Lessons of peace in Aceh: administrative decentralization and political freedom as a strategy of pacification in Aceh

This working paper shows the evolution of the Aceh conflict until its peaceful resolution in 2005. The key factors in the success of this peace process have been the confluence of several factors related to the internal and external dynamics of the country, including the new political leadership, the decreasing role of the military power, the international support and the meeting of the objectives of both groups, and so on. The end of the conflict in Aceh shows that the administrative decentralization and the promotion of the political participation of the main actors involved have made possible the development of a solid alternative to the arms strategy of conflict resolution used for years in Indonesia.

Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption

Recent evidence suggests that consumption rises in response to an increase in government spending. That finding cannot be easily reconciled with existing optimizing business cycle models. We extend the standard new Keynesian model to allow for the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers. We show how the interaction of the latter with sticky prices and deficit financing can account for the existing evidence on the effects of government spending.

Stable sunspot equilibria in a cash-in-advance economy

We analyze a monetary model with flexible labor supply, cash-inadvance constraints and seigniorage-financed government deficits. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor is greater than one, there are two steady states, one determinate and the other indeterminate. If the elasticity is less than one, there is a unique steady state, which can be indeterminate. Only in the latter case do there exist sunspot equilibria that are stable under adaptive learning. A sufficient reduction in government purchases can in many cases eliminate the sunspot equilibria while raising consumption/labor taxes even enough to balance the budget may fail to achieve determinacy.

Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

We use data from Bankscope to analyze the holdings of public bonds by over 18,000 banks located in 185 countries and the role of these bonds in 18 sovereign debt crises over the period 1998-2012. We find that: (i) banks hold a sizeable share of their assets in government bonds (about 9% on average), particularly in less financially developed countries; (ii) during sovereign crises, banks on average increase their bondholdings by 1% of their assets, but this increase is concentrated among larger and more profitable banks, and; (iii) the correlation between a bank's holdings of public bonds and its future loans is positive in normal times, but turns negative during defaults. A 10% increase in bank bond-holdings during default is associated with a 3.2% reduction in future loans, and bonds bought in normal times account for 75% of this effect. Our results are consistent with the view that there is a liquidity benefit for banks to hold public bonds in normal times, which is critical for understanding bank fragility during sovereign crises.

Evaluating the effects of decentralization on educational outcomes in Spain

[cat] Diversos arguments derivats de la teoria del federalisme fiscal suggereixen que la descentralització pot portar a majors nivells d’eficiència en la provisió de béns i serveis publics. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi és contrastar aquesta hipòtesi mitjançant l’avaluació dels efectes de la descentralització sobre els resultats educatius a Espanya. Els resultats educatius es mesuren d’acord amb la taxa de supervivència, que es defineix com el nombre d’estudiants que es matricula en educació secundària no obligatòria en relació als alumnes matriculats a l’últim curs d’educació obligatòria durant l’any acadèmic anterior.

Evaluating the effects of decentralization on educational outcomes in Spain

[cat] Diversos arguments derivats de la teoria del federalisme fiscal suggereixen que la descentralització pot portar a majors nivells d’eficiència en la provisió de béns i serveis publics. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi és contrastar aquesta hipòtesi mitjançant l’avaluació dels efectes de la descentralització sobre els resultats educatius a Espanya. Els resultats educatius es mesuren d’acord amb la taxa de supervivència, que es defineix com el nombre d’estudiants que es matricula en educació secundària no obligatòria en relació als alumnes matriculats a l’últim curs d’educació obligatòria durant l’any acadèmic anterior.

The Institutional, Economic and Social Determinants of Local Government Transparency

Interest in public accountability and government transparency is increasing worldwide. The literature on the determinants of transparency is evolving but is still in its early stages. So far, it has typically focused on national or regional governments while neglecting the local government level. This paper builds on the scarce knowledge available in order to examine the economic, social, and institutional determinants of local government transparency in Spain. We draw on a 2010 survey and the transparency indexes constructed by the NGO Transparency International (Spain) in order to move beyond the fiscal transparency addressed in previous work. In so doing, we broaden the analysis of transparency to the corporate, social, fiscal, contracting, and planning activities of governments. Our results on overall transparency indicate that large municipalities and left-wing local government leaders are associated with better transparency indexes; while the worst results are presented by provincial capitals, cities where tourist activity is particularly important and local governments that enjoy an absolute majority. The analysis of other transparency categories generally shows the consistent impact of these determinants and the need to consider a wider set of variables to capture their effect.

Testing the FTPL across government tiers

Control on regional government budgets is important in a monetary union as lower tiers of government have fewer incentives to consolidate debt. According to the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level; unsustainable non-Ricardian fiscal policies eventually force monetary policy to adjust. Hence, uncoordinated and non-regulated regional fiscal policies would therefore threaten price stability for the monetary union as a whole. However, the union central bank is not without defense. A federal government that internalises the spillover effect of non-Ricardian fiscal policies on the price level can offset non-Ricardian regional fiscal policies. A federal government, which taxes and transfers resources between regions, may compensate for unsustainable regional fiscal policies so as to keep fiscal policy Ricardian on aggregate. Following Canzoneri et al. (2001), we test the validity of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level for both federal and regional governments in Germany. We find evidence of a spillover effect of unsustainable policies on the price level for other Länder. However, the German federal government offsets this effect on the price level by running Ricardian policies. These results have implications for the regulation of fiscal policies in the EMU.

Lecciones de paz en Aceh: descentralización administrativa y libertad política como estrategia de pacificación en Aceh

El presente documento de trabajo muestra la evolución del conflicto en Aceh hasta su resolución pacífica en 2005. Las claves del éxito de este proceso de paz han sido la confluencia de varios factores ligados a las dinámicas interna y externa del país: nuevo liderazgo político, pérdida del rol por parte de los militares, apoyo internacional y acomodación de los objetivos de ambos bandos, etc. La resolución del conflicto en Aceh pone de manifiesto como la descentralización administrativa y el fomento de la participación política de los principales actores involucrados han permitido desarrollar una alternativa sólida a la estrategia armada de resolución de conflictos utilizada durante años en Indonesia.

Lliçons de la pau a Aceh: descentralització administrativa i llibertat política com a estratègia de pacificació a Aceh

Aquest document de treball mostra l’evolució del conflicte a Aceh fins a la seva resolució pacífica el 2005. La clau de l’èxit d’aquest procés de pau ha estat la confluència de diversos factors lligats a les dinàmiques internes i externes del país: un nou lideratge polític, la pèrdua de rol per part dels militars, el recolzament internacional i l’acomodació dels objectius de les dues parts, entre d’altres. La resolució del conflicte a Aceh posa de manifest com la descentralització administrativa i el foment de la participació política dels principals actors involucrats han permès desenvolupar una alternativa sòlida a l’estratègia armada de resolució de conflictes utilitzada durant diversos anys a Indonèsia.

The Barcelona Forum: on decentralized governance and conflict prevention 6-8 july 2009

The Barcelona Forum aimed to generate both a theoretical and practical discussion on decentralized governance and its capacity to promote peace, prevent conflict, advance human security and ensure greater governmental accountability. The Forum intended to review the theoretical strength of decentralization as a political tool and discuss how it can be properly implemented. Eight case studies were selected to be covered during the two days in order to draw conclusions and offer proposals for the future implementation of decentralization. The case of Catalonia and the decentralized experience of Spain was given special attention, as an example of successful decentralization. The other cases presented achievements and challenges and prompted discussions on both the validity and universality of decentralization as a way to promote and preserve peace. Topics such as ethnic and territorial divisions, democratic accountability, financial decentralization and distribution, resource sharing, and external implementation of decentralization through peace processes were discussed.

Clustering compositional data trajectories

Our essay aims at studying suitable statistical methods for the clustering ofcompositional data in situations where observations are constituted by trajectories ofcompositional data, that is, by sequences of composition measurements along a domain.Observed trajectories are known as “functional data” and several methods have beenproposed for their analysis.In particular, methods for clustering functional data, known as Functional ClusterAnalysis (FCA), have been applied by practitioners and scientists in many fields. To ourknowledge, FCA techniques have not been extended to cope with the problem ofclustering compositional data trajectories. In order to extend FCA techniques to theanalysis of compositional data, FCA clustering techniques have to be adapted by using asuitable compositional algebra.The present work centres on the following question: given a sample of compositionaldata trajectories, how can we formulate a segmentation procedure giving homogeneousclasses? To address this problem we follow the steps described below.First of all we adapt the well-known spline smoothing techniques in order to cope withthe smoothing of compositional data trajectories. In fact, an observed curve can bethought of as the sum of a smooth part plus some noise due to measurement errors.Spline smoothing techniques are used to isolate the smooth part of the trajectory:clustering algorithms are then applied to these smooth curves.The second step consists in building suitable metrics for measuring the dissimilaritybetween trajectories: we propose a metric that accounts for difference in both shape andlevel, and a metric accounting for differences in shape only.A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed methodologies, usingboth hierarchical and partitional clustering algorithm. The quality of the obtained resultsis assessed by means of several indices

Trinocular System for 3D motion and Dense Stucture Estimation

The relief of the seafloor is an important source of data for many scientists. In this paper we present an optical system to deal with underwater 3D reconstruction. This system is formed by three cameras that take images synchronously in a constant frame rate scheme. We use the images taken by these cameras to compute dense 3D reconstructions. We use Bundle Adjustment to estimate the motion ofthe trinocular rig. Given the path followed by the system, we get a dense map of the observed scene by registering the different dense local reconstructions in a unique and bigger one

If you want me to stay, pay

Devolution of political power is constantly on the political agenda in both Italy and Spain. Fiscal policy in these countries has granted specific privileges to some regions. Valle d’Aosta/Vallée d’Aoste,(VdA) and País Vasco-Euskadi (PV) have an extensive say over spending decisions, and receive nearly all regional tax revenues. Although both VdA and PV are among the richest regions in each country, both are net beneficiaries of the fiscal equalisation system. This preferential treatment is the outcome of a fiscal system with limits on taxing power and debt issuance, and is meant as a compensation for the lack of autonomy. It so prevents calls for more fiscal autonomy, or even outright secession. The economic effects of this asymmetric federalism are negative Although partial equalisation reduces excessive redistribution built in the fiscal equalisation system, more autonomy could pay off with more efficient government. Asymmetric federalism moreover creates a political impasse in the negotiation of a more efficient tax system and financing arrangement.