The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution. Finally we provide new evidence regarding crashes and the degree of information asymmetry.

Estudio de la estensión urbana de la ciudad de Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône, Marsella

Projecte presentat en el concurs d'estudis per a l'extensió urabana de la ciutat de Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône

Lorblanchet, M.: "La grotte ornéee de Pergouset (Saint-Géry, Lot), un sanctuaire secret paléolithique" , ed. de la Maison des Sciences de l"Homme, París 2001

El treball que ens presenta el prestigiós especialista en art paleolític Michel Lorblanchet és el fruit de deu anys de feina en una petita cova amb gravats de la zona de la vall del Lot, ben a prop de la famosa cova amb pintures de Pech-Merle.

Deux réminiscences des Catilinaires chez Saint Jerôme et Saint Augustin

Two reminiscences from the Cicero's speeches against Catiline in the letters of St Jerome and St Augustine.

Man-bites-dog business cycles

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it isand this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, weanalyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are morelikely to be observed after unusual events. Such signals may increase both uncertainty anddisagreement among agents and when embedded in a simple business cycle model, can helpus understand why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregatevariables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistentperiods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolutechanges in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations as measuredby survey data. These results are consequences of optimal updating by agents when theavailability of some signals is positively correlated with tail-events. The model is estimatedby likelihood based methods using individual survey responses and a quarterly time seriesof total factor productivity along with standard aggregate time series. The estimated modelsuggests that there have been episodes in recent US history when the impact on outputof innovations to productivity of a given magnitude was more than eight times as largecompared to other times.

Papel de la historia en Une vie de Saint de Roger Martin du Gard

Roger Martin du Gard, como su héroe Antoine Thibault, nace en 1881, coincidiendo con los primeros años de la Tercera República. La bistotia de su tiempo, los acontecimientos que la configuran desempeñan un papel muy importante a lo largo de su obra. Martin du Gard es reacio a describir momentos históricos que no ha podido vivir directamente. Le gusta novelar sobre la base de hechos acaecidos en el tiempo en que vive. Así, todas sus obras publicadas se desarrollan teniendo como telón de fondo el acontecer histórico contemporáneo. Unicamente en una de sus primeras novelas inacabadas e inéditas, fine vie de Sainí, evoca la guerra con la que culmina el Segundo Imperio, que encuentra su fin en el desastre de Sedán. El ambiente social, los hechos históricos descritos en la ficción novelesca coinciden plenamente con los acontecimientos reales que tuvieran lugar durante la vida del autor.