Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Seasonal changes of whole root system conductance by a drought-tolerant grape root system

The role of root systems in drought tolerance is a subject of very limited information compared with above-ground responses. Adjustments to the ability of roots to supply water relative to shoot transpiration demand is proposed as a major means for woody perennial plants to tolerate drought, and is often expressed as changes in the ratios of leaf to root area (AL:AR). Seasonal root proliferation in a directed manner could increase the water supply function of roots independent of total root area (AR) and represents a mechanism whereby water supply to demand could be increased. To address this issue, seasonal root proliferation, stomatal conductance (gs) and whole root system hydraulic conductance (kr) were investigated for a drought-tolerant grape root system (Vitis berlandieri×V. rupestris cv. 1103P) and a non-drought-tolerant root system (Vitis riparia×V. rupestris cv. 101-14Mgt), upon which had been grafted the same drought-sensitive clone of Vitis vinifera cv. Merlot. Leaf water potentials (ψL) for Merlot grafted onto the 1103P root system (–0.91±0.02 MPa) were +0.15 MPa higher than Merlot on 101-14Mgt (–1.06±0.03 MPa) during spring, but dropped by approximately –0.4 MPa from spring to autumn, and were significantly lower by –0.15 MPa (–1.43±0.02 MPa) than for Merlot on 101-14Mgt (at –1.28±0.02 MPa). Surprisingly, gs of Merlot on the drought-tolerant root system (1103P) was less down-regulated and canopies maintained evaporative fluxes ranging from 35–20 mmol vine−1 s−1 during the diurnal peak from spring to autumn, respectively, three times greater than those measured for Merlot on the drought-sensitive rootstock 101-14Mgt. The drought-tolerant root system grew more roots at depth during the warm summer dry period, and the whole root system conductance (kr) increased from 0.004 to 0.009 kg MPa−1 s−1 during that same time period. The changes in kr could not be explained by xylem anatomy or conductivity changes of individual root segments. Thus, the manner in which drought tolerance was conveyed to the drought-sensitive clone appeared to arise from deep root proliferation during the hottest and driest part of the season, rather than through changes in xylem structure, xylem density or stomatal regulation. This information can be useful to growers on a site-specific basis in selecting rootstocks for grape clonal material (scions) grafted to them.

Timing of seasonal sales

We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores chooseseveral designs at the beginning of the season without knowingwich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have achance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionableones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of theseason, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing theirfashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods stillon the shelves, stores adjust downward their expectations that theyare carrying a fashionable design, and may have sales to capture thediscount market. Having a greater number of designs induces a storeto put one of them on sales earlier to test the market. Moreover,price competition in the discount market induces stores to startsales earlier because of a greater perceived first-mover advantage incapturing the discount market. More competition, perhaps due todecreases in the cost of product innovation, makes sales occur evenearlier. These results are consistent with the observation that thetrend toward earlier sales since mid-1970's coincides with increasingproduct varieties in fashion good markets and increasing storecompetition.

Seasonal dependence in the solar neutrino flux

Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) solutions of the solar neutrino problem predict a seasonal dependence of the zenith angle distribution of the event rates, due to the nonzero latitude at the Super-Kamiokande site. We calculate this seasonal dependence and compare it with the expectations in the no-oscillation case as well as just-so scenario, in the light of the latest Super-Kamiokande 708-day data. The seasonal dependence can be sizable in the large mixing angle MSW solution and would be correlated with the day-night effect. This may be used to discriminate between MSW and just-so scenarios and should be taken into account in refined fits of the data.

Chemical variability in clays and pottery from a traditional cooking pot production village: Testing assumptions in Pereruela

This paper explores analytically the contemporary pottery-making community of Pereruela (north-west Spain) that produces cooking pots from a mixture of red clay and kaolin. Analyses by different techniques (XRF, NAA, XRD, SEM and petrography) showed an extremely high variability for cooking ware pottery produced in a single production centre, by the same technology and using local clays. The main source of chemical variation is related to the use of different red clays and the presence of non-normally distributed inclusions of monazite. These two factors induce a high chemical variability, not only in the output of a single production centre, but even in the paste of a single pot, to an extent to which chemical compositions from one"workshop", or even one"pot", could be classified as having different provenances. The implications for the chemical characterization and for provenance studies of archaeological ceramics are addressed.

Seasonal patterns op biomass variation of Ruppia cirrhosa (Petagna) Grande and Potamageton pectinatus L. in a coastal logoon

Coastal lagoons where salinity varies within a wide range during the year are colonized by euryhaline macrophytes which can develop extensive beds. Seasonal changes in biomass of Ruppia cirrhosa and Potamogeton pectinatus were studied in Tancada Lagoon (Ebro Delta, NE Spain) in order to reveal the environmental factors controlling their population development. Ruppia cirrhosa occupy a larger area of the lagoon than Potarnogeton pectinatus. Their maximum above ground biomasses are also different (495 g m-2 and 351 g m-2 ash free dry weight, respectively). Below ground biomass of Ruppia cirrhosa is between 9 and 53 % of the above ground biomass, while it is 3-40 % for Potamogeton pectinatus. Chlorophyll a contents show fluctuations similar to biomass. Low salinity and high turbidity caused by freshwater inflows favour Potamogeton expansion, while Ruppia development is favoured by high salinity and transparent water.

Seasonal dynamics and net production of disolved organic carbon in an oligotrophic coastal environment

To understand dissolved organic carbon (DOC) seasonal dynamics in a coastal oligotrophic site in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, we monitored DOC concentrations monthly over 3 yr, together with the meteorological data and the food-web-related biological processes involved in DOC dynamics. Additional DOC samples were taken in several inshore−offshore transects along the Catalan coast. We found DOC concentrations of ~60 µmol C l−1 in winter, with increasing values through the summer and autumn and reaching 100 to 120 µmol C l−1 in November. There was high inter-annual variability in this summer DOC accumulation, with values of 36, 69 and 13 µmol C l−1 for 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively. The analysis of the microbial food-web processes involved in the DOC balance did not reveal the causes of this accumulation, since the only occasion on which we observed net DOC production (0.3 ± 1 µmol C l−1 d−1 on average) was in 2007, and the negative DOC balance of 2006 and 2008 did not prevent DOC accumulating. The DOC accumulation episodes coincided with low rates of water renewal (average 0.037 ± 0.021 d−1 from May to October) compared with those of winter to early spring (average 0.11 ± 0.048 d−1 from November to April). Indeed, the amount of DOC accumulated each year was inversely correlated with the average summer rainfall. We hypothesize that decreased DOC turn-over due to photochemical or biological processes mostly active during the summer and low water renewal rate combine to determine seasonal DOC accumulation and influence its inter-annual variability.

LRCW.NET: A web site with a virtual laboratory for the study of coarse and cooking wares in the Late Antique Mediterranean

This contribution presents the LRCW.net a website with a virtual laboratory intranet devoted to the study of coarse and cooking wares in the late Antique Mediterranean. It is designed as a public website with a virtual laboratory intranet. There, all institutions and researchers interested in the subject can work together towards a specific purpose such as the creation of an on-line ‘encyclopedia’ for these categories of ceramics. The LRCW.net website and the associated virtual laboratory are just a small part of a wider initiative that aims to create an on-line Encyclopedia for Ancient Ceramics in the Mediterranean.

Differences in seasonal price patterns among second home rentals and hotels: Empirical evidence and practical implications

Hotels and second home rentals are two of the most important tourist accommodation options in Spain. In terms of seasonality, almost all previous studies have analysed tourism demand from the point of view either of total arrivals or the number of tourists lodged in a single accommodation type (hotels, rural accommodation, etc). However, there are no studies focusing on price seasonality orcomparing seasonality among different accommodation types. By using seasonality indicators and a price index constructed by means of hedonic methods, this paper aims to shed some light on seasonal pricing patterns among second home rentals and hotels. The paper relies on a 2004 database of 144 hotels and 1,002 apartments on the Costa Brava (northeast Spain). The results show that prices for second home rentals display a smoother seasonal pattern than hotels due to reduced price differences between shoulder (May and October) and peak periods (August)

Aquaculture production in areas with high seasonal temperature variations: Development of planning tools

Postprint (published version)

The seasonal evolution of high vertical–mode internal waves in a deep reservoir

The causal mechanism and seasonal evolution of the internal wave field in a deep, warm, monomictic reservoirare examined through the analysis of field observations and numerical techniques. The study period extends fromthe onset of thermal stratification in the spring until midsummer in 2005. During this time, wind forcing wasperiodic, with a period of 24 h (typical of land–sea breezes), and the thermal structure in the lake wascharacterized by the presence of a shallow surface layer overlying a thick metalimnion, typical of small to mediumsized reservoirs with deep outtakes. Basin-scale internal seiches of high vertical mode (ranging from mode V3 toV5) were observed in the metalimnion. The structure of the dominant modes of oscillation changed asstratification evolved on seasonal timescales, but in all cases, their periods were close to that of the local windforcing (i.e., 24 h), suggesting a resonant response. Nonresonant oscillatory modes of type V1 and V2 becamedominant after large frontal events, which disrupted the diurnal periodicity of the wind forcing

Cooking and Active Leisure TAS Program, Spain: A Program Impact Pathways (PIP) analysis

Background. The “Cooking and Active Leisure” Tu y Alícia por la Salud (CAL-TAS) Program is a schoolbased pilot that addresses healthy lifestyle needs of Spanish secondary school students with initiatives that research has proven to improve dietary and physical activity behaviors. Objective. The objectives were to perform a Program Impact Pathways (PIP) analysis to describe key activities and processes of the CAL-TAS Program, identify Critical Quality Control Points (CCPs), and identify a suite of common indicators of healthy lifestyles to be applied across participant schools. Methods. The CAL-TAS Program designers and implementation team developed this PIP analysis through an iterative process and presented the results for feedback at the seven-country Healthy Lifestyles Program Evaluation Workshop held in Granada, Spain, 13–14 September 2013, under the auspices of the Mondelēz International Foundation. Results. The team identified three PIP CCPs: teachers’ motivation and training, changes in students’ knowledge of healthy lifestyles, and changes in students’ healthy lifestyle behavior. The selected indicators of the program’s impact on healthy lifestyles are adequacy of food intake, level of knowledge of healthy lifestyles gained, and adequacy of physical activity level according to World Health Organization recommendations. A clear definition of impact indicators, as well as collection of accurate data on healthy lifestyle behaviors and knowledge, is essential to understanding the effectiveness of this program before it can be scaled up. Conclusions. CAL-TAS is an effective secondary school-based program encouraging healthy lifestyles. The PIP analysis was instrumental in identifying CCPs to sustain and improve the quality of the program. The team hopes to sustain and improve the program through these program evaluation recommendations.

Effect of Seasonal Dynamics on Queen Densities of the Argentine Ant (Linepithema Humile) in an Invaded Natural Area of the NE Iberian Peninsula

The annual elimination of large numbers of Argentine ant queens near the advance front of an invasion could be a useful tool for weakening the species’ dispersion and, therefore, limiting its establishment in non-invaded areas. However, before carrying out trials to test the effectiveness of this method it would be essential to have sufficient knowledge of the effect of seasonal dynamics acting on the queens’ densities of the species in order to determine the most favourable period of the year to act. We analyzed the seasonal densities and nest dynamics of Argentine ant queens in an invaded Mediterranean natural ecosystem. We observed that the queens’ density varied depending on the season of the year and that this variation was mainly due to the seasonal dynamics of nest aggregations in winter and ant dispersions in summer. The greatest densities per litre of nest soil were observed in winter (December to March, approximately) and the lowest densities were observed in summer ( June to July). This information is essential for improving current knowledge of the Argentine ant’s biology and developing control methods based on the elimination of queens in invaded natural areas

Improved understanding of drought controls on seasonal variation in Mediterranean forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling

Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ('ORCHIDEE'), and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ('GOTILWA+'), was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.