23 resultados para Seasonality and trends
em Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya (CSUC), Spain
Resumo:
El poder de l'Estat i la sobirania tradicional s'està deteriorant de manera constant, sobretot en termes de la provisió de certs béns públics fonamentals. Els Estats, en particular, són incapaços de manejar el coneixement i la informació que és essencial per mantenir la competitivitat i la sostenibilitat en una economia interdependent. Estructures fiables de la governança mundial i la cooperació internacional estan lluny de ser establertes. Energia com a problema a les agendes p dels governs, les empreses privades i la societat civil és un exemple manifest d'aquesta dinàmica.. L'actual sistema de governança mundial d'energia implica accions polítiques disperses per actors divers. L'Agència Internacional de l'Energia té un paper destacat, però està debilitat per la seva composició limitada i basada en el coneixement- epistèmic en lloc del material o executiu. Aquest treball sosté que ni la mida ni nombre de membres disponibles estan dificultant la governabilitat mundial d'energia. Més aviat, l'energia és una sèrie de béns públics que es troben als llimbs, on els estats no poden pagar la seva disposició, així com els diversos interessos impedir l'establiment d'una autoritat internacional. Després de la introducció de la teoria del règim internacional i el concepte de coneixement basats en les comunitats epistèmiques, l'article revisa l'estat actual de la governabilitat de l'energia mundia. A continuació es presenta una comparació d'aquesta estructura amb els règims de govern nacional i regional, d'una banda, i amb règims globals ambientals i de salut, de l'altra
Resumo:
Proyecto de investigación elaborado a partir de una estancia en el Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, a Alemanya, entre 2010 y 2012. La radiación solar que alcanza la superficie terrestre es un factor clave entre los procesos que controlan el clima de la Tierra, dado el papel que desempeñan en el balance energético y el ciclo hidrológico. Establecer su contribución al cambio climático reciente supone una gran dificultad debido a la complejidad de los procesos implicados, la gran cantidad de información requerida, y la incertidumbre de las bases de datos disponibles en la actualidad. Así, el objetivo principal del proyecto ha consistido en generar una base de datos de insolación incluyendo las series más largas (desde finales del siglo XIX) disponibles en toda Europa. Esta base de datos complementa para nuestro continente el Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) que mantiene y gestiona el grupo que ha acogido al receptor de la ayuda postdoctoral, y permite extender espacial (especialmente en países del sur de Europa) y temporalmente las series climáticas disponibles de mediciones de irradiancia solar. Como la insolación es un proxy de la irradiancia solar, el proyecto actual también ha tratado de calibrar de forma exhaustiva ambas variables, a fin de generar una nueva base de datos reconstruida de esta segunda variable que esté disponible desde finales del siglo XIX en Europa. Un segundo objetivo del proyecto ha consistido en continuar trabajando a escala de mayor detalle sobre la Península Ibérica, con el fin de proporcionar una mejor comprensión del fenómeno del “global dimming/brightening” y su impacto en el ciclo hidrológico y balance energético. Finalmente, un tercer objetivo del presente proyecto postdoctoral ha consistido en continuar estudiando los posibles ciclos semanales a gran escala de diferentes variables climáticas, línea de investigación de interés para la detección de posibles efectos de los aerosoles antrópicos en el clima a escalas temporales breves, y consecuentemente estrechamente vinculado al fenómeno del “global dimming/brightening”.
Resumo:
Las características de la mortalidad Influyen decisivamente en la estructura demográfica de las poblaciones, regida por diferentes factores: internos (rasgos específicos genéticos y culturales), externos (características del ecosistema) e intermedios (capacidad de la población de autoajustarse al ambiente). El estudio de la distribución estacional de las 3313 defunciones registradas en la Villa de El Pont de Suert (Alta Ribagorça, Cataluña) desde 1664 evidencia la importancia de todos estos factores. Los patrones de distribución muestran el Influjo de las condiciones climáticas, de los ambientes epidemiológicos, así como de las transformaciones socioeconómicas y demográficas. El modelo de tendencia cíclica en la mortalidad, común a muchas poblaciones ibéricas de montaña, no se evidencia en esta población.
Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach
Resumo:
This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn
Resumo:
Purpose - There has been much research on manufacturing flexibility, but supply chain flexibility is still an under-investigated area. This paper focuses on supply flexibility, the aspects of flexibility related to the upstream supply chain. Our purpose is to investigate why and how firms increase supply flexibility.Methodology/Approach An exploratory multiple case study was conducted. We analyzed seven Spanish manufacturers from different sectors (automotive, apparel, electronics and electrical equipment).Findings - The results show that there are some major reasons why firms need supply flexibility (manufacturing schedule fluctuations, JIT purchasing, manufacturing slack capacity, low level of parts commonality, demand volatility, demand seasonality and forecast accuracy), and that companies increase this type of flexibility by implementing two main strategies: to increase suppliers responsiveness capability and flexible sourcing . The results also suggest that the supply flexibility strategy selected depends on two factors: the supplier searching and switching costs and the type of uncertainty (mix, volume or delivery).Research limitations - This paper has some limitations common to all case studies, such as the subjectivity of the analysis, and the questionable generalizability of results (since the sample of firms is not statistically significant).Implications - Our study contributes to the existing literature by empirically investigating which are the main reasons for companies needing to increase supply flexibility, how they increase this flexibility, and suggesting some factors that could influence the selection of a particular supply flexibility strategy.
Resumo:
This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). A database spanning 60 yr (1950-2009) has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and waterspout distribution. Results show the highest concentration of tornadoes from August to October, the highest density in the heavily populated coastal areas and a growing positive trend that is likely more closely linked to an increase in observation and perception rather than a real climatic trend.
Resumo:
In this paper we use a variety of data sources, both micro and macro, time series, crosssection, and panel data to provide an empirical evaluation of the current level of economicwellbeing of the Spanish elderly, and of its determinants. We focus, in particular on the role played by the pension system and its generosity in terms of minimum pension supplements and non-contributive pensions. In an IV context, we find that actual Social Security benefits contribute substantially to explain income and consumption poverty levels and trends of low income and consumption percentiles. Thus we offer support to previous evidence for Spain emphasizing the role of minimum benefit policies.
Resumo:
The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.
Resumo:
A la formación se le asigna capacidad para favorecer la productividad, la competitividad y el acceso a una ocupación. Teniendo en cuenta esta característica, el artículo analiza los cambios y tendencias de la formación inicial, continua y ocupacional en España desde la aprobación del primer Programa Nacíonal de Formación Profesional en 1993, hasta el segundo Programa aprobado en 1998. En este sentido, se observa que los tres subsistemas de formación no están exentos de ciertos puntos débiles que dificultan la plena consecución de los objetivos que tienen asignados y que en ciertos aspectos no han sido corregidos en el nuevo Programa Nacional de Formación Profesional.
Resumo:
Estamos viviendo desde la entrada al siglo XXI una explosión acelerada de las tecnologías, de las TIC’s, las redes sociales en internet, etc. que están modificando enormemente los hábitos de consumo y los principios de la sociedad. A todo ello, hay que añadir la situación de crisis económica general que existe en el mundo, y que afecta enormemente a las empresas y al tejido empresarial de un país. En este entorno, las compañías deben basar sus estrategias en estar cerca del cliente y ser capaces de visualizar necesidades no cubiertas. Sobre todo, las empresas deben transformarse para crear organizaciones humanizadas capaces de generar innovación y adaptarse rápidamente a los nuevos entornos que van surgiendo. Para poder hacer frente a esta nueva situación las empresas deben poner en valor el talento de todas las personas que forman parte de la organización. El activo más importante y escaso, para poder desarrollar estrategias triunfadoras. El trabajo pretende resumir la situación actual para las empresas, recoger todas las ideas y nuevas tendencias que existen en cuanto a la gestión del talento, la organización del trabajo y la creación de estructuras que permitan innovar. A lo largo del trabajo se van desarrollando las diferentes herramientas, sistemas y disciplinas que están a disposición de las empresas para crear un entorno que favorezca la innovación, como camino para mantenerse en el mercado global.
Resumo:
Myeloid malignancies (MMs) are a heterogeneous group of hematologic malignancies presenting different incidence, prognosis and survival.1–3 Changing classifications (FAB 1994, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008) and few available epidemiological data complicate incidence comparisons.4,5 Taking this into account, the aims of the present study were: a) to calculate the incidence rates and trends of MMs in the Province of Girona, northeastern Spain, between 1994 and 2008 according to the WHO 2001 classification; and b) to predict the number of MMs cases in Spain during 2013. Data were extracted from the population-based Girona Cancer Registry (GCR) located in the north-east of Catalonia, Spain, and covering a population of 731,864 inhabitants (2008 census). Cases were registered according to the rules of the European Network for Cancer Registries and the Manual for Coding and Reporting Haematological Malignancies (HAEMACARE project). To ensure the complete coverage of MMs in the GCR, and especially myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), a retrospective search was performed. The ICD-O-2 (1990) codes were converted into their corresponding ICD-O-3 (2000) codes, including MDS, polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) as malignant diseases. Results of crude rate (CR) and European standardized incidence rate (ASRE) were expressed per 100,000 inhabitants/year
Resumo:
The relationship between lifestyle factors, past medical conditions, daily meal frequency, diet and the risk of 'familial' colorectal cancer has been analysed using data from a case-control study conducted in northern Italy. A total of 1584 colorectal cancer patients and 2879 control subjects were admitted to a network of hospitals in the Greater Milan area and the Pordenone province. The subjects included for analysis were the 112 cases and the 108 control subjects who reported a family history of colorectal cancer in first-degree relatives. Colorectal cancer cases and control subjects with family history were similarly distributed according to sex, age, marital status, years of schooling and social class. Familial colorectal cancer was associated with meal frequency, medical history of diabetes (relative risk, RR = 4.6) and cholelithiasis (RR = 5.2). Significant positive trends of increasing risk with more frequent consumption were observed for pasta (RR = 2.5, for the highest vs the lowest intake tertile), pastries (RR = 2.4), red meat (RR = 2.9), canned meat (RR = 1.9), cheese (RR = 3.5) and butter (RR = 1.9). Significant inverse associations and trends in risk were observed for consumption of poultry (RR = 0.4), tomatoes (RR = 0.2), peppers (RR = 0.3) and lettuce (RR = 0.3). Significant inverse trends in risk with increasing consumption for beta-carotene and ascorbic acid were observed (RR = 0.5 and 0.4 respectively, highest vs lowest intake tertile). These results suggest that risk factors for subjects with a family history of colorectal cancer in first-degree relatives are not appreciably different from recognized risk factors of the disease in the general population.
Resumo:
This paper deals with the product design, engineering, and material selection intended for the manufacturing of an eco-friendly chair. The final product is expected to combine design attributes with technical and legal feasibility with the implementation of new bio-based materials. Considering the industrial design, a range of objectives and trends were determined after setting the market requirements, and the final concept was proposed and modeled. The product geometry, production technology, and legal specifications were the input data for product engineering. The material selection was based on the technical requirements. Polypropylene (PP) composite materials based on coupled-fiberglass, sized-fiberglass, and coupled-stone ground wood reinforcements were prepared and characterized. Final formulations based on these PP composites are proposed and justified
Resumo:
The main goal of this research is explain the impact of the new trends of wine consumption, and the way these enterprises adapted to the circumstances. The hypothesis is that the Spanish companies had to start a deep and traumatic restructuring process, with the aim of surviving adequately in the changeable wine national and international markets. Heavy technological investments were made, with serious finance problems, during the eighties and nineties. We will see this from two specific cases, the Cooperatives "San Isidro" and "Rosario", located in the Region of Murcia, in the Spanish southeast.
Resumo:
The objective of this paper is preciselyto study the evolution of payment systems within the accession countries between 1996 and 2003 and compare them with those of the E.U. and the Eurozone countries