous proposal for assigning probabilities to the outcomes computed using different primary indicators in single-case studies. These probabilities are obtained comparing the outcome to previously tabulated reference values and reflect the likelihood of the results in case there was no intervention effect. The current study explores how well different metrics are translated into p values in the context of simulation data. Furthermore, two published multiple baseline data sets are used to illustrate how well the probabilities could reflect the intervention effectiveness as assessed by the original authors. Finally, the importance of which primary indicator is used in each data set to be integrated is explored; two ways of combining probabilities are used: a weighted average and a binomial test. The results indicate that the translation into p values works well for the two nonoverlap procedures, with the results for the regression-based procedure diverging due to some undesirable features of its performance. These p values, both when taken individually and when combined, were well-aligned with the effectiveness for the real-life data. The results suggest that assigning probabilities can be useful for translating the primary measure into the same metric, using these probabilities as additional evidence on the importance of behavioral change, complementing visual analysis and professional's judgments.

Validation of an instrument to evaluate quality of life in the aging population: WHOQOL-AGE.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for short, specific instruments that assess quality of life (QOL) adequately in the older adult population. The aims of the present study were to obtain evidence on the validity of the inferences that could be drawn from an instrument to measure QOL in the aging population (people 50+ years old), and to test its psychometric properties. METHODS: The instrument, WHOQOL-AGE, comprised 13 positive items, assessed on a five-point rating scale, and was administered to nationally representative samples (n = 9987) from Finland, Poland, and Spain. Cronbach's alpha was employed to assess internal consistency reliability, whereas the validity of the questionnaire was assessed by means of factor analysis, graded response model, Pearson's correlation coefficient and unpaired t-test. Normative values were calculated across countries and for different age groups. RESULTS: The satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices confirmed that the factorial structure of WHOQOL-AGE comprises two first-order factors. Cronbach's alpha was 0.88 for factor 1, and 0.84 for factor 2. Evidence supporting a global score was found with a second-order factor model, according to the goodness-of-fit indices: CFI = 0.93, TLI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.073. Convergent validity was estimated at r = 0.75 and adequate discriminant validity was also found. Significant differences were found between healthy individuals (74.19 ± 13.21) and individuals with at least one chronic condition (64.29 ± 16.29), supporting adequate known-groups validity. CONCLUSIONS: WHOQOL-AGE has shown good psychometric properties in Finland, Poland, and Spain. Therefore, considerable support is provided to using the WHOQOL-AGE to measure QOL in older adults in these countries, and to compare the QOL of older and younger adults.