A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

The Determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers. Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to purs

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Los alumnos de la E.U.E CRUZ ROJA en Madrid : evolución histórica, visión antropológica

L'objectiu principal d'aquest treball és mostrar la història de l'Escola Universitària d'Infermeria de Creu Roja a Madrid, a través dels alumnes que s'han format en ella, des de 1918 fins a l'època actual.

Joint determinants of education enrolment and first birth timing in France and West Germany

We examined the reciprocal influence between educational decisions and the timing of first births, using the Family and Fertility Surveys of France and West Germany. Since these two processes are potentially endogenous, we modelled them jointly, using event history models. We hypothesise that the reciprocal impact of educational and fertility careers, as well as the impact of the common determinants of both processes, are gender specific and context specific.The results show a significant endogeneity for women and men in both countries. This endogeneity is stronger for women than for men, while no substantial differences are found between the two countries. Removing this shared and unobserved heterogeneity, the results show a stronger reciprocal impact between the processes for women than for men. A similar impact of being enrolled in education on first birth in both countries is found, while the effect of the birth (and especially of the pregnancy) of the first child on terminating one’s education appeared to be more marked in West Gernany than in France.

Los títulos de crédito como marco de la obra fílmica. Análisis en Un americano en París, West Side Story y El desprecio

Este trabajo de investigación plantea un paralelismo entre los marcos en pintura y lostítulos de crédito en cine. Se analizan los créditos de tres películas (Un americano en París, West Side Story y El desprecio) según sus características de indicación, frontera, límite, umbral al imaginario y marco de actividad. Las películas a las que acompañan pertenecen, a su vez, a diferentes medios de producción y jerarquía, aspectos tecnológicos, áreas estéticas y estructuras de emisión y recepción. Los tres marcos son, a su vez, marcos-objeto, marcos-límite, marcos-ventana y marcos-espejo. Se leen de manera centrípeta, entre dos mundos y desde fuera del marco. Para ello se parte de una metodología transdisciplinar basada en la hermenéutica, el análisis crítico de los textos audiovisuales, los estudios sobrela imagen y el marco como objeto social.

Explotació vitivinícola El Quintà S.L.U.

El nostre treball consisteix en assessorar a un jove enginyer agrònom, que vol crear una empresa vinícola a Hostalets d’en Bas, situat a la comarca de la Garrotxa. La masia on vol dur a terme el projecte és al Mas Tarrés. La nostra finalitat és estudiar la viabilitat econòmica de l’empresa anomenada El Quintà. Aquesta produirà vi negre per a la seva comercialitzacióen un sector del mercat.L’objectiu que busca el nostre client amb la creació d’aquesta empresa és aconseguir elaborar un vi negre, de la varietat Cabernet Sauvignon, que formi part del conjunt de productes típics de la comarca de la Garrotxa, coneguts amb el nom de “Cuina Volcànica”.D’aquesta manera vol arribar a satisfer les necessitats dels diferents consumidors.Com a assessores ens hem adonat que el projecte inicial no era viable. Per aquest motiu hem proposat al nostre client una sèrie de millores per intentar que el seu projecte empresarial tingui futur. Quines han estat aquestes millores? Hem aconseguit que el projecte tingui sortida? Per respondre aquests interrogants hem calculat tots els costos necessaris als que s’enfrontarà el client, tant en el projecte original com en el projecte amb les millores, tot comparant els resultats comptables obtinguts.Per acabar, ¿Quant costa produir una ampolla de vi? Aquesta és una bona pregunta que ens hem fet, per saber si el preu del vi produït, amb les seves característiques particulars, podria competir amb la resta de vins existents al mercat.

Long-run substitutability between more and less educated workers: Evidence from U.S. States 1950-1990

We estimate the aggregate long-run elasticity of substitution between more and less educatedworkers (the slope of the demand curve for more relative to less educated workers) at theUS state level. Our data come from the (five)1950-1990 decennial censuses. Our empiricalapproach allows for state and time fixed effects and relies on time and state dependentchild labor and compulsory school attendance laws as instruments for (endogenous) changesin the relative supply of more educated workers. We find the aggregate long-run elasticity ofsubstitution between more and less educated workers to be around 1.5.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

Compensating wage differentials and voluntary job changes: Evidence from West Germany

Does the labor market place wage premia on jobs that involve physical strain,job, insecurity or bad regulation of hours? This paper derives bounds on themonetary returns to these job disamenities in the West German labor market.We show that in a market with dispersion in both job characteristics andwages, the average wage change of workers who switch jobs voluntarily and optfor consuming more (less) disamenities,provides an upper (lower) bound on themarket return to the disamenity. Using longitudinal information from workersin the German Socio Economic Panel, we estimate an upper bound of 5% and alower bound of 3.5% for the market return to work strain in a job.

The determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: Are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers.Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to pursue "free-riding" regulation.

Product market deregulation and the U.S. employment miracle

We consider the dynamic relationship between product market entry regulation and equilibrium unemployment. The main theoretical contribution is combining a job matchingmodel with monopolistic competition in the goods market and individual wage bargaining.Product market competition affects unemployment by two channels: the output expansion effect and a countervailing effect due to a hiring externality. Competition is then linked to barriers to entry. We calibrate the model to US data and perform a policy experiment to assess whether the decrease in trend unemployment during the 1980 s and 1990 s could be attributed to product market deregulation. Our quantitative analysis suggests that under individual bargaining, a decrease of less than two tenths of a percentage point of unemployment rates can be attributed to product market deregulation, a surprisingly small amount.

Desarrollo de un videojuego Android : P.U Pets

El proyecto P.U Pets se trata de un videojuego que será desarrollado para la plataforma Android y que constará de 5 fases/niveles completos.